| LHB | LHB | RHB | RHB | |||
| Event | NYA road | DNYS | Ratio | NYA road | DNYS | Ratio |
| H | 779 | 787 | 0.99 | 712 | 704 | 0.99 |
| 1B | 481 | 499 | 1.02 | 464 | 472 | 1.02 |
| 2B | 170 | 143 | 0.83 | 159 | 125 | 0.79 |
| 3B | 20 | 13 | 0.64 | 10 | 2 | 0.20 |
| HR | 108 | 132 | 1.20 | 79 | 105 | 1.33 |
| BB | 284 | 335 | 1.14 | 266 | 286 | 1.08 |
| HBP | 24 | 26 | 1.05 | 41 | 34 | 0.84 |
| K | 586 | 594 | 1.00 | 556 | 538 | 0.98 |
| AVG | .270 | .268 | 0.99 | .267 | .264 | 0.99 |
| OBP | .339 | .346 | 1.02 | .340 | .342 | 1.01 |
| SLG | .455 | .460 | 1.01 | .424 | .431 | 1.02 |
| wOBA | .345 | .350 | 1.02 | .335 | .340 | 1.01 |
| BABIP | .301 | .291 | 0.97 | .305 | .291 | 0.95 |
| BR | 455 | 487 | 1.07 | 405 | 413 | 1.02 |
| BR/Out | .216 | .226 | 1.05 | .206 | .210 | 1.02 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
BR: Context-neutral linear weights batting runs
BR/Outs: BR per out made Ratio: DNYS value divided by road value, pro-rated to same number of PAs/ABs
Obviously, a lot of the focus was on the HR boost in 2009. We can see from this that despite that, it severly dampened 2Bs, and was slightly dampening ot hits in general. Although it may seem counter-intuitive that a park can have factors for BBs and Ks, it can. Things like the batter's eye, or how many games are played in the day versus night can have some impact. Also, the size of the foul ground can lead to shorter or longer PAs that can increase or decrease the likelihood of BBs and Ks (and all offensive events).
Focusing again on the HR factors, RHB got a bigger boost in home run rate than LHB. On a rate basis (HR/AB), RHB (opponents and Yankees) hit 33% more HRs per AB at DNYS than they did on the road. LHB also got a boost, but more like 20%.
Because we only have one season of data, we need to be cognizant of the fact that these numbers don't tell us enough to assume we will know how DNYS will play going forward. In addition to the general issue with making assumptions based on small sample sizes, one thing that doesn't get mentioned but really should be is that a couple of players can skew these park factors pretty significantly. To illustrate this, let's look at a list of all RHB and the number of HRs they hit at DNYS. Switch-hitters are being counted as RHB if they were batting from the right side.
| player | split | bat | ab | hr |
| Rodriguez, Alex | DNYS | R | 227 | 18 |
| Jeter, Derek | DNYS | R | 311 | 13 |
| Posada, Jorge | DNYS | R | 69 | 5 |
| Teixeira, Mark | DNYS | R | 91 | 4 |
| Longoria, Evan | DNYS | R | 27 | 4 |
| Cabrera, Melky | DNYS | R | 87 | 3 |
| Bartlett, Jason | DNYS | R | 17 | 3 |
| Kinsler, Ian | DNYS | R | 25 | 3 |
| Cruz, Nelson | DNYS | R | 19 | 3 |
| Martinez, Victor | DNYS | R | 12 | 2 |
| Zobrist, Ben | DNYS | R | 10 | 2 |
| Hairston, Jerry | DNYS | R | 26 | 2 |
| Jones, Adam | DNYS | R | 25 | 2 |
| Reimold, Nolan | DNYS | R | 28 | 2 |
| Bay, Jason | DNYS | R | 20 | 2 |
| DeRosa, Mark | DNYS | R | 20 | 2 |
| Sheffield, Gary | DNYS | R | 13 | 2 |
| Hill, Aaron | DNYS | R | 41 | 2 |
| Bautista, Jose | DNYS | R | 13 | 2 |
| Encarnacion, Edwin | DNYS | R | 20 | 2 |
| Ruiz, Randy | DNYS | R | 9 | 2 |
| Swisher, Nick | DNYS | R | 81 | 1 |
| Aybar, Willy | DNYS | R | 7 | 1 |
| Hernandez, Anderson | DNYS | R | 3 | 1 |
| Napoli, Mike | DNYS | R | 9 | 1 |
| Guerrero, Vladimir | DNYS | R | 4 | 1 |
| Wigginton, Ty | DNYS | R | 19 | 1 |
| Pedroia, Dustin | DNYS | R | 35 | 1 |
| Lowell, Mike | DNYS | R | 26 | 1 |
| Dye, Jermaine | DNYS | R | 11 | 1 |
| Garko, Ryan | DNYS | R | 12 | 1 |
| Cuddyer, Michael | DNYS | R | 16 | 1 |
| Santos, Omir | DNYS | R | 6 | 1 |
| Suzuki, Kurt | DNYS | R | 22 | 1 |
| Ellis, Mark | DNYS | R | 21 | 1 |
| Gutierrez, Franklin | DNYS | R | 13 | 1 |
| Kapler, Gabe | DNYS | R | 19 | 1 |
| Young, Michael | DNYS | R | 25 | 1 |
| Rios, Alexis | DNYS | R | 25 | 1 |
| Wells, Vernon | DNYS | R | 40 | 1 |
| McDonald, John | DNYS | R | 4 | 1 |
| Werth, Jayson | DNYS | R | 13 | 1 |
| Ruiz, Carlos | DNYS | R | 8 | 1 |
| Mayberry, John | DNYS | R | 8 | 1 |
| Cedeno, Ronny | DNYS | R | 9 | 1 |
| Thames, Marcus | DNYS | R | 12 | 1 |
Now, let's look at all RHB who homered in Yankee road games.
| player | split | bat | ab | hr |
| Rodriguez, Alex | road | R | 217 | 12 |
| Swisher, Nick | road | R | 81 | 8 |
| Teixeira, Mark | road | R | 86 | 5 |
| Jeter, Derek | road | R | 323 | 5 |
| Youkilis, Kevin | road | R | 32 | 4 |
| Lowell, Mike | road | R | 33 | 3 |
| Longoria, Evan | road | R | 27 | 3 |
| Cabrera, Melky | road | R | 70 | 2 |
| Ross, Cody | road | R | 10 | 2 |
| Burrell, Pat | road | R | 28 | 2 |
| Izturis, Cesar | road | R | 12 | 1 |
| Navarro, Dioner | road | R | 6 | 1 |
| Molina, Jose | road | R | 80 | 1 |
| Napoli, Mike | road | R | 13 | 1 |
| Wood, Brandon | road | R | 6 | 1 |
| Francoeur, Jeff | road | R | 12 | 1 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | road | R | 46 | 1 |
| Jones, Adam | road | R | 31 | 1 |
| Mora, Melvin | road | R | 31 | 1 |
| Montanez, Luis | road | R | 6 | 1 |
| Reimold, Nolan | road | R | 11 | 1 |
| Bay, Jason | road | R | 31 | 1 |
| Green, Nick | road | R | 24 | 1 |
| Gonzalez, Alex | road | R | 12 | 1 |
| Dye, Jermaine | road | R | 14 | 1 |
| Quentin, Carlos | road | R | 15 | 1 |
| Ordonez, Magglio | road | R | 9 | 1 |
| Ramirez, Hanley | road | R | 10 | 1 |
| Uggla, Dan | road | R | 10 | 1 |
| Buck, John | road | R | 4 | 1 |
| Cuddyer, Michael | road | R | 11 | 1 |
| Sheffield, Gary | road | R | 8 | 1 |
| Suzuki, Kurt | road | R | 11 | 1 |
| Everidge, Tommy | road | R | 8 | 1 |
| Johjima, Kenji | road | R | 11 | 1 |
| Wilson, Josh | road | R | 23 | 1 |
| Upton, B.J. | road | R | 33 | 1 |
| Bartlett, Jason | road | R | 24 | 1 |
| Kinsler, Ian | road | R | 12 | 1 |
| Cruz, Nelson | road | R | 8 | 1 |
| Scutaro, Marco | road | R | 36 | 1 |
| Hill, Aaron | road | R | 39 | 1 |
| Rios, Alexis | road | R | 17 | 1 |
| Ruiz, Randy | road | R | 9 | 1 |
As you can see, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez are a big part of the discrepancy for DNYS's HR factors for RHB.
In fact, if we remove them from both lists, the HR park factor for RHB drops from 1.33 to 1.15.
| Split | AB | HR | HR/AB |
| RHB(DNYS) | 1558 | 105 | 0.07 |
| RHB(road) | 1540 | 80 | 0.05 |
| Ratio | 1.30 | ||
| RHB(DNYS) - Jeter/A-Rod | 1020 | 74 | 0.07 |
| RHB(road) - Jeter/A-Rod | 1000 | 63 | 0.06 |
| Ratio | 1.15 |
Let's look at the same thing with LHB. Switch-hitters who batted lefty will be considered LHB here.
| player | split | bat | ab | hr |
| Teixeira, Mark | DNYS | L | 217 | 20 |
| Damon, Johnny | DNYS | L | 272 | 17 |
| Cano, Robinson | DNYS | L | 314 | 14 |
| Matsui, Hideki | DNYS | L | 253 | 13 |
| Posada, Jorge | DNYS | L | 122 | 9 |
| Swisher, Nick | DNYS | L | 145 | 7 |
| Cabrera, Melky | DNYS | L | 168 | 6 |
| Markakis, Nick | DNYS | L | 39 | 3 |
| Morneau, Justin | DNYS | L | 16 | 3 |
| Lind, Adam | DNYS | L | 35 | 3 |
| Hinske, Eric | DNYS | L | 36 | 2 |
| Roberts, Brian | DNYS | L | 23 | 2 |
| Martinez, Victor | DNYS | L | 29 | 2 |
| Sizemore, Grady | DNYS | L | 16 | 2 |
| Choo, Shin-Soo | DNYS | L | 13 | 2 |
| Mauer, Joe | DNYS | L | 16 | 2 |
| Pena, Carlos | DNYS | L | 19 | 2 |
| Snider, Travis | DNYS | L | 9 | 2 |
| Ibanez, Raul | DNYS | L | 13 | 2 |
| Morales, Kendry | DNYS | L | 10 | 1 |
| Gardner, Brett | DNYS | L | 106 | 1 |
| Pena, Ramiro | DNYS | L | 48 | 1 |
| Kotchman, Casey | DNYS | L | 11 | 1 |
| Ortiz, David | DNYS | L | 29 | 1 |
| Cabrera, Asdrubal | DNYS | L | 8 | 1 |
| Granderson, Curtis | DNYS | L | 11 | 1 |
| Teahen, Mark | DNYS | L | 9 | 1 |
| Span, Denard | DNYS | L | 16 | 1 |
| Branyan, Russell | DNYS | L | 11 | 1 |
| Griffey, Ken | DNYS | L | 8 | 1 |
| Crawford, Carl | DNYS | L | 34 | 1 |
| Davis, Chris | DNYS | L | 24 | 1 |
| Murphy, David | DNYS | L | 19 | 1 |
| Overbay, Lyle | DNYS | L | 31 | 1 |
| Hafner, Travis | DNYS | L | 14 | 1 |
| Rollins, Jimmy | DNYS | L | 5 | 1 |
| Dunn, Adam | DNYS | L | 9 | 1 |
| Thomas, Clete | DNYS | L | 6 | 1 |
| player | split | bat | ab | hr |
| Matsui, Hideki | road | L | 203 | 15 |
| Swisher, Nick | road | L | 191 | 13 |
| Cano, Robinson | road | L | 323 | 11 |
| Teixeira, Mark | road | L | 215 | 10 |
| Posada, Jorge | road | L | 137 | 8 |
| Damon, Johnny | road | L | 278 | 7 |
| Hinske, Eric | road | L | 48 | 5 |
| Ortiz, David | road | L | 30 | 3 |
| Morales, Kendry | road | L | 14 | 2 |
| Cabrera, Melky | road | L | 160 | 2 |
| Gardner, Brett | road | L | 142 | 2 |
| McCann, Brian | road | L | 12 | 2 |
| Markakis, Nick | road | L | 34 | 2 |
| Huff, Aubrey | road | L | 21 | 2 |
| Scott, Luke | road | L | 27 | 2 |
| Varitek, Jason | road | L | 19 | 2 |
| Pena, Carlos | road | L | 24 | 2 |
| Davis, Chris | road | L | 11 | 2 |
| Figgins, Chone | road | L | 15 | 1 |
| Aybar, Erick | road | L | 15 | 1 |
| Pie, Felix | road | L | 18 | 1 |
| Ellsbury, Jacoby | road | L | 27 | 1 |
| Martinez, Victor | road | L | 10 | 1 |
| Thome, Jim | road | L | 17 | 1 |
| Sizemore, Grady | road | L | 9 | 1 |
| Choo, Shin-Soo | road | L | 10 | 1 |
| Granderson, Curtis | road | L | 11 | 1 |
| Mauer, Joe | road | L | 13 | 1 |
| Kubel, Jason | road | L | 7 | 1 |
| Cust, Jack | road | L | 5 | 1 |
| Suzuki, Ichiro | road | L | 30 | 1 |
| Griffey, Ken | road | L | 16 | 1 |
| Miranda, Juan | road | L | 4 | 1 |
| Lind, Adam | road | L | 27 | 1 |
In this case, Johnny Damon looks like the primarily culprit in the apparent boost that DNYS gives LHB. If we remove Damon from the equation, the HR factor for LHB drops from 1.18 to 1.09.
| Split | AB | HR | HR/AB |
| LHB(DNYS) | 2201 | 132 | 0.06 |
| LHB(road) | 2123 | 108 | 0.05 |
| Ratio | 1.18 | ||
| LHB(DNYS) - Damon | 1929 | 115 | 0.06 |
| LHB(road) - Damon | 1845 | 101 | 0.05 |
| Ratio | 1.09 |
Moving away from the component park factors and looking at the big picture, a basic comparison of runs scored/allowed home and away gives us the misleading impression that DNYS played neutrally, or even as a slight pitcher's park. However, in terms of the context-neutral batting events, as viewed by either wOBA or in batting runs per out, we can see that it did boost offense, even if it didn't directly translate to runs in 2009. By how much? About 1.5% according to wOBA, and roughly 3.4% according to BR/Out.
Many times, once a narrative has started, it takes hold. I have a feeling that regardless of how DNYS plays going forward, we're going to keep reading and hearing about it being a bandbox, regardless of how it actually plays from this point on.
On a completely un-related note, I see that Baseball Prospectus has once again updated their projected standings for 2010. I also see that whatever they did is wrong, again.
If you look at how many runs they're projecting each team to score compared to the triple slash stats they list (AVG/OBP/SLG), the numbers make no sense. You can get a rough approximation of runs from OBP and SLG using the Hardball Times's GPA (gross production average) stat. This won't account for SB/CS, or non-SB baserunning, but those shouldn't have an impact of more than 20-30 runs either way.
First, I converted OBP and SLG to GPA using (1.8 x OBP + SLG)/4
Then I converted that to runs using the formula PA*1.356*(GPA^1.77), where PA = 4100 divided by (1 - team OBP). I get an average shortfall of 65 runs scored, with Houston the closest at 44, and the Yankees the furthest away at 100.
Team: PECOTA RS, GPA RS, Diff
Houston Astros: 691, 735, 44
San Francisco Giants: 681, 726, 45
Milwaukee Brewers: 743, 791, 48
San Diego Padres: 663, 711, 48
Pittsburgh Pirates: 671, 720, 49
Chicago White Sox: 732, 782, 50
Los Angeles Angels: 754, 808, 54
Toronto Blue Jays: 702, 756, 54
Cincinnati Reds: 691, 746, 55
Washington Nationals: 674, 730, 56
Texas Rangers: 816, 873, 57
Kansas City Royals: 714, 774, 60
Arizona Diamondbacks: 740, 802, 62
St. Louis Cardinals: 722, 784, 62
Los Angeles Dodgers: 688, 752, 64
New York Mets: 732, 797, 65
Oakland Athletics: 716, 781, 65
Philadelphia Phillies: 764, 830, 66
Detroit Tigers: 732, 800, 68
Florida Marlins: 733, 801, 68
Chicago Cubs: 712, 780, 68
Baltimore Orioles: 781, 850, 69
Tampa Bay Rays: 800, 870, 70
Seattle Mariners: 701, 772, 71
Cleveland Indians: 740, 822, 82
Minnesota Twins: 778, 860, 82
Atlanta Braves: 730, 814, 84
Boston Red Sox: 808, 893, 85
Colorado Rockies: 769, 854, 85
New York Yankees: 821, 921, 100
PECOTA RS are just the projected runs scored from the PECOTA standings page. GPA RS are the projected runs scored converting the OBP/SLG from the PECOTA standings page to runs using GPA. Diff is just GPA RS - PECOTA RS.
So again, I'll suggest to ignore these until they're fixed, because they're broken again.
No comments:
Post a Comment