Thursday, November 29, 2012

TGS NY: Source: Yanks' Rivera deal imminent

The Yankees are finishing off a contract with closer Mariano Rivera and expect the deal to be completed by Friday, according to a baseball official who was consulted on the contract.
The two sides have agreed on the parameters of a one-year deal, the official said, and spent Thursday trying to finish off final details of Rivera's salary and incentives.
Happy 43rd birthday to the best closer ever.   

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

NJ.com: Andy Pettitte agrees to one-year, $12 million contract with Yankees for 2013 season

The Yankees and Andy Pettitte have come to terms on a one-year contract, general manager Brian Cashman confirmed this afternoon. The deal is reportedly worth $12 million plus incentives. Pettitte, 40, pitched for $2.5 million last season.

It's official.  Who knew that pitching 75 innings could help you earn 10 times as much as you did the prior season?

NY Post: Agent insists Yankees free agent Martin in demand

A disastrous first half to the season hasn’t made Russell Martin unattractive to other teams now that he’s on the free agent market.
According to his agent, Matt Colleran, the catcher has met with several teams and gotten offers, although Colleran declined to specify which teams.
“We’re having talks with everybody,” Colleran said. “Everything is ongoing ... Russell has made visits to multiple cities and received offers.”
The Yankees remain interested in retaining the 29-year-old Martin, who rebounded late in the season and provides stability behind the plate.
Martin's supposedly seeking a four  year deal at $9-10M per year, and I don't think I'd do that if I were the Yankees.  Here's how Martin and some of the catchers in the Yankee organization project according to CAIRO in 2013.

Last First Age PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO GDP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650
Martin Russell 30 490 427 98 18 0 15 7 2 54 86 14 .230 .324 .378 .315 52 69
Sanchez Gary 21 376 349 80 17 1 13 5 4 23 116 9 .229 .282 .389 .293 35 61
Cervelli Francisco 27 276 246 60 10 1 4 3 1 24 54 6 .245 .319 .337 .297 25 60
Romine Austin 25 395 366 89 17 0 8 2 2 26 77 8 .242 .297 .360 .292 36 59
Stewart Chris 31 276 246 58 12 0 4 2 1 23 41 5 .234 .305 .339 .290 25 58
Whiteside Eli 34 258 234 51 11 1 6 2 1 18 61 7 .217 .280 .344 .277 21 53

BR: Linear weights batting runs

If you use BR/650 as a crude method of comparing them on offense you can see the difference between Martin and the others. Now a catcher doesn't get 650 PA in a season so drop that down some, maybe by about 10%.

Sanchez is probably at least two years away, but in two years he may be a better hitter than Martin and he won't be costing you $10M per year.  On offense alone, Cervelli projects to be less than one win worse than Martin.  I think CAIRO may be optimistic on Romine, but Stewart's projection doesn't seem that bad and it's only about a win worse than Martin.  I don't know why Whiteside was even acquired, although perhaps he's a phenomenal defensive catcher in ways that aren't captured by his average SB/CS numbers (30.5%).

And that segues into a consideration that is ignored when looking at offensive projections.  In traditional defensive numbers Martin's nothing special, but as people have tried to quantify a catcher's impact on pitch framing there's evidence Martin's one of the best in the league.  Does that add a win to his value?  It could.  And it's likely none of the other candidates will be that good, now or in a few years.

Still, I find it hard to reconcile signing Martin for more than two years while trying to maintain a lower payroll.     Especially if the Yankees intend to sign Robinson Cano after 2013.  

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Hardball Times: 40th anniversary: Graig Nettles trade

40 years ago today, one of the most one-sided trades of the 1970s occurred. It was among the best deals the Yankees have made – and among the worst the Cleveland Indians agreed to.

On Nov. 27, 1972, the Yankees sent Cleveland Rusty TorresCharlie SpikesJerry Kenney, and John Ellis in exchange for Jerry Moses . . . and Graig Nettles

Five of those six names you’ve probably never heard of, with Nettles of course being the exception. Nettles would play 22 years in major league baseball, hit 390 homers (including a league leading 32 in 1976), and have a stellar defensive reputation. 
A bit before my fandom, but it'd be cool to see a 2012 or 2013 version of that trade.

TGS NY: Rapid Reaction: Andy Pettitte returning

WHAT IT MEANS: ESPN colleague Buster Olney reports that Andy Pettitte is close to formally announcing he is coming back and a new deal is nearly completed. 

Barring any trades, the Yankees now know what their rotation will look like in 2013. Pettitte will fit in nicely right in the middle of CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda on the front end and Phil Hughes and whomever wins the fifth spot on the back end. Ivan Nova and David Phelps are expected to battle in the spring for that spot. 
Yay!

The big question with Pettitte is going to be how many innings he can pitch in 2013.  While last year's injury was somewhat fluky, he's now thrown a grand total of 204 innings over the last three years.  But he should be pretty good when he's able to go, and I'd imagine barring another unlucky injury 175 innings or so is realistic and should be worth somewhere from 2-3 wins.

Add Mo and the Yankees will probably project as the favorites in the AL East, although Tampa Bay is neck and neck with them and hasn't made any moves yet and Toronto's probably not far behind.  Right now I have the Rays around 87 wins and the Yankees and Toronto at around 85 (pre-Pettitte), although it's way too early for that to be of much use.

According to Jon Heyman, the deal is worth about $11M.

In other news, イチロー10億円減でもヤ軍残留1年契約

Yankees have become the FA Ichiro 26, that (39) has reached an agreement in nearly one-year contract with outfielder ya army became evident in the story of the relationship team. Annual salary plus volume observed (approximately 400 million yen) and $ 5 million base line.Decreased significantly from 18 million U.S. dollars (about 40 million yen 1.4 billion) this season but surely, you can not replace the value in terms of moneythe Yankees found, the remaining decision. As early as it is expected to be announced later this week.
 Active in the new world, and has been an increasing interest in the market now off FA outfielder Ichiro "the Yankees "Love was deep. According to officials, presenting condition seen about $ 5 million a year (approximately 400 million yen), plus the volume. Annual salary was $ 18 million this season (about 40 million yen 1.4 billion).
 I was talking with a representative of Mr. Atanashio "I get interested in a lot of teams." Next season at the age of 39 is welcome, given the track record, it is no wonder, including a multi-year, as well as the other teams were from the more favorable offer.
 There was a charm reminiscent of conditions to accept cheap and want to remain. He was enrolled in the mouth feel to the team as "here are those that come to the United States, have been ideal," even for a short time only and the weak countries March. In the Mariners was a 20% batting average up to 6 minutes rin 1 July this year, after the transfer is 30% rin 2 2 minutes. Also active in the post-season, the difference in motivation was clear before and after transfer.
 Although it could leave the results to the end of the season, not necessarily in a position that is guaranteed regular next season. Leftist non-professional, as was entrusted the defense of the mid-level players are thick layer Yankees in, the meaning of which is participating for the first time next spring camp is large. Just around the same time, there is a WBC. I was led to two consecutive declines as the center of the Japanese national team player, I received an offer compete again. World Series of earnest desire to be "the world" one another to win (WS), ready for thorough in the camp.
I think this means Ichiro has been signed for one year and $5M but I'm really not sure.

But wait, there's more!

MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees, Rivera Could Complete Deal This Week

The Yankees are optimistic about completing a deal for Mariano Rivera this week, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (on Twitter). The free agent reliever would likely earn more than Andy Pettitte, who is expected to return on a one-year deal worth $10-11MM. Joel Sherman of the New York Post and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com also say the Yankees are optimistic about signing their longtime closer this week (Twitter links).

Yay all around, even though I'm guessing the 2013 Yankees will be the oldest team in MLB history.  Maybe Cliff Lee was right.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Fox Sports: Are A-Rod's days at third numbered?

Fox Sports: Are A-Rod's days at third numbered?

The Yankees, who say they do not plan to trade Rodriguez, are trying to land a veteran infielder who can play third and also fill in at short with Derek Jeter coming off surgery on his left ankle.
However, few available players fit that description, and Cashman said Saturday that the Yankees’ intent is not to move Rodriguez off of third base.
“There is no discussion whatsoever about Alex transitioning from third base to DH, part-time DH, first base or any other position on the field,” Cashman said.
“As we approach anyone in the free-agent market or anyone in trades, we’re making sure we have insurance policies, (asking) our what-ifs?”
Eduardo Nunez and Jayson Nix currently are the only backup infielders on the Yankees’ roster.Eric Chavez, who started 50 games at third last season, is a free agent.
So, the Yankees are looking for additional help.
The team has renewed its longstanding interest in free agent Jeff Keppinger, sources say, and also has expressed interest in Stephen Drew, according to CBSSports.com.
Two other infielders – free agent Marco Scutaro and Detroit shortstop Jhonny Peralta - might be even better fits for the Yankees due to their greater experience playing both short and third.
I thought Rodriguez would play third until the Apocalypse.  At least that's when his contract ends.

Keppinger can't play short and it might be better to have David Adams on the roster in that case, even if he's not likely to hit as well as Keppinger.  At 25, the Yankees probably should evaluate Adams to see where he fits in the future.

Scutaro probably isn't going to sign anywhere where he's not guaranteed to start, plus I doubt he'll sign for one year which is a requirement for the Yankees in 2013.  Unfortunately, the Yankees don't have anyone in the minors who can handle shortstop full-time if the need arises.

If I were the Yankees, I'd try and overpay Drew to sign for one year.  He'd get a chance to build up his value as a left-handed hitter playing in a disgraceful bandbox, and as a SS he shouldn't have any problems handling the rest of the infield. They could guarantee Drew 100 games in the field simply by DHing A-Rod 60 times and Jeter 40 times.

CAIRO projections for Keppinger and Drew as Yankees.


Drew: .245/.327/.393 in 421 PA, .320 wOBA, 9 BRAR, -1 defense at SS
Keppinger: .292/.342/.408 in 374 PA, .331 wOBA, 7 BRAR, +3 defense at 3B, -2 defense at 2B

Keppinger's probably the better hitter now, and he's right-handed which might make him a better fit in the lineup.  I suppose it depends on whether or not they think Eduardo Nunez can actually play SS full-time if the need arises.

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Daily Finance: The Yankees Score Big with a $1.5 Billion TV Deal

Daily Finance: The Yankees Score Big with a $1.5 Billion TV Deal

According to Bloomberg, the Yankees are now signed with the YES Network through 2042 -- an incredibly long 30-year television contract. The club got $85 million in fees from YES for the current year, and the sale includes a 5 percent increase annually in that rate for 30 years.

That means that by 2042, the club will be making $367 million per year just to have their games shown on TV. At today's salaries for ball players, that's enough to pay the top 16 contracts in baseball -- with enough money left to fill out the roster.

I have no idea what's going on with our host now, and don't feel like spending my Thanksgiving figuring it out so I'm bringing this version of the site back temporarily.

Back to this article, it seems to me that any time you commit to a 30 year contract you may end up regretting it by the end of it.  And I don't want to even get into the whole Rupert Murdoch possibily owning the Yankees eventually thing.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

RLYW.net: Looking Ahead to 2010: Jorge Posada

Well, we've finally got the site back up on a different host. The URL for now is http://www.rlyw.net.

I still haven't moved any of the old posts or comments over, but all member info has been transferred so you can log in just like you did at http://www.replacementlevel.com.

This is still a work in progress, so bear with us through any growing pains, but our hope is that we should eventually end up with a more stable site, even if it doesn't look all that different on the front end.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

NY Post: Jeter's upcoming deal is all about the time

The Yankees know what Jeter means to them, and to their fans. Jeter knows what the Yankees mean to him, to his legacy, to his place in history.

It is a marriage destined to continue, and one that should continue, especially if Jeter has a 2010 that resembles 2009, when one of the five best shortstops ever born had one of his finest offensive seasons, when he addressed his lacking defense and responded with as strong a season with the glove as anyone could have asked. Jeter is not LaDainian Tomlinson. He may have miles on his odometer, but his engine is still in prime condition. And still has prime years left.

But over the past couple of days, the Yankees have gotten a taste of what renewing those vows will really mean. Adeinis Hechavarria, a 21-year-old Cuban refugee who starred for his homeland's junior team two years ago and defected to Mexico last year, was widely believed earmarked for the Yankees.

It made all the sense in the world: Hechavarria's talents translate to $10 million, about $2 million more than the Red Sox gave Jose Iglesias, another Cuban defector. Hechavarria's skills could easily translate to second base or center field, where the Yankees might have openings in the near future. And the Yankees . . . well, they are the Yankees. More often than not they get what -- and whom -- they want.

Only it doesn't appear they are going to get Hechavarria.

Sunday, the Post's George King, citing industry sources, reported that Hechavarria is all but assured of signing with the Blue Jays. Losing Hechavarria is hardly a gut-shot for the Yankees; whether he could withstand the rigors of major-league baseball and ever be Jeter's true heir remains unanswered, and will for a few years. It's why Hechavarria looked elsewhere that's intriguing.

He doesn't want to be a second baseman. He doesn't want to be a center fielder.

He wants to be a shortstop.

And right now -- and for the foreseeable future -- the Yankees already have a shortstop.


I don't think losing out on Hechavarria is a big deal considering he has gone from 19 to 21 in a few months and didn't really hit all that well in Cuba. I also don't know if Jeter as a roadblock is really going to be an issue after the next year or two, at least as far as blocking the signing of an amateur talent who's a few years away from seeing the majors.

I just fear a 5 year or 6 year extension that keeps Jeter in pinstripes past an age where he can remain useful, but we'll see what happens.