Technical Difficulties

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American League.
National League.

Looking Ahead to 2009: Hideki Matsui

I'll try and get a post up on the bench later today, then I'm going to try and do one post for the starting pitchers and one for the bullpen tomorrow. This post will look at the last primary starter on offense, Hideki Matsui.

2008

hideki matsui	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	498	440	73	126	23	2	21	78	2	1	56	64	2	.286	.369	.491	76	100	21	.360
2008 marcel	537	470	81	135	27	3	18	82	4	2	57	67	3	.287	.363	.472	79	95	17	.349
2008 pecota	561	489	79	140	28	2	18	83	4	2	63	67	3	.286	.366	.465	81	94	16	.349
2008 zips	614	544	95	158	33	4	20	106	2	2	67	71	3	.290	.371	.476	92	97	19	.357
2008 cairo	539	470	80	135	27	2	21	84	2	1	61	68	2	.286	.367	.484	81	98	20	.355
2008 average	550	483	82	139	27	3	20	86	3	2	61	68	3	.287	.367	.478	82	97	19	.354
2008 actual	378	337	43	99	17	0	9	45	0	0	38	47	3	.294	.370	.424	51	88	10	.344
difference	-31%	-30%	-47%	2%	-11%	-100%	-35%	-25%	-100%	-100%	-10%	0%	57%	.006	.003	-.053	-31	-9	-9	-.010

Matsui had a disappointing overall 2008 due to knee issues. From the start of the season through June 22 he actually was hitting pretty well at .323/.404/.458 over 285 PA. He went on the DL at that point and returned August 19 to finish the season by hitting .209/.269/.326 over his last 93 PA. On a rate basis, Matsui was about 9 runs worse then projected, although if you look at just his pre-injury splits and pro-rate them to a full season he would have been 17 runs more valuable than projected over 650 PA.

Offense

hideki matsui	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	525	465	75	129	24	1	17	75	2	1	57	65	3	.277	.360	.443	72	90	11	.342
2009 marcel	452	397	60	110	20	2	14	61	3	1	48	60	4	.277	.358	.443	62	89	11	.340
2009 pecota	403	355	49	98	18	1	10	52	1	1	42	55	2	.275	.352	.417	52	83	5	.330
2009 tht	426	376	52	105	20	1	13	54	1	1	47	57	3	.279	.364	.441	59	90	12	.344
2009 zips	614	544	95	158	33	4	20	106	2	2	67	71	3	.290	.371	.476	92	97	19	.357
2009 cairo	459	403	66	114	22	2	14	64	2	1	49	58	3	.283	.361	.454	65	91	13	.344
2009 average	480	423	65	119	23	2	15	68	2	1	52	62	3	.280	.361	.446	67	90	12	.343

The projections expect Matsui to regain a little bit of pop but hit for a slightly lower AVG/OBP. His average projection would make him worth about 12 runs more than a replacement level DH (I set replacement level for a DH to what a league average hitter would hit now, which handles the position adjustment I think). His projections may be a little low since they don't account for the injury that affected his final numbers, but then again he will be 35 so he is in the decline phase of his career anyway.

hideki matsui: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	468	412	75	127	27	3	19	74	3	0	57	52	4	.309	.403	.527	82	113	35	.389
65%	464	407	70	121	24	3	17	69	2	0	53	55	3	.296	.382	.490	73	102	24	.367
baseline	459	403	66	114	22	2	14	64	2	1	49	58	3	.283	.361	.454	65	91	13	.344
35%	436	383	58	103	19	1	12	57	1	1	43	59	2	.269	.340	.417	54	80	2	.321
20%	400	351	50	90	15	0	9	49	0	2	37	57	1	.256	.319	.381	43	69	-9	.299

I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy Matsui his his 65% projection, although I'm a Matsu fan so I may be biased.

Defense

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	31	LF	115	977	-8	-2	-5	-8
2006	32	LF	36	289	-1	-1	-1	-6
2007	33	LF	112	980	-7	-11	-9	-14
2008	34	LF	21	176	-6	-2	-4	-30
2009	35	LF	82	657	-5	-4	-4	-9

This has been a sore spot in Matsui's value. Luckily he should not see much time in the OF. His projection above is too generous because of regression to the mean IMO, he's probably closer to his 2007 defensive talent right now.

Baserunning

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	30	0.3	33	0.6	59	1.8	371	0.0	493	2.6
2008	12	-0.1	33	-0.8	32	0.5	208	-0.1	285	0.0
2009 Proj	18	0.0	33	-0.3	41	0.9	262	0.0	354	0.9

Matsui's not particularly fast, but he's an intelligent baserunner who's a smidgen above average.

Value

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	12	1.2
Defense	0	0.0
Baserunning	1	0.1
Total	13	1.3
2009 Salary	$13,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$3,812,413	($9,187,587)
$3,500,000	$4,447,815	($8,552,185)
$4,000,000	$5,083,217	($7,916,783)
$4,500,000	$5,718,619	($7,281,381)
$5,000,000	$6,354,021	($6,645,979)
$5,500,000	$6,989,423	($6,010,577)
$6,000,000	$7,624,826	($5,375,174)

Matsui's 4 year, $52 million contract hasn't gone real well, although that's primarily because of injuries. I stripped out his defense assuming he'll be the DH but he still looks like a pretty severe overpay in 2009.

Conclusion I've always like Matsui, although it seems like I'm in the minority among Yankee fans who want to trade him constantly. It's the last year of his contract and I think he'll end up having a pretty good season. There's some legitimate concern about the Yankee offense, and a rebound by Matsui would be a big help.

Looking Ahead to 2009: Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher

2008

xavier nady	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	486	446	61	122	24	1	20	65	3	2	29	91	11	.274	.333	.466	66	89	17	.333
2008 marcel	486	443	56	121	24	2	17	64	4	2	30	92	10	.273	.331	.451	64	86	14	.327
2008 pecota	449	408	55	115	24	2	16	65	4	2	29	86	8	.281	.337	.467	62	90	18	.333
2008 zips	425	390	50	101	21	1	17	64	1	0	25	92	10	.259	.320	.449	55	84	12	.320
2008 cairo	369	337	44	94	18	1	14	50	2	1	22	70	8	.280	.336	.466	51	89	17	.333
2008 average	443	405	53	111	22	1	17	62	3	2	27	86	9	.273	.332	.460	59	87	16	.329
2008 actual	607	555	76	169	37	1	25	97	2	1	39	103	9	.305	.357	.510	95	101	30	.357
difference	37%	37%	43%	11%	21%	-48%	9%	15%	-45%	-54%	5%	-13%	-29%	.031	.026	.050	35	14	14	.028

Entering 2008, Xavier Nady had seemingly settled into his niche as a slightly above average hitter who could be spotted in the OF corners or 1B and hit lefties well. At age 29 it was not likely that he'd have much improvement left in him. From the start of the season throuhg August 8th, Nady hit .335/.388/.566 for Pittsburgh and then the Yankees, who acquired him along with Damaso Marte in exchange for Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, Dan McCutchen and the big prize, Jose Tabata. From August 9th on, Nady fell off drastically, hitting .242/.294/.396 over his final 197 PA. Nady's final line was still a significant step up from his 2008 projections, as he wound up providing about 14 more runs than expected on a rate basis.

nick swisher	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	626	526	92	135	30	1	27	89	2	2	92	125	8	.257	.375	.471	94	98	26	.358
2008 marcel	597	502	82	129	30	2	23	78	3	2	80	123	8	.257	.363	.462	86	94	22	.346
2008 pecota	633	531	91	141	30	1	31	93	3	2	88	137	7	.265	.373	.501	99	102	31	.362
2008 zips	612	518	96	141	31	1	31	90	2	2	86	137	8	.272	.384	.515	100	107	35	.373
2008 cairo	570	479	83	126	28	1	28	74	1	1	79	115	8	.262	.373	.500	89	102	30	.362
2008 average	608	511	89	134	30	1	28	85	2	2	85	127	8	.263	.374	.490	94	100	29	.360
2008 actual	588	497	86	109	21	1	24	69	3	3	82	135	4	.219	.332	.410	71	79	7	.316
difference	-3%	-3%	-3%	-16%	-28%	-17%	-12%	-16%	34%	66%	-1%	9%	-48%	-.043	-.042	-.080	-23	-22	-22	-.044

Swisher's 2008 was almost the polar opposite of Nady's. Projected to have a big season by moving to US Cellular which is a big HR park, Swisher struggled all season, hitting .219/.332/.410 compared to his average projection of .263/.374/.490. Swisher was 22 runs less valuable than projected.

Offense
I touched on the subject of fluke seasons with Nady. Although I still haven't written the opposite study on negative fluke seasons, just eyeballing it it seems to show the same general thing. The fluke season is often an indicator of a player's change in skill although it often overstates it. That's good for Nady, but not so good for Swisher. So let's see what the projections say.

xavier nady	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	498	461	57	126	25	1	19	69	3	1	30	95	7	.273	.327	.456	66	86	15	.326
2009 marcel	550	501	65	142	30	1	20	78	4	2	35	101	3	.283	.327	.467	74	88	16	.326
2009 pecota	528	483	59	130	27	1	18	79	2	1	32	101	8	.270	.323	.444	67	83	11	.319
2009 tht	530	489	65	136	28	1	20	76	2	1	32	99	9	.278	.334	.462	72	88	17	.332
2009 zips	530	487	72	138	29	1	22	89	2	1	33	100	10	.283	.342	.483	76	94	22	.342
2009 cairo	524	479	63	136	27	1	21	74	2	1	33	94	10	.283	.339	.474	73	91	20	.337
2009 average	527	483	63	135	28	1	20	77	3	1	32	98	8	.279	.332	.464	71	88	17	.330

In general, the projections expect Nady to do what he was projected to do in 2008 in 2009. The 2009 performance spike gets tempered as he moves a year further away from his peak. His average line is a little below average for a RF, but 17 runs above replacement level.

Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts:

xavier nady: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	535	489	73	150	33	3	26	84	4	0	39	86	13	.307	.378	.542	92	112	41	.380
65%	530	484	68	143	30	2	23	79	3	1	36	90	11	.295	.359	.508	83	102	30	.359
baseline	524	479	63	136	27	1	21	74	2	1	33	94	10	.283	.339	.474	73	91	20	.337
35%	498	455	56	123	23	1	17	66	2	2	28	93	8	.271	.320	.440	62	80	9	.316
20%	456	417	48	108	19	0	14	57	1	2	23	90	6	.259	.300	.406	49	70	-2	.295

Nady's 2008 was basically around his 2009 65% forecast. I thought Nady had established a new talent level until his end of season swoon, so right now I wouldn't expect him to do much better than his baseline, which is somewhat optimistic when compared to his other projections.

nick swisher	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	602	511	86	126	26	1	26	78	3	1	86	133	5	.247	.360	.454	86	92	21	.345
2009 marcel	560	470	77	115	24	1	21	68	3	2	78	121	7	.245	.357	.434	76	88	16	.337
2009 pecota	524	441	69	108	22	1	24	73	3	1	71	120	6	.244	.352	.460	74	91	20	.340
2009 tht	565	481	70	119	25	1	23	75	3	2	78	122	6	.247	.359	.447	79	91	19	.342
2009 zips	617	524	97	133	29	2	27	89	3	2	86	140	7	.254	.366	.471	91	96	25	.352
2009 cairo	618	519	88	125	28	1	24	75	2	2	86	133	7	.240	.353	.442	84	88	17	.336
2009 average	581	491	81	121	26	1	24	76	3	2	81	128	6	.246	.358	.451	81	91	20	.342

Despite the consensus that Swisher is clearly better than Nady offensively, his average projection is only about 3 runs better over a full season, which is well within the margin of error of projections.

nick swisher: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	631	530	100	139	34	3	30	86	4	1	98	124	10	.262	.391	.507	105	108	36	.376
65%	625	524	94	132	31	2	27	80	3	2	92	128	9	.251	.372	.474	94	98	27	.356
baseline	618	519	88	125	28	1	24	75	2	2	86	133	7	.240	.353	.442	84	88	17	.336
35%	587	493	79	113	24	1	21	67	1	3	78	132	6	.230	.334	.409	71	79	7	.316
20%	538	452	69	99	20	0	17	58	1	3	67	125	4	.219	.316	.377	57	69	-3	.296

What's interesting here is that Nady's percentile forecast shows more upside than Swisher's. I'd have expected the opposite.

Defense
Since Nady and Swisher are fairly close offensively, defense becomes more significant when assessing them.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	26	RF	13	82	0	0	0	3
2006	27	RF	99	855	0	-4	-2	-4
2007	28	RF	94	748	-3	-1	-2	-4
2008	29	RF	89	764	1	0	0	1
2009	30	RF	102	835	0	-2	-1	-2

Nady's played LF, RF and 1B but it looks like he'll pretty much play only RF for the Yanks so I've listed those numbers. He's been a touch below average, but compared to Bobby Abreu he'll look like Paul Blair.

Since it looks like Swisher will start the year as a reserve, here are his defensive projections for RF, LF and CF.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	24	RF	121	1027	-1	8	4	5
2006	25	RF	1	3	-1	0	0	-127
2007	26	RF	57	414	4	9	6	22
2008	27	RF	17	109	1	-1	0	1
2009	28	RF	61	459	1	1	1	3

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	24	LF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2006	25	LF	79	655	2	1	2	4
2007	26	LF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2008	27	LF	18	137	1	3	2	24
2009	28	LF	62	475	1	1	1	4

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	24	CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2006	25	CF	1	2	0	0	0	217
2007	26	CF	59	481	-6	-4	-5	-16
2008	27	CF	70	535	1	-4	-1	-4
2009	28	CF	68	529	-1	-3	-2	-6

This is where Swisher picks up a little bit of distance on Nady, as he projects about 5 runs better defensively in RF over a full season.

Baserunning

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	12	0.2	23	0.6	37	0.7	206	-0.8	278	0.8
2008	24	0.3	33	0.2	45	-3.4	237	1.3	339	0.0
2009 Proj	20	0.3	30	0.3	42	-2.0	227	0.6	319	0.3

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	13	0.4	39	0.6	49	0.7	337	0.3	438	1.3
2008	27	0.2	31	0.1	35	1.2	241	0.4	334	0.0
2009 Proj	22	0.3	34	0.3	40	1.1	273	0.3	369	0.4

Looks like they're essentially the same baserunner.

Value
Xavier Nady

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	17	1.7
Defense	-1	-0.1
Baserunning	0	0.0
Total	16	1.6
2009 Salary	$6,550,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$4,927,617	($1,622,383)
$3,500,000	$5,748,887	($801,114)
$4,000,000	$6,570,156	$20,156
$4,500,000	$7,391,426	$841,426
$5,000,000	$8,212,695	$1,662,695
$5,500,000	$9,033,965	$2,483,965
$6,000,000	$9,855,234	$3,305,234

Nick Swisher

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	20	2.0
Defense	4	0.4
Baserunning	0	0.0
Total	24	2.4
2009 Salary	$5,300,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$7,162,821	$1,862,821
$3,500,000	$8,356,625	$3,056,625
$4,000,000	$9,550,429	$4,250,429
$4,500,000	$10,744,232	$5,444,232
$5,000,000	$11,938,036	$6,638,036
$5,500,000	$13,131,839	$7,831,839
$6,000,000	$14,325,643	$9,025,643

Conclusion
Swisher appears to be the better player of the two, although the margin is not nearly as large as some people think it is (8 runs overall if they are both primary RF). So here's a question. Nady was a type A player this season and is eligible for free agency after this season. In order to maintain that type A status, he needs to play full-time. What's worth more?

2009 Nady + First Round Pick?
2009 Swisher?

For my depth charts during my season simulations, I put Nady in RF and Swisher on the bench. However, I gave Swisher 20% of the playing time in LF and RF, 10% of the playing time at 1B, 10% of the playing time in CF, and 20% of the playing time at DH. That means he would play around 80% of the time. With some intelligent platooning and with his ability to play several positions better than Nady, this is probably the better role for Swisher, even if he projects to be 8 runs better than Nady over a full season.

Looking Ahead to 2009: Brett Gardner

He's been named the Yankees' starting CF to begin 2009, so it's time to look at Brett Gardner.

2008

brett gardner	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	469	427	55	108	18	4	2	43	35	9	40	91	2	.253	.320	.328	48	66	1	.288
2008 marcel	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	.000
2008 pecota	483	428	58	102	17	4	3	31	25	7	44	100	3	.239	.308	.316	45	61	-5	.277
2008 zips	468	417	73	112	15	4	1	27	28	9	49	87	2	.269	.348	.331	51	70	5	.307
2008 cairo	325	292	43	74	11	3	3	23	9	3	30	61	2	.253	.325	.335	32	65	-1	.293
2008 average	349	313	46	79	12	3	2	25	19	5	33	68	2	.253	.325	.328	35	66	0	.291
2008 actual	555	485	72	119	15	11	2	45	43	11	63	111	3	.245	.333	.334	60	70	5	.298
difference	59%	55%	58%	-3%	-20%	146%	-27%	18%	48%	34%	24%	6%	15%	-.008	.008	.007	25	5	5	.006

Those projections were for Gardner as a major leaguer, so I added his 2008 MLE to his MLB performance for comparison's sake. As you can see, Gardner exceed his projections slightly, somewhere around 4 runs better than expected over a full season. That includes the disastrous start to his major league career, where he hit .153/.227/.169 over his first 68 PA before he was demoted on July 25. Gardner was recalled on August 15th and actually ended the season pretty well, hitting .294/.333/.412 over his last 73 PA.
Offense
It's been rehashed just about everywhere, but Gardner is the type of player whose game does not project to translate well to MLB, which can be seen in his projections below.

brett gardner	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	502	446	75	115	19	7	2	34	33	9	54	104	2	.258	.341	.345	56	73	7	.305
2009 marcel	270	241	34	62	12	2	5	32	12	2	21	49	1	.257	.311	.386	31	74	8	.295
2009 pecota	498	430	69	109	19	6	4	32	32	9	55	99	3	.253	.334	.351	56	72	7	.300
2009 tht	506	447	66	112	15	7	5	35	31	5	56	97	3	.251	.338	.349	58	74	9	.305
2009 zips	501	446	74	111	14	6	2	30	41	8	53	101	2	.249	.331	.321	53	69	4	.294
2009 cairo	613	544	73	138	19	8	3	37	19	3	66	50	3	.254	.338	.334	64	68	3	.301
2009 average	482	426	65	108	17	6	4	35	28	6	50	85	2	.254	.332	.348	53	72	6	.300

Gardner projects below average on offense, but slightly above replacement level. Since the Yankees got replacement level out of CF last year, he may actually be an offensive upgrade. He has supposedly re-worked his swing and showed some more pop in spring training, but the quality and intensity of the competition he did it against means we shouldn't really read too much into it. It's possible he's changed his game, but we need to see it in games that count.

Gardner's CAIRO percentiles show that his chances for hitting for decent power are pretty slim.

brett gardner: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	625	554	84	153	24	11	5	44	24	2	76	43	5	.276	.374	.383	82	86	20	.337
65%	619	549	79	145	21	9	4	41	21	2	71	46	4	.265	.356	.358	73	77	11	.319
baseline	613	544	73	138	19	8	3	37	19	3	66	50	3	.254	.338	.334	64	68	3	.301
35%	583	516	66	126	16	6	2	32	16	4	59	50	2	.243	.321	.309	53	60	-6	.284
20%	533	473	56	110	13	4	1	27	13	5	51	49	1	.232	.303	.284	42	51	-15	.266

Gardner's 80% forecast is essentially league average for a CF, with the stolen bases making up for the below average SLG.

One nice thing about running the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout is I can look at the results of 6000 Brett Gardner seasons and see what he did.
OBP >.350: 28.5% of the time.
OBP >.400: 1.5% of the time.
SLG > .500: 0.3% of the time.
SLG > .400: 6.8% of the time.

I have no idea what Gardner will do this season. He could hit anywhere from his 20% to 80% forecast and I wouldn't be surprised.

Defense
Luckily, offense is only part of the equation when looking at what Gardner brings the Yankees.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2008	24	CF	22	161	3	5	4	38
2009	25	CF	40	303	3	4	4	17

Obviously we have severe sample size issues here, but Gardner was off-the-charts good in CF by zone rating and UZR in his brief MLB time. His +17 projection is probably still too optimistic even though I regressed towards the mean, but WTH, I'll assume that based on the fact that he has 80 speed and speed correlates very highly with OF defense that he's around a +10.

Baserunning
Gardner didn't really have enough opportunities to make his baserunning stats mean anything. He showed as average, but he should be better than that. The top baserunners in the league are typically around +5 in a season, I'll assume Gardner will be around a +3 since he's not likely to be on base as often as those runners.

Value

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	6	0.6
Defense	10	1.0
Baserunning	3	0.3
Total	19	1.9
2009 Salary	$400,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$5,641,665	$5,241,665
$3,500,000	$6,581,942	$6,181,942
$4,000,000	$7,522,219	$7,122,219
$4,500,000	$8,462,497	$8,062,497
$5,000,000	$9,402,774	$9,002,774
$5,500,000	$10,343,052	$9,943,052
$6,000,000	$11,283,329	$10,883,329

If Gardner's really a +10 defender and a +3 non-SB baserunner, his projections think he's almost an average overall CF. Of course, there's a very good chance he won't hit either his offensive projections or defensive projections. Still, last year, Melky Cabrera was -0.1 WAR, so it looks like moving to Gardner will be an upgrade of at least a win and maybe two.

Conclusion
While I think that MLEs and projections are very valuable and useful tools, I think they break around the margins. Gardner's on those margins. A look at players who accrued similar minor league stats left me fairly unimpressed. That's not to say Gardner won't end up useful. It's just not the most likely scenario, but I'll be pulling for him. He should be able to at the very least provide some utility as a fifth OF/defensive replacement/pinch-runner. I hear that job pays pretty well.

The 2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - American League Edition

Opening Day is almost here, so it’s time to present my annual Diamond Mind Projection blowout. The idea behind this is to take several projection systems and run the 2008 season through Diamond Mind Baseball, which I consider to be the most statistically accurate baseball simulator out there.

I’ve done this for the last few years. If you want to see how previous runs have gone, here are the links: 2005 2006 2007 2008

As you can see if you look at the prior runs, the results can be hit and miss, but that’s certainly understandable. This year, I’m again using six different projection systems, and I’ve run each one 1000 times for a total of 6000 iterations.

Before I present the projected standings, it’s disclaimer time. 1) Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players will perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can’t be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match the actual playing time of the players involved. I used the rosters and depth charts available at MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it’s a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 35-40 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do include projected playing time based on past health issues, so someone like Rich Harden is not expected to make 30 starts. I’ve also included random injuries which may lead to some of the outlying results you see, but there’s no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters this season.

4) These are the averages of 1000 seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once.

5) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn’t project well, don’t blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. I guess you can blame me for the CAIRO results if you want, otherwise you can take heart in the 2005 White Sox projecting to win 79 games, the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80, or the 2007 Rockies projecting to win 79.

6) Since this is all automated, I don’t break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild card when it happens which is why you may see some funny decimal places in the standings that follow.

OK, so now that the disclaimers are out of the way, onto the projected standings. I am showing W-L to one decimal point to deal with displayed rounding issues and so I don’t get people asking me why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430, not to imply that these results are that precise.

There’s too much crap to fit it all into one post, so I’ve created separate posts for both leagues. 2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - National League Summary

And here are the combined standings of all 6000 projections:

AL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
NYA	95.9	66.1	853	711	2908.8	1776.2	90 - 102	813 - 894	673 - 749	96	98	3058	1897	963	74	8	0	100	95 - 104
BOS	94.3	67.7	837	703	2157.3	2053.4	88 - 101	796 - 879	667 - 739	94	94	2295	2205	1351	130	19	0	94	90 - 98
TAM	90.1	71.9	795	695	916.3	1591.2	84 - 96	756 - 834	659 - 732	90	89	1009	1735	2753	431	72	0	88	83 - 92
TOR	75.6	86.4	691	742	9.4	80.3	69 - 82	654 - 728	705 - 780	76	74	14	100	410	2979	2497	0	78	74 - 83
BAL	74.5	87.5	781	844	8.3	46.3	68 - 81	742 - 820	803 - 885	74	74	10	63	320	2457	3150	0	71	66 - 76
AL Central	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
CLE	85.5	76.5	803	754	2958.1	110.7	79 - 92	763 - 843	716 - 792	86	88	3092	1619	775	378	136	0	89	85 - 94
DET	81.4	80.6	784	775	1526.9	77.7	75 - 88	745 - 822	736 - 814	82	83	1629	1751	1159	901	560	0	83	80 - 87
MIN	79.5	82.5	748	769	1017.4	75.1	73 - 86	710 - 786	729 - 808	79	78	1102	1378	1558	1262	700	0	79	76 - 82
KC	74.6	87.4	728	801	259.1	18.5	68 - 81	690 - 766	761 - 841	75	75	291	746	1328	1652	1983	0	75	71 - 78
CHA	74.1	87.9	751	826	238.5	17.5	68 - 80	713 - 790	787 - 865	74	74	266	676	1188	1674	2196	0	69	65 - 74
AL West	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
LAA	85.4	76.6	777	734	3356.4	55.8	79 - 92	737 - 816	696 - 772	85	86	3498	1607	708	187	0	0	88	84 - 93
OAK	81.1	80.9	768	755	1563.4	60.3	75 - 87	728 - 808	717 - 793	81	82	1673	2155	1607	565	0	0	82	78 - 86
SEA	77.8	84.2	710	737	882.8	26.9	71 - 84	673 - 746	698 - 775	78	77	961	1631	1998	1410	0	0	77	73 - 80
TEX	72.1	89.9	776	879	199.1	10.2	66 - 79	737 - 815	835 - 924	72	72	227	672	1578	3523	0	0	70	64 - 75
Avg WC	93.3

Legend
W:Average wins over 1000 seasons
L:Average losses over 1000 seasons
RF:Average runs for(scored) over 1000 seasons
RA:Average runs allowed over 1000 seasons
Div: Number of division titles won over 1000 season. Ties are split (ie, if two teams tie for a division, they each get 0.5 Div)
WC: Number of wild cards won. Same deal with the ties here
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation either way
Std RF: Runs for within one standard deviation either way
Std RA: Runs allowed within one standard deviation either way
Median: Median win total
Mode: Mode win total
1: Number of times in first place
2: Number of times in second place
3: Number of times in third place
4: Number of times in fourth place
5: Number of times in fifth place
6: Number of times in sixth place
APW: Average placing wins. This is the average win total to take each place in the division
Std APW: APW within one standard deviation
Avg WC: Average victory total of the wild card winner over 1000 seasons.

I'll run through the divisions and teams briefly: AL East Regular readers know that this whole exercise is just an excuse to make use of pie charts, so I'll start off each division writeup with a pie chart showing the breakdown for how the division titles were distributed. The pie charts here are for the combination of all projections. To look at the same thing for each separate projection just go to the appropriate link(s) above.
Team: New York Yankees
Avg Prj W: 96
2008 Actual W: 89
2008 PythagenPat W: 87
W Diff: 7
PythagenPat W Diff: 9
Avg Prj RF: 853
2008 RF: 789
RF Diff: 64
Avg RA: 711
2008 RA: 727
RA Diff: -16
RF+RA Diff: 80
Division %: 48%
Wild Card %: 30%
Playoff %: 78%
High W: 98 (hbt)
Low W: 94 (marcel)
Gap: 4
Avg Div Plc: 1
Are the Yankees the best team in baseball? The numbers think so, although they thought so last year as well. The pitching and defense projects to be about two wins better than last season, but the bigger gain is on the offensive side (+65 runs) based on adding Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, plus more expected contributions from Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui. So a projected 81 run differential improvement adds about seven wins to last year's actual 89 win team, and about nine to their PythagenPat 87 wins. Why they might be better than projected: We can't predict injuries, but in order to handle some of the downside risk I restricted Alex Rodriguez's playing time to around 120 games and Jorge Posada to around 100 games. On the pitching side I assumed that they will not get full seasons out of any of A.J. Burnett (around 27 starts), Chien-Ming Wang (around 26 starts), Andy Pettitte (around 25 starts) and Joba Chamberlain (around 23 starts). If those four are able to make more starts than that the Yanks should be a little better. Why they might be worse than projected: They're not as deep as they could be. Having the loser of the Nady/Swisher battle around for corner oF and 1B depth will help, but they're susceptible at other positions. Right now the rotation looks solid, and with Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Alfredo Aceves around they have some decent projected depth, but it's a reasonable question how good any of those three may be in 2009 if pressed into duty. The bullpen has some talented arms who project fairly well, but aside from Mariano Rivera they all carry some risk.

Legend
Avg Prj W: Average projected wins
2008 Actual W: Actual wins in 2008
2008 PythagenPat W: 2008 PythagenPat Wins
W Diff: Avg Prj W - 2008 Actual W
PythagenPat W Diff: Avg Prj W - 2008 PythagenPat W
Avg Prj RF: Average projected runs scored
2008 RF: 2008 runs scored
RF Diff: Avg Prj RF - 2008 RF
Avg RA: Average projected runs allowed
2008 RA: 2008 runs allowed
RA Diff: Avg Prj RA - 2008 RA
RF+RA Diff: Projected run differential delta
Division %: Percentage of times the team won their division
Wild Card %: Percentage of time the team won the wild card
Playoff %: Division% plus Wild Card %
High W: Higest average W projection and system
Low W: Lowest average W projection and system
Gap: Gap between High W and Low W
Avg Div Plc: Average place in division

Team: Boston
Avg Prj W: 94
2008 Actual W: 95
2008 PythagenPat W: 96
W Diff: -1
PythagenPat W Diff: -2
Avg Prj RF: 837
2008 RF: 845
RF Diff: -8
Avg RA: 703
2008 RA: 694
RA Diff: 9
RF+RA Diff: -17
Division %: 36%
Wild Card %: 34%
Playoff %: 70%
High W: 96 (chone)
Low W: 92 (marcel)
Gap: 4
Avg Div Plc: 2
Boston returns just about all their key players from last year's 96 win PythagenPat team, but they are projected to score a few less runs and allow a few more, which knocks them down by a win. Given the margin of error we're dealing with here, I'd say they are basically even with the Yankees, although they're tough to project given the uncertainty of some of their off-season signings. Why they might be better than projected: The biggest reason is Jon Lester. Lester was outstanding last year as he appeared to finally have regained his strength after his cancer scare. However, the projection systems don't care about why Lester struggled in his prior seasons. They just see that he did and that suppresses his projections in 2009. While the jump in his innings last year is a possible concern, I'd estimate that a healthy Lester should be at least a win better than projected. The projection systems also expect Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis to regress somewhat. It's tough to say what kind of contributions they'll get out of Smoltz/Penny and Saito, all of whom are talented but who are all working their way back from injuries. If any of them can rebound somewhat, that will help out a bit. Why they might be worse than projected: Daiskuke Matsuzaka outpitched his peripherals last year and may struggle to match his efficacy of last season. David Ortiz is projected to bounce back a fair amount but it's possible that his wrist injury may make that hard. Jed Lowrie looks entrenched as the starting SS, and while his defensive metrics were very good in a very small sample size last season, his minor league scouting reports are less sanguine about his defense. It's entirely possible that none of Penny/Smoltz/Saito contribute anything meaningful. Still, I unfortunately have a hard time seeing them being much worse.

Team: Tampa Bay
Avg Prj W: 90
2008 Actual W: 97
2008 PythagenPat W: 92
W Diff: -7
PythagenPat W Diff: -2
Avg Prj RF: 795
2008 RF: 774
RF Diff: 21
Avg RA: 695
2008 RA: 671
RA Diff: 24
RF+RA Diff: -3
Division %: 15%
Wild Card %: 27%
Playoff %: 42%
High W: 92 (pecota)
Low W: 88 (chone)
Gap: 4
Avg Div Plc: 3
The upstart Rays (Tampa Bay fans have to be tired of the word upstart by now) surprised most of the mainstream media with their performance last season, although CHONE and PECOTA both expected them to be pretty good. The secret's out now, but this is a very talented group of players and they should be in the thick of the AL East and wild card race all season. Why they might be better than projected: 23. 24. 25. 27. Most of their key players are young and have the potential for growth beyond what the typical aging patterns built into projections systems would assume. They've got a deep farm system which can help them patch from within or go out and trade for help if needed. David Price's projections are pretty conservative in general based on the little pro experience he has. Although he'll start the season in AAA, he has a good chance to be up soon and to contribute more than projected if you go by his stuff and his scouting reports. Why they might be worse than projected: They got some out of character performances from several relievers last year, and some or all of them could digress a touch. Like everyone, injuries could hurt them, although their overall organizational depth should mitigate that. They're in probably the toughest division in baseball, although they're a big part of that.

Team: Toronto
Avg Prj W: 76
2008 Actual W: 86
2008 PythagenPat W: 93
W Diff: -10
PythagenPat W Diff: -17
Avg Prj RF: 692
2008 RF: 714
RF Diff: -22
Avg RA: 742
2008 RA: 610
RA Diff: 132
RF+RA Diff: -154
Division %: 0%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 1%
High W: 77 (cairo)
Low W: 74 (pecota)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 4
Why they might be better than projected: Travis Snider is a very good prospect, but his average projection is only .255/.321/.426. He has the talent to exceed that although he's still very young. They have arguably the most valuable pitcher in baseball at the front of their rotation. Vernon Wells could play a full season. Why they might be worse than projected: They've got a lot of question marks in their rotation, and their offense looks unimpressive. If Baltimore makes a leap forward, it will likely come at the expense of the Jays.

Team: Baltimore
Avg Prj W: 74
2008 Actual W: 68
2008 PythagenPat W: 73
W Diff: 6
PythagenPat W Diff: 1
Avg Prj RF: 781
2008 RF: 782
RF Diff: -1
Avg RA: 844
2008 RA: 869
RA Diff: -25
RF+RA Diff: 24
Division %: 0%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 1%
High W: 76 (chone)
Low W: 73 (pecota)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 5
Baltimore's not really a bad team right now. Unfortunately for them, they're in the AL East. I calculate a rough dvisional penalty using the formula N - N/2 times Opponent's winning percentage, where N is the number of interdivisional games. In Baltimore's case, their collective AL East oppenents project to a winning percentage of .5495, so their AL East penalty is around 4 wins. Out of curiosity, I flipped Milwaukee with Baltimore and ran 100 simulations. Baltimore went from 74-88 on average to 81-81, and Milwaukee went from 83-79 on average to 75-87. Why they might be better than projected: They have Matt Wieters 'Nuff said. Actually, that's lazy. They also have Nick Markakis, who's awesome, and Adam Jones and Felix Pie who have the talent to be awesome. Rich Hill looked like he was on the verge of being a solid lefty starter until his back and control deserted him. While the odds of it are small, he could return to where he was in 2007. Why they might be worse than projected: Their rotation is full of question marks. Adam Eaton may actually pitch for them. They are going to have a crap load of tough games.

Team: Chicago White Sox
Avg Prj W: 74
2008 Actual W: 89
2008 PythagenPat W: 89
W Diff: -15
PythagenPat W Diff: -15
Avg Prj RF: 751
2008 RF: 811
RF Diff: -60
Avg RA: 826
2008 RA: 729
RA Diff: 97
RF+RA Diff: -157
Division %: 4%
Wild Card %: 0%
Playoff %: 4%
High W: 77 (cairo)
Low W: 72 (zips)
Gap: 5
Avg Div Plc: 5
Why they might be better than projected: Because they almost always are? 2005: +20 2006: + 8 2007: - 4
2008: +15
Those are the differences between the White Sox projections I've run since 2005 and their actual win totals. When a model misses once, it could be luck. When it misses twice it could also be luck. When it misses three times, it could conceivably still be luck, but more likely it points to some kind of systemic error in the model.
They may not project well statistically, but I think Kenny Williams and his scouts do well in identifying breakout candidates and players who are better-suited to their ballpark. I also think Don Cooper is one of the best pitching coaches in baseball and that helps them too. The projections generally assume regression from Carlos Quentin, Gavin Floyd and John Danks, but it's certainly possible all have improved tangibly enough to make those projections pessimistic given their ages (26, 26 and 23 respectively).
Why they might be worse than projected: Their young players could all hit/pitch like their projections say, and their older players like Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome could start to show the effects of their age.

Team: Cleveland
Avg Prj W: 86
2008 Actual W: 81
2008 PythagenPat W: 85
W Diff: 5
PythagenPat W Diff: 1
Avg Prj RF: 803
2008 RF: 805
RF Diff: -2
Avg RA: 754
2008 RA: 761
RA Diff: -7
RF+RA Diff: 5
Division %: 49%
Wild Card %: 2%
Playoff %: 51%
High W: 88 (chone)
Low W: 84 (hbt)
Gap: 4
Avg Div Plc: 1
Why they might be better than projected: After leading the league in OPS+ in 2004 and 2006, Travis Hafner's performance has plummetted. He's still fairly young and a rebound by him would be a big boost to the Indians' lineup. Grady Sizemore's already playing at an MVP-level clip but he's still young enough to have some more growth in him. Cliff Lee's probably not going to be as good as he was in 2008, but he also may not regress as much as the projections expect.
Why they might be worse than projected: Hafner may not rebound at all. They've got Carl Pavano as their #3 starter. They could use a little more power from the infield and OF corners than they project to get.

Team: Detroit
Avg Prj W: 81
2008 Actual W: 74
2008 PythagenPat W: 78
W Diff: 7
PythagenPat W Diff: 3
Avg Prj RF: 784
2008 RF: 821
RF Diff: -37
Avg RA: 775
2008 RA: 857
RA Diff: -82
RF+RA Diff: 45
Division %: 25% Wild Card %: 1% Playoff %: 27% High W: 85 (chone)
Low W: 76 (marcel)
Gap: 9
Avg Div Plc: 2
Why they might be better than projected: Their defense should be better with Inge at third and Adam Everett as short. Miguel Cabrera is still one of the best hitters in baseball. Gary Sheffield looked cooked in 2008, but if healthy he could exceed his projections. Justin Verlander also has the talent to outpitch his projections by a non-trivial amount.
Why they might be worse than projected: Their rotation is still a little iffy with Jeremy Bonderman's health status and Dontrelle Willis's lost talent. Brandon Lyon's penciled in as the closer right now but his health and effectiveness are legitimate concerns.
Team: Kansas City
Avg Prj W: 75
2008 Actual W: 75
2008 PythagenPat W: 72
W Diff: 0
PythagenPat W Diff: 3
Avg Prj RF: 728
2008 RF: 691
RF Diff: 37
Avg RA: 801
2008 RA: 781
RA Diff: 20
RF+RA Diff: 17
Division %: 4%
Wild Card %: 0% Playoff %: 5% High W: 77 (chone) Low W: 70 (cairo)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 4
Why they might be better than projected: Alex Gordon improved his OBP by 37 points and his SLG by 21 pts in 2008 and could possibly make more improvements in 2009. Billy Butler disappointed in 2008 but he's still really young (23) and still has that prospect sheen. Zack Greinke was very good last year and over his last 11 starts he had a 2.34 ERA and struck out 69 hitters in 69.1 innings. The projections expect him to give some of those gains back, but he may not.
Why they might be worse than projected: Kyle Farnsworth. Right now 2B looks suspect, although Mark Teahan may be able to make the transition.

Team: Minnesota
Avg Prj W: 79
2008 Actual W: 88
2008 PythagenPat W: 89
W Diff: -9
PythagenPat W Diff: -10
Avg Prj RF: 748
2008 RF: 829
RF Diff: -81
Avg RA: 769
2008 RA: 745
RA Diff: 24
RF+RA Diff: -105
Division %: 17%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 18% High W: 85 (chone) Low W: 78 (chone)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 3
Why they might be better than projected: Most of their core players are relatively young. Their defense projects to be around 20 runs above average using a combination of zone rating and Fan Graphs' UZR, something that may or not be factored in adequately in the various projection systems.
Why they might be worse than projected: Joe Mauer is probably their most important player, and he's dealing with knee and back issues this spring. Joe Crede's back may not hold up that well playing half his games on turf,


AL West

Team: Los Angeles Angels
Avg Prj W: 85
2008 Actual W: 100
2008 PythagenPat W: 88
W Diff: -15
PythagenPat W Diff: -3
Avg Prj RF: 777
2008 RF: 765
RF Diff: 12
Avg RA: 734
2008 RA: 697
RA Diff: 37
RF+RA Diff: -25
Division %: 56%
Wild Card %: 1% Playoff %: 57% High W: 87 (pecota) Low W: 84 (hbt)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 1
Why they might be better than projected: Their division isn't particularly strong, which may help them win a few more games than they project to. Howie Kendrick hasn't been able to stay on the field. The ability to stay healthy is a skill, but he may be able to crack the magic 500 PA barrier. They may get more innings from Kelvim Escobar than I have him projected for (around 80 innings).
Why they might be worse than projected: Ervin Santana and John Lackey are likely to open the season on the DL. While I assume that just about every pitcher will miss at least 2-3 starts a season in my depth charts, they could both miss more than that. Vlad Guerrero looks like he may be slowing down a little, and could underperform his projections. I've assumed Bobby Abreu will DH more than play the field, and his glove could hurt them if he sees too much time in the OF.

Team: Oakland
Avg Prj W: 81
2008 Actual W: 75
2008 PythagenPat W: 76
W Diff: 6
PythagenPat W Diff: 5
Avg Prj RF: 768
2008 RF: 646
RF Diff: 122
Avg RA: 755
2008 RA: 690
RA Diff: 65
RF+RA Diff: 57
Division %: 26%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 27% High W: 83 (chone) Low W: 78 (chone)
Gap: 5
Avg Div Plc: 2
Why they might be better than projected: The projections all generally agree that Matt Holliday's performance will take a fairly significant hit by moving to the AL and from Colorado to Oakland. While I can't speak for the exact park/league factors of all the different systems, I can tell you that in CAIRO, Coors Holliday projected to hit .334/.409/.576 vs. Oakland Holliday hitting .295/.374/.501. If Holliday's game translates better than that, the A's should be able to snag another win or two. Even with Jason Giambi at first base, the A's look to have enough good defenders to have an above average overall defense. They've also got one of the deeper farm systems in baseball, which should help them with both filling in holes from within and acquiring pieces if needed. Why they might be worse than projected: The health of some of their key players is usually an issue, particulary Eric Chavez. They'll also be relying on some pretty young pitchers who are talented, but notoriously difficult to project.

Team: Seattle
Avg Prj W: 79
2008 Actual W: 61
2008 PythagenPat W: 67
W Diff: 18
PythagenPat W Diff: 12
Avg Prj RF: 712
2008 RF: 671
RF Diff: 41
Avg RA: 725
2008 RA: 811
RA Diff: -86
RF+RA Diff: 127
Division %: 9%
Wild Card %: 4% Playoff %: 13% High W: 81 (cairo) Low W: 78 (hbt)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 3
Why they might be better than projected: Felix Hernandez is already really good, but it wouldn't surprise anyone if he became the best pitcher in the majors as soon as this season. They've shored up their defense (the projected difference between a full season of Endy Chavez vs. Raul Ibanez is around 20 runs just by itself). Erik Bedard could make more than the 24 starts I have him penciled in for.
Why they might be worse than projected: The Mariners have several veterans in the last year of their contracts who they may decide to trade as part of their rebuilding. Trading any of them may cost them some wins in the short-term. The Mariners still haven't annointed a closer. While the role is generally overrated, it's still nice to have a decent one.

Team: Texas
Avg Prj W: 72
2008 Actual W: 79
2008 PythagenPat W: 75
W Diff: -7
PythagenPat W Diff: -3
Avg Prj RF: 776
2008 RF: 901
RF Diff: -125
Avg RA: 879
2008 RA: 967
RA Diff: -88
RF+RA Diff: -37
Division %: 3%
Wild Card %: 0%
Playoff %: 3% High W: 75 (marcel) Low W: 69 (zips)
Gap: 6
Avg Div Plc: 4
Why they might be better than projected: The Rangers probably have the best farm system in baseball. Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland should begin the year in AAA and be available for a boost in the rotation at some point during the season. Ian Kinsler out-OPS+'ed AL MVP Dustin Pedroia by 12 points (134 to 122) and could outperform his projections. Why they might be worse than projected: Michael Young's transition to 3B may not work out real well. Kinsler hasn't been able to play more than 130 games yet in his MLB career so his health is a potential concern. Anyone who wants to look at or play around with the raw team level data from the simulations can download this Excel spreadsheet. And that's your 2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout. Like I say every year, results are not guaranteed.

The 2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - National League Edition

Continuing off where the American League Edition left off, here are the results for the Senior Circuit. To read all the caveats and disclaimers that you should keep in mind when looking at these, check the main post. And here are the combined standings of all 6000 projections:

NL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
NYN	88.1	73.9	832	764	2409.0	803.8	82 - 94	791 - 873	726 - 802	88	89	2539	1808	1243	335	75	0	93	88 - 97
ATL	86.7	75.3	784	727	1793.8	795.1	80 - 93	745 - 823	690 - 764	87	88	1907	1940	1620	438	95	0	87	84 - 91
PHI	86.0	76.0	816	772	1654.8	775.7	80 - 92	776 - 855	733 - 811	86	85	1769	1879	1692	489	171	0	82	79 - 86
WAS	72.7	89.3	763	844	64.7	52.2	66 - 79	725 - 801	804 - 884	73	74	76	217	624	2423	2660	0	75	71 - 80
FLA	72.5	89.5	736	813	80.4	53.5	66 - 79	698 - 773	773 - 853	73	72	89	252	678	2290	2691	0	68	63 - 73
NL Central	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
CHN	91.5	70.5	815	713	3933.8	534.5	85 - 98	776 - 855	675 - 750	92	93	4057	1248	466	159	58	12	93	89 - 98
STL	84.1	77.9	771	740	1036.5	728.9	78 - 90	732 - 810	702 - 778	84	85	1125	2060	1519	778	392	126	87	83 - 90
MIL	81.9	80.1	778	769	636.8	517.8	75 - 88	740 - 815	730 - 808	82	82	699	1619	1605	1109	655	313	82	78 - 85
CIN	77.8	84.2	739	769	261.5	208.4	72 - 84	702 - 776	730 - 807	78	78	291	752	1359	1817	1205	576	77	74 - 81
HOU	73.0	89.0	729	806	70.8	79.3	67 - 79	691 - 766	766 - 846	73	75	80	347	676	1233	2045	1619	73	69 - 76
PIT	69.8	92.2	731	842	60.5	43.7	63 - 76	693 - 769	801 - 883	70	71	66	194	407	886	1488	2959	66	61 - 71
NL West	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
LAN	87.8	74.2	805	743	3114.0	430.8	81 - 94	766 - 845	705 - 781	88	88	3246	1560	701	368	125	0	91	87 - 96
ARI	83.7	78.3	735	715	1559.7	428.8	77 - 90	698 - 772	677 - 753	84	82	1662	1751	1229	836	522	0	85	82 - 89
SF	79.3	82.7	712	725	554.0	211.5	73 - 86	675 - 749	687 - 763	79	80	609	1157	1627	1578	1029	0	81	77 - 84
COL	79.0	83.0	798	818	577.7	233.4	73 - 85	757 - 838	778 - 858	79	79	630	1162	1475	1563	1170	0	76	73 - 80
SD	74.5	87.5	714	773	194.7	102.7	68 - 81	677 - 751	735 - 810	74	74	218	555	978	1502	2747	0	71	66 - 75
Avg WC	89.5

Legend
W:Average wins over 1000 seasons
L:Average losses over 1000 seasons
RF:Average runs for(scored) over 1000 seasons
RA:Average runs allowed over 1000 seasons
Div: Number of division titles won over 1000 season. Ties are split (ie, if two teams tie for a division, they each get 0.5 Div)
WC: Number of wild cards won. Same deal with the ties here
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation either way
Std RF: Runs for within one standard deviation either way
Std RA: Runs allowed within one standard deviation either way
Median: Median win total
Mode: Mode win total
1: Number of times in first place
2: Number of times in second place
3: Number of times in third place
4: Number of times in fourth place
5: Number of times in fifth place
6: Number of times in sixth place
APW: Average placing wins. This is the average win total to take each place in the division
Std APW: APW within one standard deviation
Avg WC: Average victory total of the wild card winner over 1000 seasons.

I'll run through the divisions and teams briefly:



Legend
Avg Prj W: Average projected wins
2008 Actual W: Actual wins in 2008
2008 PythagenPat W: 2008 PythagenPat Wins
W Diff: Avg Prj W - 2008 Actual W
PythagenPat W Diff: Avg Prj W - 2008 PythagenPat W
Avg Prj RF: Average projected runs scored
2008 RF: 2008 runs scored
RF Diff: Avg Prj RF - 2008 RF
Avg RA: Average projected runs allowed
2008 RA: 2008 runs allowed
RA Diff: Avg Prj RA - 2008 RA
RF+RA Diff: Projected run differential delta
Division %: Percentage of times the team won their division
Wild Card %: Percentage of time the team won the wild card
Playoff %: Division% plus Wild Card %
High W: Higest average W projection and system
Low W: Lowest average W projection and system
Gap: Gap between High W and Low W
Avg Div Plc: Average place in division

NL East
Team: New York Mets
Avg Prj W: 88
2008 Actual W: 89
2008 PythagenPat W: 90
W Diff: -1
PythagenPat W Diff: -2
Avg Prj RF: 832
2008 RF: 799
RF Diff: 33
Avg RA: 765
2008 RA: 715
RA Diff: 50
RF+RA Diff: -17
Division %: 40%
Wild Card %: 13%
Playoff %: 54%
High W: 91 (zips)
Low W: 85 (marcel)
Gap: 6
Avg Div Plc: 1

Why they might be better than projected: Jose Reyes and David Wright may not be done improving. Daniel Murphy's projections are somewhat uninspiring but he looked good in his time in MLB and may outperform them.
Why they might be worse than projected: Livan Hernandez. Tim Redding.

Team: Atlanta
Avg Prj W: 87
2008 Actual W: 72
2008 PythagenPat W: 78
W Diff: 15
PythagenPat W Diff: 9
Avg Prj RF: 784
2008 RF: 753
RF Diff: 31
Avg RA: 727
2008 RA: 778
RA Diff: -51
RF+RA Diff: 82
Division %: 30%
Wild Card %: 13%
Playoff %: 43%
High W: 88 (pecota)
Low W: 85 (chone)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 2

Why they might be better than projected: Their rotation looks pretty solid with the additions of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami. They've got Tommy Hanson in the wings if they need reinforcement there and he's emerged as one of the better prospects in baseball (#4 on Baseball America's top 100, #13 on Baseball Prospectus's top 100), Jeff Francouer has been pretty awful the last two seasons, but he has the physical talent to become useful, although he'll have to do it soon.

Why they might be worse than projected: Tom Glavine may not be any better than replacement level now but may pitch more than he deserves to due to his history with the Braves. Francouer may get more playing time than he deserves based on his popularity with the fans and his tools. The health of Chipper Jones, who has hit .342/.435/.592 over the last three seasons, is an annual concern. The health of their top two relievers (Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez) is one as well.

Team: Philadelphia
Avg Prj W: 86
2008 Actual W: 92
2008 PythagenPat W: 93
W Diff: -6
PythagenPat W Diff: -7
Avg Prj RF: 816
2008 RF: 799
RF Diff: 17
Avg RA: 772
2008 RA: 680
RA Diff: 92
RF+RA Diff: -75
Division %: 27%
Wild Card %: 13%
Playoff %: 40%
High W: 89 (zips)
Low W: 83 (marcel)
Gap: 6
Avg Div Plc: 3

Why they might be better than projected: Jamie Moyer breaks projection systems. His average projected ERA is 4.72 which is a full run worse than last year. The difference between his 2008 and his projected 2009 if he makes 30 starts would be somewhere between two and three wins. Carlos Carrasco's projections aren't very impressive, but he's only 22 and has the talent to be a very good starter.

Why they might be worse than projected: Swapping Pat Burrell for Raul Ibanez may make them a little bit too left-handed and could pose some potential matchup problems. It's also a slight defensive downgrade. Cole Hamels's spring training elbow scare may be a precursor to something that would cause him to miss some time. Chase Utley's recovery from his hip surgery may necessitate some missed time.

Team: Florida
Avg Prj W: 73
2008 Actual W: 84
2008 PythagenPat W: 81
W Diff: -11
PythagenPat W Diff: -8
Avg Prj RF: 735
2008 RF: 770
RF Diff: -35
Avg RA: 813
2008 RA: 767
RA Diff: 46
RF+RA Diff: -81
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 76 (chone)
Low W: 66 (zips)
Gap: 10
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: They've got a good amount of young talent on both sides of the ball. A rotation of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Andrew Miller and Chris Volstad is long on potential.

Why they might be worse than projected: Matt Lindstrom's shoulder looks like it may be a concern. They'll be relying on a lot of players with sketchy health in their recent past. Hanley Ramirez has played through shoulder issues the last few seasons but at some point he may not be able to.

Team: Washington
Avg Prj W: 73
2008 Actual W: 59
2008 PythagenPat W: 62
W Diff: 14
PythagenPat W Diff: 11
Avg Prj RF: 763
2008 RF: 641
RF Diff: 122
Avg RA: 844
2008 RA: 825
RA Diff: 19
RF+RA Diff: 103
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 76 (chone)
Low W: 69 (hbt)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: Maybe Cristian Guzman will actually be the MVP candidate PECOTA seems to think he is. Maybe Nick Johnson will play in more than five games.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their pitching staff is a little frightening.



NL Central


Team: Chicago Cubs
Avg Prj W: 91
2008 Actual W: 97
2008 PythagenPat W: 99
W Diff: -6
PythagenPat W Diff: -8
Avg Prj RF: 815
2008 RF: 855
RF Diff: -40
Avg RA: 713
2008 RA: 671
RA Diff: 42
RF+RA Diff: -82
Division %: 66%
Wild Card %: 9%
Playoff %: 75%
High W: 95 (zips)
Low W: 88 (chone)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 1

Why they might be better than projected: I restricted Milton Bradley to around 500 PA a season in RF given his past health issues. He could play more than that. I gave Rich Harden 19 starts, but he made 25 last year.

Why they might be worse than projected: I restricted Milton Bradley to around 500 PA a season in RF given his past health issues. He could play less than that. I gave Rich Harden 19 starts, he could pitch less than that.



Team: St. Louis
Avg Prj W: 84
2008 Actual W: 86
2008 PythagenPat W: 87
W Diff: -2
PythagenPat W Diff: -3
Avg Prj RF: 771
2008 RF: 779
RF Diff: -8
Avg RA: 740
2008 RA: 725
RA Diff: 15
RF+RA Diff: -23
Division %: 17%
Wild Card %: 12%
Playoff %: 29%
High W: 87 (zips)
Low W: 82 (pecota)
Gap: 5
Avg Div Plc: 2

Why they might be better than projected: They have the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols, and nothing he might do would surprise me. Chris Carpenter has looked good this spring, but I restricted him to around 15-16 starts a season. In his career, Khalil Greene has hit .270/.318/.484 on the road compared to .225/.289/.369 at home. In some research I did on home/road splits I've found that the average player hits about 10% better at home, so if Greene suffered unduly from PETCO he may exceed his projections handily.

Why they might be worse than projected: Pujols plays through a lot of nagging injuries and there's a possibility he won't play as much as projected. They may get nothing out of Carpenter. Their bullpen looks like a work in progress and may cost them a few wins.

Team: Milwaukee
Avg Prj W: 82
2008 Actual W: 90
2008 PythagenPat W: 87
W Diff: -8
PythagenPat W Diff: -5
Avg Prj RF: 777
2008 RF: 750
RF Diff: 27
Avg RA: 769
2008 RA: 689
RA Diff: 80
RF+RA Diff: -53
Division %: 11%
Wild Card %: 9%
Playoff %: 19%
High W: 86 (pecota)
Low W: 78 (marcel)
Gap: 8
Avg Div Plc: 3

Why they might be better than projected: Prince Fielder was over two wins worse offensively in 2008 than he was in 2007. Rickie Weeks was a win worse. Ryan Braun was a win worse in more playing time. All are young enough to still be improving and could exceed their projections.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their rotation is going to be relying on good performances by some young pitchers(Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra), which is always a calculated risk.

Team: Cincinnati
Avg Prj W: 78
2008 Actual W: 74
2008 PythagenPat W: 71
W Diff: 4
PythagenPat W Diff: 7
Avg Prj RF: 739
2008 RF: 704
RF Diff: 35
Avg RA: 768
2008 RA: 800
RA Diff: -32
RF+RA Diff: 67
Division %: 4%
Wild Card %: 4%
Playoff %: 8%
High W: 82 (chone)
Low W: 76 (pecota)
Gap: 6
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: Jay Bruce. Joey Votto. After a couple of disappointing seasons, Homer Bailey may be able to put it together at age 23. Edinson Volquez was amazing through the All Star Break, 117.2 IP, 126 Ks, 2.29 ERA but scuffled a little after 78.1 IP, 80 Ks, 4.60 ERA. If that was due to fatigue, then he has decent chance to exceed his projections, which also include 80 innings of 7.20 ERA pitching for Texas.

Why they might be worse than projected:

Willy Taveras is a decent glove in CF but he might kill them at the top of the order. The rest of their defense still looks like a possible concern as well. Team: Houston
Avg Prj W: 73
2008 Actual W: 86
2008 PythagenPat W: 78
W Diff: -13
PythagenPat W Diff: -5
Avg Prj RF: 729
2008 RF: 712
RF Diff: 17
Avg RA: 806
2008 RA: 743
RA Diff: 63
RF+RA Diff: -46
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 77 (hbt)
Low W: 69 (pecota)
Gap: 8
Avg Div Plc: 5

Why they might be better than projected: They get to beat up on Pittsburgh.

Why they might be worse than projected: The rotation? The bench? Miguel Tejada, Ivan Rodriguez and Geoff Blum as starters?

Team: Pittsburgh
Avg Prj W: 70
2008 Actual W: 67
2008 PythagenPat W: 67
W Diff: 3
PythagenPat W Diff: 3
Avg Prj RF: 731
2008 RF: 735
RF Diff: -4
Avg RA: 842
2008 RA: 884
RA Diff: -42
RF+RA Diff: 38
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 76 (chone)
Low W: 60 (zips)
Gap: 16
Avg Div Plc: 6

Why they might be better than projected:They get to beat up on Houston.

Why they might be worse than projected: 70 wins would be an upgrade of three wins from last year's 67 win squad, which has since lost a half-season of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. In 6000 iterations, the Pirates won fewer than 50 games 322 times, and fewer than 60 games 942 times.



NL West


Team: Los Angeles Angels
Avg Prj W: 85
2008 Actual W: 100
2008 PythagenPat W: 88
W Diff: -15
PythagenPat W Diff: -3
Avg Prj RF: 777
2008 RF: 765
RF Diff: 12
Avg RA: 734
2008 RA: 697
RA Diff: 37
RF+RA Diff: -25
Division %: 56%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 57%
High W: 87 (pecota)
Low W: 84 (hbt)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 1

Why they might be better than projected: Strong bullpen, mostly young offensive core, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley.

Why they might be worse than projected: Manny's hammy. Tanyon Sturtze in the role of Scott Proctor.

Team: Arizona
Avg Prj W: 84
2008 Actual W: 82
2008 PythagenPat W: 82
W Diff: 2
PythagenPat W Diff: 2
Avg Prj RF: 735
2008 RF: 720
RF Diff: 15
Avg RA: 715
2008 RA: 706
RA Diff: 9
RF+RA Diff: 6
Division %: 26%
Wild Card %: 7%
Playoff %: 33%
High W: 88 (pecota)
Low W: 79 (marcel)
Gap: 9
Avg Div Plc: 2

Why they might be better than projected: Most of their key players are young enough to improve more than projected.

Why they might be worse than projected: Injuries.

Team: San Francisco
Avg Prj W: 78
2008 Actual W: 72
2008 PythagenPat W: 68
W Diff: 6
PythagenPat W Diff: 10
Avg Prj RF: 711
2008 RF: 640
RF Diff: 71
Avg RA: 737
2008 RA: 759
RA Diff: -22
RF+RA Diff: 93
Division %: 14%
Wild Card %: 0%
Playoff %: 15%
High W: 81 (chone)
Low W: 72 (marcel)
Gap: 9
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: Tim Lincecum was so good last year that no projection system expects him to repeat it. Randy Johnson was effective last year in Arizona and made 30 starts, but I restricted him to 25. If he can go more often, that obviously helps. It may not take more than 85 wins to take the NL West, although the average wins for the first place winner was 91 over the 6000 iterations.

Why they might be worse than projected: Johnson may not make 10 starts given his age and his injury past. Bengie Molina is their cleanup hitter. General offensive issues could sink them.

Team: Colorado
Avg Prj W: 79
2008 Actual W: 74
2008 PythagenPat W: 74
W Diff: 5
PythagenPat W Diff: 5
Avg Prj RF: 798
2008 RF: 747
RF Diff: 51
Avg RA: 818
2008 RA: 822
RA Diff: -4
RF+RA Diff: 55
Division %: 10%
Wild Card %: 4%
Playoff %: 13%
High W: 81 (chone)
Low W: 74 (pecota)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 3

Why they might be better than projected: Chris Ianetta and Ryan Spilboroughs both hit better in 2008 than they are projected to in 2009. Todd Helton battled back issues last year and was restricted to just 361 PA while slugging just .388 which is obscenely bad for a 1B in Colorado. If he can bounce back to his 2007 or 2008 level he would be more valuable than projected. A full season of Troy Tulowitzki on both sides of the ball should help. Ubaldo Jimenez has top shelf stuff but bottom shelf command of it most of the time. A little bit better command and he could be one of the pitchers in baseball.

Why they might be worse than projected: Garrett Atkins (-7 projected UZR) and Brad Hawpe (-18 projected UZR) are among the worst defenders in MLB at their positions. Greg Smith's peripherals did not support his ERA last year(FIP of 4.82 compared to an ERA of 4.16) in Oakland, and he could be a disaster in Coors this year.

Team: San Diego
Avg Prj W: 74
2008 Actual W: 63
2008 PythagenPat W: 67
W Diff: 11
PythagenPat W Diff: 7
Avg Prj RF: 714
2008 RF: 637
RF Diff: 77
Avg RA: 773
2008 RA: 764
RA Diff: 9
RF+RA Diff: 68
Division %: 3%
Wild Card %: 2%
Playoff %: 5%
High W: 78 (chone)
Low W: 71 (zips)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 5

Why they might be better than projected: They have Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez.

Why they might be worse than projected: Jody Gerut projects pretty well in most of the systems, but a repeat of last year is probably a big question mark. Peavy and Chris Young are injury concerns.



Anyone who wants to look at or play around with the raw team level data from the simulations can download this Excel spreadsheet.

Looking Ahead to 2008 - Joba Chamberlain

Due to injury and weight concerns, Joba Chamberlain fell to the 41st pick of the 2006 draft, at which point the Yankees snatched him up. Two seasons later and he's now considered one of the top five prospects in baseball thanks to his meteoric rise in 2007 that saw him shoot through the minors and then dominate as a setup man in the majors.

2007
Joba wasn't projected by any of the major systems for 2007, he was just considered too far away. Here's how his performance in the minors looked as MLEs(major league equivalencies).

Year	Name	Age	Team	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
2007	Joba Chamberlain	21	Tam	7	7	38.0	30	12	1	13	32	2.84	7.1	0.2	3.1	7.6
2007	Joba Chamberlain	21	Tre	8	7	38.0	35	19	8	17	42	4.50	8.3	1.9	4.0	9.9
2007	Joba Chamberlain	21	SWB	3	1	8.0	5	0	0	1	14	0.00	5.6	0.0	1.1	15.8
	Total			18	15	84	70	31	9	31	88	3.32	7.5	1.0	3.3	9.4

Those are very impressive numbers for a 21 year old in his first full pro season. Of course Joba followed that up with 24 eye-popping innings in the majors, allowing just 12 hits, 1 earned run, 6 walks, all while fanning 34 hitters and putting up an ERA of 0.38. No one could have realistically predicted or projected how good Chamberlain would be in 2007.

2008
Joba's role in 2008 has been the subject of much speculation. The majority of the mediots want him to stay in the bullpen because of how good he was there. Thankfully for most of us fans who realize a potentially good starter is more valuable in the rotation the Yankees don't agree, although Chamberlain will likely begin the season in the pen due to innings limits the Yankees have placed on his 22 year old arm. This is the smart move IMO.

Here's how Joba projects in the various systems for 2008.

Projection	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRSAA	FRSAR
chone	24	10	65	61	30	28	7	25	75	3.88	3.45	4	11	7	12
marcel	13	16	37	33	16	14	3	12	34	3.41	3.39	4	8	4	7
pecota	65	15	146	126	60	55	12	55	162	3.39	3.18	17	32	19	31
zips	24	24	134	136	72	66	19	33	121	4.43	3.98	1	14	6	17
cairo	29	18	121	114	57	55	15	40	106	4.09	4.09	5	17	3	14
average	31	17	101	94	47	44	11	33	100	3.90	3.66	6	16	8	16

There's a pretty wide range here, although the consensus is pretty good. CAIRO's projection is strictly as a starter, here's how his CAIRO relief projection would look.

Relief Projection	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRSAA	FRSAR
	57	0	66	55	25	23	7	23	78	3.10	3.31	4	11	5	11

Lastly, here's Joba's range of CAIRO projections:

CAIRO %	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRSAA	FRSAR
80%	29	18	121	104	50	48	11	33	116	3.54	3.34	13	25	14	24
65%	29	18	121	109	53	51	13	36	111	3.82	3.72	9	21	9	19
Baseline	29	18	121	114	57	55	15	40	106	4.09	4.09	5	17	3	14
35%	29	18	121	120	61	59	17	43	100	4.37	4.46	1	13	-2	9
20%	29	18	121	125	65	62	19	46	95	4.64	4.84	-2	10	-7	4

There's a fairly big range here since we only have one year of data for Chamberlain, but even at his 20% projectile he's a win above a replacement level starter if he pitches 121 innings. If we add 121 innings of his baseline starter projection to say 30 innings at his relief baseline, he would be worth about 23 runs above a replacement level pitcher, or 2.3 wins.

It'll be interesting to see how Joba develops as a starter. According to Pitch F/X he averaged 98 mph with his fastball out of the pen. He'll probably lose 3-4 mph on that average as a starter, so how he makes use of his secondary pitches will be key.

As far as starting him in the pen and moving him to the rotation, the Yankees would do well to follow what the Dodgers did with Chad Billingsley just last year. Billingsley started in the pen, pitched 23 games and then moved into the rotation in mid-June and made 20 starts. Innings total on the season, 147.

Value
As a rookie, Joba projects to be a tremendous bargain compared to the free agent cost of a marginal win.

Proj WAR	Proj Value	Salary	Difference
2.3	$10,350,000	$400,000	$9,950,000

Conclusion
We like Joba so much at the RLYW we sponsored his Baseball Reference page. On a pure tools level he is by far the best prospect of the Hughes/Joba/IPK trio. That being said, I'd expect some growing pains this year and I expect Hughes to be the better pitcher this season. Still, I think Joba will be solid, maybe somewhere between his 65% and baseline CAIRO projections this year. My only fear is that disaster in the pen may keep him there all year, but hopefully not.

Daily Record: Pettitte looks good against Red Sox

TAMPA, Fla. -- Andy Pettitte conveniently developed a case of mild elbow tendinitis last week, just in time to miss the game against the Tampa Bay Rays and the messy brawl that ensued. As younger players grappled and threw punches, he was safely back at Legends Field. Miraculously, he healed in time to throw a long bullpen session two days later and start against the Red Sox on Monday. The missed start was an afterthought as Pettitte threw 65 pitches in a strong performance against a lineup that included David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek. "I'm fine now; there's no concern," Pettitte said as the Yankees were finishing off an 8-4 victory before 11,036 at Legends Field. "I didn't always feel great because I got out of synch a little bit. But my arm was fine." Pettitte is being lined up to start the second game of the regular season against Toronto at Yankee Stadium. As a result, he will pitch in a minor-league game on Saturday rather than face the Blue Jays.

Pettitte looked pretty good yesterday I thought. His velocity was decent and he didn't show any ill effects from his elbow tendinitis.

Looking Ahead to 2008 - Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy was the Yankees' first pick in the 2006 draft. Highly touted after his sophomore year he struggled in his junior year which made his stock drop which was probably the main reason he fell to the Yanks at all. He did not sign in time to see much regular minor league action in 2006 but was able to pitch in the Hawaiian winter league. Kennedy tore through the minors in 2007 and made it to the show.

2007
On the surface, Kennedy's 1.87 minor league ERA is pretty damn impressive. However, to properly contextualize it we should look at his MLEs (major league equivalencies).

Name	Age	Team	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
Ian Kennedy	21	STI	1	1	2.0	2	0	0	2	1	0.00	9.0	0.0	9.0	4.5
Ian Kennedy	22	Tam	11	10	57.0	52	23	6	26	46	3.63	8.2	0.9	4.1	7.3
Ian Kennedy	22	Tre	9	9	44.0	40	22	5	19	37	4.50	8.2	1.0	3.9	7.6
Ian Kennedy	22	SWB	6	6	33.0	31	14	4	11	25	3.82	8.5	1.1	3.0	6.8
Total			26	25	134	123	59	15	56	108	3.96	8.3	1.0	3.8	7.3

He finished his season off with three effective starts in the bigs. Kennedy wasn't projected coming into 2007 so we can't really compare what he actually did to what he was projected to do, but I think it's safe to say he exceeded expectations.

2008
Fairly or not, the knock on Kennedy is his ceiling. Since he doesn't throw in the mid 90s he's not expected to be much better than a third starter. I'd say it's too early to definitively make that assessment, but I don't disagree that physically the label fits. Still, there's nothing wrong with having a third starter making league minimum plus his signing bonus. Here's how the various projection systems see Kennedy in 2008.

Projection	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRSAA	FRSAR
chone	19	18	92	92	50	46	11	44	82	4.50	4.41	0	9	-1	7
marcel	17	17	69	66	34	30	7	26	53	3.91	4.11	4	11	2	8
pecota	38	25	141	129	72	66	16	68	120	4.24	4.42	4	18	-1	11
zips	27	26	148	158	79	72	16	42	94	4.38	4.19	2	16	3	15
cairo	32	32	184	188	96	92	24	68	136	4.50	4.53	-1	18	-4	12
average	27	23	127	127	66	61	15	50	97	4.35	4.36	2	14	0	11

The consensus is that Kennedy should be better than league average. His projected innings are low, he threw around 160 innings last year. He can probably pitch 180 or so if he stays healthy, so that would up his RSAA(runs saved above average) to about 8 and his RSAR(runs saved above replacement) to about 25. I'd caution that we only have one year of data when we are projecting Kennedy which means the reliability of his projection is probably pretty small.

Here's the range of projections that CAIRO has for IPK:

CAIRO %	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRSAA	FRSAR
80%	32	32	184	174	86	82	19	60	148	4.03	3.92	9	27	9	25
65%	32	32	184	181	91	87	22	64	142	4.27	4.22	4	22	3	18
Baseline	32	32	184	188	96	92	24	68	136	4.50	4.53	-1	18	-4	12
35%	32	32	184	195	101	97	26	72	130	4.73	4.83	-5	13	-10	6
20%	32	32	184	202	106	102	29	76	124	4.97	5.13	-10	8	-16	0

CAIRO doesn't see greatness from Kennedy in 2008, but it doesn't see disaster either.

Value
Rookie pitcher who projects to be better than league average? I smell cost-effiency.

Proj WAR	Proj Value	Salary	Difference
2.6	$11,700,000	$400,000	$11,300,000

Conclusion
The young Mussina comp doesn't really work with Kennedy. Young Moose threw 92-95 mph. I see Kennedy more as a Brad Radke type pitcher right now, with an average fastball and a great changeup. Radke had two very good seasons and a bunch of above average seasons, and I think that right now that's the way I'd see Kennedy profiling. Of course, Kennedy could exceed that. Regardless, for 2008 I have a good feeling that Kennedy will be solid in the back of the Yankee rotation, and will probably end up pitching the most innings of any non-Wang/Pettitte starter.

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Lohud.com: Abraham - Girardi likes what he sees in Traber

TAMPA, Fla. - The Yankees believe they have found a serviceable left-hander for their bullpen, as they have placed Billy Traber on the 40-man roster.

The 28-year-old has appeared in five games during spring training. He has pitched four scoreless innings, allowing three hits with five strikeouts and no walks.

A free agent signed to a minor-league contract in January, Traber appears likely to start the season in the majors.

Meet your 2008 LOOGY.

Island Packet - Girardi already putting his stamp on Yankees

It hasn't taken Joe Girardi long to show the baseball world what they can expect from him as manager of the New York Yankees.

This isn't just another Joe, as in Torre, whom he succeeded when the longtime Yankee manager told the Steinbrenners to stuff their one-year contract and headed West to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Torre, like Atlanta's Bobby Cox, has long been considered a "player's manager." Girardi comes across more like a drill sergeant. No cheerleader, no airs, no glossing over the truth, he speaks articulately and tells it the way he thinks it is.

Girardi hit the ground running when he arrived at the Yankees spring training camp in Tampa. He immediately told his players to get used to running, too. Running, as in exercising.

Actually, Yankee players were forewarned this winter when Girardi called each individual and told them they had better be ready for a strong conditioning program. He was unhappiest with Bobby Abreu and said so publicly.

Yankee management felt that Abreu's lack of conditioning last spring contributed to a rib injury that resulted in a poor first half of the season. The outfielder promised he would "come to camp in shape and stay in shape."

Abreu has kept his word and weighs 10 pounds less than he did a year ago. "I feel I can move better," he said this week. "I feel ready to go."

Other players have said that Girardi's conditioning program has kept the Yankees free from significant injuries that plagued the team last spring and there's a perception that Torre wasn't tough enough in recent training camps.

However, Girardi has professed a great deal of respect for Torre and hopes to emulate him in the way he handled players.

"Joe Torre was great at getting the most out of people," Girardi told Mark Feindsand of the New York Daily News. "There was a calmness there every day in a world that wasn't always so calm."

It'll be interesting to see how Camp Girardi translates into the team's performance. More and more it seems like letting Joe Torre go was the right move.

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