2010 CAIRO Projections v0.4

I've uploaded the latest version of CAIRO, which can be downloaded here. As far as what's new:

- Updated for roster changes

- Fixed Juan Rivera's projection (there was another Juan Rivera that made his projection worse than it should have been)

- For position players, I've changed how I calculate offensive replacement level to match how it's done on Fangraphs and The Book. I used to calculate my own position adjustment based on a weighted average of the prior four years, but I figure it's better to be consistent with how other places do it as long as it's based on a solid methodology.

- I've updated the tab for the latest projected standings.

- The depth charts I'm using for my simulations have been updated to reflect all the recent roster activity through Chan Ho Park signing with the Yankees, and I've added simulated runs and RBIs to the hitter depth charts.

- I've added a tab for projected wOBA platoon splits for any players who've seen major league action. I'm using the methodology outlined in this post at Another Cubs Blog, which is a very good sabermetrically-inclined blog. In a nutshell:

1) Calculate the player's career wOBA split vs. LHP/RHP
2) Regress the split based on the research from The Book which shows that we should regress RHB against 2200 PAs, LHB against 1000 PAs, and switch-hitters against 600 PAs.
3) Use the player's historical PA distributions to figure out how his playing time will be distributed against LHP/RHP
4) Use all of the above with his projected wOBA to figure out his projected 2010 wOBA splits

It's pre-filled with CAIRO's 2010 wOBA projections, but you can replace those with any projected wOBA you want and it will re-calculate them.

- I added a tab which will let you play around with a team's lineup and bench to figure out how the entire team projects. I'll probably add a similar tab for pitching in the next update. You can change players, position and PAs and it will calculate everything else.

I'll again reiterate that the depth charts and projected standings are STILL EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TOO SERIOUSLY. I'll make the same suggestion about reading that sentence again slowly with your lips moving if you can't understand it. If you can't do that while breathing through your mouth, read a word, take a breath, read the next word, repeat.

And here's how the latest projected standings look.

Date	2/23/2010
Iterations	50000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Yankees	99.4	62.6	881	693	46.3%	24.0%	-3.6	-34	-60	91-107
Red Sox	93.8	68.2	824	688	27.4%	24.6%	-1.2	-48	-48	86-102
Rays	93.1	68.9	783	665	25.0%	24.0%	9.1	-20	-89	85-101
Orioles	68.5	93.5	746	855	1.0%	1.8%	4.5	5	-21	60-79
Blue Jays	64.3	97.7	661	794	0.4%	0.9%	-10.7	-137	23	56-76
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Twins	83.2	78.8	799	786	28.7%	3.4%	-3.8	-18	21	75-92
White Sox	81.8	80.2	738	741	24.7%	3.3%	2.8	14	9	74-91
Indians	80.8	81.2	798	807	21.9%	3.2%	15.8	25	-58	73-90
Tigers	80.3	81.7	735	752	20.8%	3.1%	-5.7	-8	7	72-90
Royals	67.5	94.5	715	846	3.9%	0.7%	2.5	29	4	59-79
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Mariners	82.6	79.4	702	680	30.1%	3.0%	-2.4	62	-12	74-92
Rangers	81.4	80.6	761	765	27.2%	2.9%	-5.6	-23	25	73-91
Angels	80.7	81.3	746	742	25.0%	2.9%	-16.3	-137	-19	73-90
Athletics	77.6	84.4	679	703	17.7%	2.2%	2.6	-80	-58	70-87
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Phillies	91.7	70.3	810	708	46.9%	8.7%	-1.3	-10	-1	84-100
Braves	84.5	77.5	737	708	23.4%	8.1%	-1.5	2	67	76-93
Marlins	80.0	82.0	762	771	14.1%	5.8%	-7.0	-10	5	72-89
Mets	77.1	84.9	744	778	9.9%	4.2%	7.1	73	21	69-87
Nationals	73.1	88.9	700	779	5.8%	2.7%	14.1	-10	-95	65-83
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Cardinals	90.6	71.4	719	644	36.6%	12.0%	-0.4	-11	4	83-99
Reds	85.5	76.5	744	711	22.2%	10.0%	7.5	71	-12	77-94
Cubs	83.8	78.2	729	712	17.8%	9.4%	0.8	22	40	76-93
Brewers	83.8	78.2	736	718	17.5%	9.2%	3.8	-49	-100	76-93
Pirates	73.6	88.4	676	747	4.8%	3.3%	11.6	40	-21	65-84
Astros	64.1	97.9	654	812	1.1%	0.7%	-9.9	11	42	56-76
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Rockies	84.7	77.3	796	764	27.4%	6.6%	-7.3	-8	49	77-94
Dodgers	84.6	77.4	714	678	27.0%	6.2%	-10.4	-66	67	77-93
Diamondbacks	81.5	80.5	738	728	19.3%	5.3%	11.5	18	-54	73-91
Giants	78.3	83.7	674	702	13.3%	4.0%	-9.7	17	91	70-88
Padres	77.9	84.1	631	657	12.9%	3.9%	2.9	-7	-112	70-88

W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
W+/-: 2010 projected wins minus 2009 actual wins
RS+/-: 2010 projected runs scored minus 2009 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2010 projected runs allowed minus 2009 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation


Baseball Prospectus thinks the Yankees are more like an 89 win team, although that could and probably will change, again. Their runs scored projection of 847 runs doesn't jive with their projected team line of .278/.367/.458. Of the 28 teams in MLB history to hit for an OPS of at least .825, the fewest runs scored by any of them was 897. Maybe they think the Yankees are going to hit into 100 extra double plays than an average team, or maybe they think they'll be -50 in baserunning. Or maybe they think the entire team will catch the Cano with RISP bug.

I'm going to be on vacation for the rest of the week, but I've asked Jonathan and Kyle to keep the site updated.