Looking Ahead to 2009: Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher

2008

xavier nady	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	486	446	61	122	24	1	20	65	3	2	29	91	11	.274	.333	.466	66	89	17	.333
2008 marcel	486	443	56	121	24	2	17	64	4	2	30	92	10	.273	.331	.451	64	86	14	.327
2008 pecota	449	408	55	115	24	2	16	65	4	2	29	86	8	.281	.337	.467	62	90	18	.333
2008 zips	425	390	50	101	21	1	17	64	1	0	25	92	10	.259	.320	.449	55	84	12	.320
2008 cairo	369	337	44	94	18	1	14	50	2	1	22	70	8	.280	.336	.466	51	89	17	.333
2008 average	443	405	53	111	22	1	17	62	3	2	27	86	9	.273	.332	.460	59	87	16	.329
2008 actual	607	555	76	169	37	1	25	97	2	1	39	103	9	.305	.357	.510	95	101	30	.357
difference	37%	37%	43%	11%	21%	-48%	9%	15%	-45%	-54%	5%	-13%	-29%	.031	.026	.050	35	14	14	.028

Entering 2008, Xavier Nady had seemingly settled into his niche as a slightly above average hitter who could be spotted in the OF corners or 1B and hit lefties well. At age 29 it was not likely that he'd have much improvement left in him. From the start of the season throuhg August 8th, Nady hit .335/.388/.566 for Pittsburgh and then the Yankees, who acquired him along with Damaso Marte in exchange for Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, Dan McCutchen and the big prize, Jose Tabata. From August 9th on, Nady fell off drastically, hitting .242/.294/.396 over his final 197 PA. Nady's final line was still a significant step up from his 2008 projections, as he wound up providing about 14 more runs than expected on a rate basis.

nick swisher	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	626	526	92	135	30	1	27	89	2	2	92	125	8	.257	.375	.471	94	98	26	.358
2008 marcel	597	502	82	129	30	2	23	78	3	2	80	123	8	.257	.363	.462	86	94	22	.346
2008 pecota	633	531	91	141	30	1	31	93	3	2	88	137	7	.265	.373	.501	99	102	31	.362
2008 zips	612	518	96	141	31	1	31	90	2	2	86	137	8	.272	.384	.515	100	107	35	.373
2008 cairo	570	479	83	126	28	1	28	74	1	1	79	115	8	.262	.373	.500	89	102	30	.362
2008 average	608	511	89	134	30	1	28	85	2	2	85	127	8	.263	.374	.490	94	100	29	.360
2008 actual	588	497	86	109	21	1	24	69	3	3	82	135	4	.219	.332	.410	71	79	7	.316
difference	-3%	-3%	-3%	-16%	-28%	-17%	-12%	-16%	34%	66%	-1%	9%	-48%	-.043	-.042	-.080	-23	-22	-22	-.044

Swisher's 2008 was almost the polar opposite of Nady's. Projected to have a big season by moving to US Cellular which is a big HR park, Swisher struggled all season, hitting .219/.332/.410 compared to his average projection of .263/.374/.490. Swisher was 22 runs less valuable than projected.

Offense
I touched on the subject of fluke seasons with Nady. Although I still haven't written the opposite study on negative fluke seasons, just eyeballing it it seems to show the same general thing. The fluke season is often an indicator of a player's change in skill although it often overstates it. That's good for Nady, but not so good for Swisher. So let's see what the projections say.

xavier nady	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	498	461	57	126	25	1	19	69	3	1	30	95	7	.273	.327	.456	66	86	15	.326
2009 marcel	550	501	65	142	30	1	20	78	4	2	35	101	3	.283	.327	.467	74	88	16	.326
2009 pecota	528	483	59	130	27	1	18	79	2	1	32	101	8	.270	.323	.444	67	83	11	.319
2009 tht	530	489	65	136	28	1	20	76	2	1	32	99	9	.278	.334	.462	72	88	17	.332
2009 zips	530	487	72	138	29	1	22	89	2	1	33	100	10	.283	.342	.483	76	94	22	.342
2009 cairo	524	479	63	136	27	1	21	74	2	1	33	94	10	.283	.339	.474	73	91	20	.337
2009 average	527	483	63	135	28	1	20	77	3	1	32	98	8	.279	.332	.464	71	88	17	.330

In general, the projections expect Nady to do what he was projected to do in 2008 in 2009. The 2009 performance spike gets tempered as he moves a year further away from his peak. His average line is a little below average for a RF, but 17 runs above replacement level.

Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts:

xavier nady: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	535	489	73	150	33	3	26	84	4	0	39	86	13	.307	.378	.542	92	112	41	.380
65%	530	484	68	143	30	2	23	79	3	1	36	90	11	.295	.359	.508	83	102	30	.359
baseline	524	479	63	136	27	1	21	74	2	1	33	94	10	.283	.339	.474	73	91	20	.337
35%	498	455	56	123	23	1	17	66	2	2	28	93	8	.271	.320	.440	62	80	9	.316
20%	456	417	48	108	19	0	14	57	1	2	23	90	6	.259	.300	.406	49	70	-2	.295

Nady's 2008 was basically around his 2009 65% forecast. I thought Nady had established a new talent level until his end of season swoon, so right now I wouldn't expect him to do much better than his baseline, which is somewhat optimistic when compared to his other projections.

nick swisher	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	602	511	86	126	26	1	26	78	3	1	86	133	5	.247	.360	.454	86	92	21	.345
2009 marcel	560	470	77	115	24	1	21	68	3	2	78	121	7	.245	.357	.434	76	88	16	.337
2009 pecota	524	441	69	108	22	1	24	73	3	1	71	120	6	.244	.352	.460	74	91	20	.340
2009 tht	565	481	70	119	25	1	23	75	3	2	78	122	6	.247	.359	.447	79	91	19	.342
2009 zips	617	524	97	133	29	2	27	89	3	2	86	140	7	.254	.366	.471	91	96	25	.352
2009 cairo	618	519	88	125	28	1	24	75	2	2	86	133	7	.240	.353	.442	84	88	17	.336
2009 average	581	491	81	121	26	1	24	76	3	2	81	128	6	.246	.358	.451	81	91	20	.342

Despite the consensus that Swisher is clearly better than Nady offensively, his average projection is only about 3 runs better over a full season, which is well within the margin of error of projections.

nick swisher: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	631	530	100	139	34	3	30	86	4	1	98	124	10	.262	.391	.507	105	108	36	.376
65%	625	524	94	132	31	2	27	80	3	2	92	128	9	.251	.372	.474	94	98	27	.356
baseline	618	519	88	125	28	1	24	75	2	2	86	133	7	.240	.353	.442	84	88	17	.336
35%	587	493	79	113	24	1	21	67	1	3	78	132	6	.230	.334	.409	71	79	7	.316
20%	538	452	69	99	20	0	17	58	1	3	67	125	4	.219	.316	.377	57	69	-3	.296

What's interesting here is that Nady's percentile forecast shows more upside than Swisher's. I'd have expected the opposite.

Defense
Since Nady and Swisher are fairly close offensively, defense becomes more significant when assessing them.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	26	RF	13	82	0	0	0	3
2006	27	RF	99	855	0	-4	-2	-4
2007	28	RF	94	748	-3	-1	-2	-4
2008	29	RF	89	764	1	0	0	1
2009	30	RF	102	835	0	-2	-1	-2

Nady's played LF, RF and 1B but it looks like he'll pretty much play only RF for the Yanks so I've listed those numbers. He's been a touch below average, but compared to Bobby Abreu he'll look like Paul Blair.

Since it looks like Swisher will start the year as a reserve, here are his defensive projections for RF, LF and CF.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	24	RF	121	1027	-1	8	4	5
2006	25	RF	1	3	-1	0	0	-127
2007	26	RF	57	414	4	9	6	22
2008	27	RF	17	109	1	-1	0	1
2009	28	RF	61	459	1	1	1	3

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	24	LF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2006	25	LF	79	655	2	1	2	4
2007	26	LF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2008	27	LF	18	137	1	3	2	24
2009	28	LF	62	475	1	1	1	4

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	24	CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2006	25	CF	1	2	0	0	0	217
2007	26	CF	59	481	-6	-4	-5	-16
2008	27	CF	70	535	1	-4	-1	-4
2009	28	CF	68	529	-1	-3	-2	-6

This is where Swisher picks up a little bit of distance on Nady, as he projects about 5 runs better defensively in RF over a full season.

Baserunning

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	12	0.2	23	0.6	37	0.7	206	-0.8	278	0.8
2008	24	0.3	33	0.2	45	-3.4	237	1.3	339	0.0
2009 Proj	20	0.3	30	0.3	42	-2.0	227	0.6	319	0.3

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	13	0.4	39	0.6	49	0.7	337	0.3	438	1.3
2008	27	0.2	31	0.1	35	1.2	241	0.4	334	0.0
2009 Proj	22	0.3	34	0.3	40	1.1	273	0.3	369	0.4

Looks like they're essentially the same baserunner.

Value
Xavier Nady

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	17	1.7
Defense	-1	-0.1
Baserunning	0	0.0
Total	16	1.6
2009 Salary	$6,550,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$4,927,617	($1,622,383)
$3,500,000	$5,748,887	($801,114)
$4,000,000	$6,570,156	$20,156
$4,500,000	$7,391,426	$841,426
$5,000,000	$8,212,695	$1,662,695
$5,500,000	$9,033,965	$2,483,965
$6,000,000	$9,855,234	$3,305,234

Nick Swisher

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	20	2.0
Defense	4	0.4
Baserunning	0	0.0
Total	24	2.4
2009 Salary	$5,300,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$7,162,821	$1,862,821
$3,500,000	$8,356,625	$3,056,625
$4,000,000	$9,550,429	$4,250,429
$4,500,000	$10,744,232	$5,444,232
$5,000,000	$11,938,036	$6,638,036
$5,500,000	$13,131,839	$7,831,839
$6,000,000	$14,325,643	$9,025,643

Conclusion
Swisher appears to be the better player of the two, although the margin is not nearly as large as some people think it is (8 runs overall if they are both primary RF). So here's a question. Nady was a type A player this season and is eligible for free agency after this season. In order to maintain that type A status, he needs to play full-time. What's worth more?

2009 Nady + First Round Pick?
2009 Swisher?

For my depth charts during my season simulations, I put Nady in RF and Swisher on the bench. However, I gave Swisher 20% of the playing time in LF and RF, 10% of the playing time at 1B, 10% of the playing time in CF, and 20% of the playing time at DH. That means he would play around 80% of the time. With some intelligent platooning and with his ability to play several positions better than Nady, this is probably the better role for Swisher, even if he projects to be 8 runs better than Nady over a full season.