2008
| hideki matsui | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA |
| 2008 chone | 498 | 440 | 73 | 126 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 78 | 2 | 1 | 56 | 64 | 2 | .286 | .369 | .491 | 76 | 100 | 21 | .360 |
| 2008 marcel | 537 | 470 | 81 | 135 | 27 | 3 | 18 | 82 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 67 | 3 | .287 | .363 | .472 | 79 | 95 | 17 | .349 |
| 2008 pecota | 561 | 489 | 79 | 140 | 28 | 2 | 18 | 83 | 4 | 2 | 63 | 67 | 3 | .286 | .366 | .465 | 81 | 94 | 16 | .349 |
| 2008 zips | 614 | 544 | 95 | 158 | 33 | 4 | 20 | 106 | 2 | 2 | 67 | 71 | 3 | .290 | .371 | .476 | 92 | 97 | 19 | .357 |
| 2008 cairo | 539 | 470 | 80 | 135 | 27 | 2 | 21 | 84 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 68 | 2 | .286 | .367 | .484 | 81 | 98 | 20 | .355 |
| 2008 average | 550 | 483 | 82 | 139 | 27 | 3 | 20 | 86 | 3 | 2 | 61 | 68 | 3 | .287 | .367 | .478 | 82 | 97 | 19 | .354 |
| 2008 actual | 378 | 337 | 43 | 99 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 47 | 3 | .294 | .370 | .424 | 51 | 88 | 10 | .344 |
| difference | -31% | -30% | -47% | 2% | -11% | -100% | -35% | -25% | -100% | -100% | -10% | 0% | 57% | .006 | .003 | -.053 | -31 | -9 | -9 | -.010 |
Matsui had a disappointing overall 2008 due to knee issues. From the start of the season through June 22 he actually was hitting pretty well at .323/.404/.458 over 285 PA. He went on the DL at that point and returned August 19 to finish the season by hitting .209/.269/.326 over his last 93 PA. On a rate basis, Matsui was about 9 runs worse then projected, although if you look at just his pre-injury splits and pro-rate them to a full season he would have been 17 runs more valuable than projected over 650 PA.
Offense
| hideki matsui | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA |
| 2009 chone | 525 | 465 | 75 | 129 | 24 | 1 | 17 | 75 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 65 | 3 | .277 | .360 | .443 | 72 | 90 | 11 | .342 |
| 2009 marcel | 452 | 397 | 60 | 110 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 61 | 3 | 1 | 48 | 60 | 4 | .277 | .358 | .443 | 62 | 89 | 11 | .340 |
| 2009 pecota | 403 | 355 | 49 | 98 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 52 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 55 | 2 | .275 | .352 | .417 | 52 | 83 | 5 | .330 |
| 2009 tht | 426 | 376 | 52 | 105 | 20 | 1 | 13 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 47 | 57 | 3 | .279 | .364 | .441 | 59 | 90 | 12 | .344 |
| 2009 zips | 614 | 544 | 95 | 158 | 33 | 4 | 20 | 106 | 2 | 2 | 67 | 71 | 3 | .290 | .371 | .476 | 92 | 97 | 19 | .357 |
| 2009 cairo | 459 | 403 | 66 | 114 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 2 | 1 | 49 | 58 | 3 | .283 | .361 | .454 | 65 | 91 | 13 | .344 |
| 2009 average | 480 | 423 | 65 | 119 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 68 | 2 | 1 | 52 | 62 | 3 | .280 | .361 | .446 | 67 | 90 | 12 | .343 |
The projections expect Matsui to regain a little bit of pop but hit for a slightly lower AVG/OBP. His average projection would make him worth about 12 runs more than a replacement level DH (I set replacement level for a DH to what a league average hitter would hit now, which handles the position adjustment I think). His projections may be a little low since they don't account for the injury that affected his final numbers, but then again he will be 35 so he is in the decline phase of his career anyway.
| hideki matsui: cairo %iles | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA |
| 80% | 468 | 412 | 75 | 127 | 27 | 3 | 19 | 74 | 3 | 0 | 57 | 52 | 4 | .309 | .403 | .527 | 82 | 113 | 35 | .389 |
| 65% | 464 | 407 | 70 | 121 | 24 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 2 | 0 | 53 | 55 | 3 | .296 | .382 | .490 | 73 | 102 | 24 | .367 |
| baseline | 459 | 403 | 66 | 114 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 2 | 1 | 49 | 58 | 3 | .283 | .361 | .454 | 65 | 91 | 13 | .344 |
| 35% | 436 | 383 | 58 | 103 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 57 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 59 | 2 | .269 | .340 | .417 | 54 | 80 | 2 | .321 |
| 20% | 400 | 351 | 50 | 90 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 49 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 57 | 1 | .256 | .319 | .381 | 43 | 69 | -9 | .299 |
I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy Matsui his his 65% projection, although I'm a Matsu fan so I may be biased.
Defense
| Year | Age | Pos | GP | Inn | RS (ZR) | RS (UZR) | Avg (ZR/UZR) | p162 |
| 2005 | 31 | LF | 115 | 977 | -8 | -2 | -5 | -8 |
| 2006 | 32 | LF | 36 | 289 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -6 |
| 2007 | 33 | LF | 112 | 980 | -7 | -11 | -9 | -14 |
| 2008 | 34 | LF | 21 | 176 | -6 | -2 | -4 | -30 |
| 2009 | 35 | LF | 82 | 657 | -5 | -4 | -4 | -9 |
This has been a sore spot in Matsui's value. Luckily he should not see much time in the OF. His projection above is too generous because of regression to the mean IMO, he's probably closer to his 2007 defensive talent right now.
Baserunning
| Year | GA_OPPS | EQGAR | AA_OPPS | EQAAR | HA_OPPS | EQHAR | OA_OPPS | EQOAR | OPPS | EQBRR |
| 2007 | 30 | 0.3 | 33 | 0.6 | 59 | 1.8 | 371 | 0.0 | 493 | 2.6 |
| 2008 | 12 | -0.1 | 33 | -0.8 | 32 | 0.5 | 208 | -0.1 | 285 | 0.0 |
| 2009 Proj | 18 | 0.0 | 33 | -0.3 | 41 | 0.9 | 262 | 0.0 | 354 | 0.9 |
Matsui's not particularly fast, but he's an intelligent baserunner who's a smidgen above average.
Value
| Category | Runs | Wins |
| Offense | 12 | 1.2 |
| Defense | 0 | 0.0 |
| Baserunning | 1 | 0.1 |
| Total | 13 | 1.3 |
| 2009 Salary | $13,000,000 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $3,812,413 | ($9,187,587) |
| $3,500,000 | $4,447,815 | ($8,552,185) |
| $4,000,000 | $5,083,217 | ($7,916,783) |
| $4,500,000 | $5,718,619 | ($7,281,381) |
| $5,000,000 | $6,354,021 | ($6,645,979) |
| $5,500,000 | $6,989,423 | ($6,010,577) |
| $6,000,000 | $7,624,826 | ($5,375,174) |
Matsui's 4 year, $52 million contract hasn't gone real well, although that's primarily because of injuries. I stripped out his defense assuming he'll be the DH but he still looks like a pretty severe overpay in 2009.
Conclusion
I've always like Matsui, although it seems like I'm in the minority among Yankee fans who want to trade him constantly. It's the last year of his contract and I think he'll end up having a pretty good season. There's some legitimate concern about the Yankee offense, and a rebound by Matsui would be a big help.
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