Looking Ahead to 2009: Brett Gardner

He's been named the Yankees' starting CF to begin 2009, so it's time to look at Brett Gardner.



2008

brett gardner	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	469	427	55	108	18	4	2	43	35	9	40	91	2	.253	.320	.328	48	66	1	.288
2008 marcel	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	.000
2008 pecota	483	428	58	102	17	4	3	31	25	7	44	100	3	.239	.308	.316	45	61	-5	.277
2008 zips	468	417	73	112	15	4	1	27	28	9	49	87	2	.269	.348	.331	51	70	5	.307
2008 cairo	325	292	43	74	11	3	3	23	9	3	30	61	2	.253	.325	.335	32	65	-1	.293
2008 average	349	313	46	79	12	3	2	25	19	5	33	68	2	.253	.325	.328	35	66	0	.291
2008 actual	555	485	72	119	15	11	2	45	43	11	63	111	3	.245	.333	.334	60	70	5	.298
difference	59%	55%	58%	-3%	-20%	146%	-27%	18%	48%	34%	24%	6%	15%	-.008	.008	.007	25	5	5	.006

Those projections were for Gardner as a major leaguer, so I added his 2008 MLE to his MLB performance for comparison's sake. As you can see, Gardner exceed his projections slightly, somewhere around 4 runs better than expected over a full season. That includes the disastrous start to his major league career, where he hit .153/.227/.169 over his first 68 PA before he was demoted on July 25. Gardner was recalled on August 15th and actually ended the season pretty well, hitting .294/.333/.412 over his last 73 PA.


Offense

It's been rehashed just about everywhere, but Gardner is the type of player whose game does not project to translate well to MLB, which can be seen in his projections below.

brett gardner	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	502	446	75	115	19	7	2	34	33	9	54	104	2	.258	.341	.345	56	73	7	.305
2009 marcel	270	241	34	62	12	2	5	32	12	2	21	49	1	.257	.311	.386	31	74	8	.295
2009 pecota	498	430	69	109	19	6	4	32	32	9	55	99	3	.253	.334	.351	56	72	7	.300
2009 tht	506	447	66	112	15	7	5	35	31	5	56	97	3	.251	.338	.349	58	74	9	.305
2009 zips	501	446	74	111	14	6	2	30	41	8	53	101	2	.249	.331	.321	53	69	4	.294
2009 cairo	613	544	73	138	19	8	3	37	19	3	66	50	3	.254	.338	.334	64	68	3	.301
2009 average	482	426	65	108	17	6	4	35	28	6	50	85	2	.254	.332	.348	53	72	6	.300

Gardner projects below average on offense, but slightly above replacement level. Since the Yankees got replacement level out of CF last year, he may actually be an offensive upgrade. He has supposedly re-worked his swing and showed some more pop in spring training, but the quality and intensity of the competition he did it against means we shouldn't really read too much into it. It's possible he's changed his game, but we need to see it in games that count.



Gardner's CAIRO percentiles show that his chances for hitting for decent power are pretty slim.

brett gardner: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	625	554	84	153	24	11	5	44	24	2	76	43	5	.276	.374	.383	82	86	20	.337
65%	619	549	79	145	21	9	4	41	21	2	71	46	4	.265	.356	.358	73	77	11	.319
baseline	613	544	73	138	19	8	3	37	19	3	66	50	3	.254	.338	.334	64	68	3	.301
35%	583	516	66	126	16	6	2	32	16	4	59	50	2	.243	.321	.309	53	60	-6	.284
20%	533	473	56	110	13	4	1	27	13	5	51	49	1	.232	.303	.284	42	51	-15	.266

Gardner's 80% forecast is essentially league average for a CF, with the stolen bases making up for the below average SLG.


One nice thing about running the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout is I can look at the results of 6000 Brett Gardner seasons and see what he did.

OBP >.350: 28.5% of the time.

OBP >.400: 1.5% of the time.

SLG > .500: 0.3% of the time.

SLG > .400: 6.8% of the time.



I have no idea what Gardner will do this season. He could hit anywhere from his 20% to 80% forecast and I wouldn't be surprised.



Defense
Luckily, offense is only part of the equation when looking at what Gardner brings the Yankees.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2008	24	CF	22	161	3	5	4	38
2009	25	CF	40	303	3	4	4	17

Obviously we have severe sample size issues here, but Gardner was off-the-charts good in CF by zone rating and UZR in his brief MLB time. His +17 projection is probably still too optimistic even though I regressed towards the mean, but WTH, I'll assume that based on the fact that he has 80 speed and speed correlates very highly with OF defense that he's around a +10.



Baserunning

Gardner didn't really have enough opportunities to make his baserunning stats mean anything. He showed as average, but he should be better than that. The top baserunners in the league are typically around +5 in a season, I'll assume Gardner will be around a +3 since he's not likely to be on base as often as those runners.



Value

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	6	0.6
Defense	10	1.0
Baserunning	3	0.3
Total	19	1.9
2009 Salary	$400,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$5,641,665	$5,241,665
$3,500,000	$6,581,942	$6,181,942
$4,000,000	$7,522,219	$7,122,219
$4,500,000	$8,462,497	$8,062,497
$5,000,000	$9,402,774	$9,002,774
$5,500,000	$10,343,052	$9,943,052
$6,000,000	$11,283,329	$10,883,329

If Gardner's really a +10 defender and a +3 non-SB baserunner, his projections think he's almost an average overall CF. Of course, there's a very good chance he won't hit either his offensive projections or defensive projections. Still, last year, Melky Cabrera was -0.1 WAR, so it looks like moving to Gardner will be an upgrade of at least a win and maybe two.



Conclusion

While I think that MLEs and projections are very valuable and useful tools, I think they break around the margins. Gardner's on those margins. A look at players who accrued similar minor league stats left me fairly unimpressed. That's not to say Gardner won't end up useful. It's just not the most likely scenario, but I'll be pulling for him. He should be able to at the very least provide some utility as a fifth OF/defensive replacement/pinch-runner. I hear that job pays pretty well.