Friday, February 12, 2010

Zone Rating for Shortstops ages 36+

Following up on the previous post, I figured I'd post a list of shortstops and their zone rating for ages 36 through the end of their careers. We only have zone rating data going back to 1987, so this list is somewhat limited. If you're unfamiliar with zone rating, the following two articles by Chris Dial at Baseball Think Factory are required reading IMO.

What is Zone Rating? and Dr. StrangeGlove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Zone Rating

These are the career totals for everyone who played at least an inning at shortstop from age 36 on since 1987. Standard caveats about defensive metrics apply, etc.,

Last,First GPGS InningsPO AE DPPM CHZR DiffRS
Smith, Ozzie 745 592 6360.3 1224 2213 72 453 2069 2345 .882 102 73
Vizquel, Omar 767 730 6443.7 1091 2115 41 473 2005 2295 .874 84 64
Bordick, Mike 244 237 2079.3 415 698 11 173 668 769 .869 19 14
Ripken Jr., Cal 161 157 1385.7 231 466 14 109 444 510 .871 14 10
Counsell, Craig 166 137 1269.3 212 494 13 122 447 526 .850 11 7
Vizcaino, Jose 107 76 677.7 98 231 11 34 226 260 .869 8 7
McLemore, Mark 74 64 568.0 87 175 6 46 169 193 .876 7 5
Sanchez, Rey 102 89 799.7 146 254 7 61 242 280 .864 6 5
Gagne, Greg 143 138 1223.0 174 358 16 55 389 451 .863 6 4
Aurilia, Rich 12 11 94.0 14 35 2 6 33 37 .892 2 2
Benjamin, Mike 15 11 88.7 18 35 1 5 36 40 .900 2 2
Clayton, Royce 198 177 1563.0 244 519 26 84 503 603 .834 4 2
Hernandez, Jose 12 6 75.0 14 30 0 7 29 31 .935 4 2
Wilson, Jack 105 105 917.3 152 317 12 81 290 351 .826 4 2
Huson, Jeff 17 10 111.3 23 33 1 7 37 41 .902 2 1
McDonald, John 31 19 198.3 38 66 1 22 60 71 .845 2 1
Mordecai, Mike 18 11 116.0 19 34 1 11 29 34 .853 0 1
Alicea, Luis 1 0 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0
Ausmus, Brad 1 0 1.0 1 1 0 1 0 0 .000 0 0
Barnes, Skeeter 2 0 2.0 0 1 1 0 0 0 .000 0 0
Bell, Jay 14 7 60.0 12 23 1 6 18 20 .900 2 0
Blum, Geoff 1 0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0
Cabrera, Jolbert 9 7 60.3 7 14 0 5 14 16 .875 1 0
DeCinces, Doug 1 0 2.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0
Fletcher, Scott 3 0 6.0 0 1 0 0 2 2 1.000 0 0
Gaetti, Gary 1 0 2.0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0
Grebeck, Craig 31 17 167.7 26 51 0 8 53 61 .869 1 0
Grudzielanek, Mark 7 1 15.7 1 3 0 0 3 3 1.000 0 0
Magadan, Dave 3 0 4.0 0 2 0 1 1 1 1.000 0 0
McGwire, Mark 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0
Mora, Melvin 1 0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0
Morrison, Jim 1 0 4.0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1.000 0 0
Phillips, Tony 1 0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0
Royster, Jerry 2 0 4.0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1.000 0 0
Salazar, Luis 12 8 81.3 14 27 0 5 26 29 .897 1 0
Schmidt, Mike 3 0 4.7 0 2 0 0 1 1 1.000 0 0
Shumpert, Terry 4 2 17.3 2 7 0 0 7 8 .875 0 0
Sveum, Dale 4 1 13.0 1 5 0 1 4 4 1.000 0 0
Valentin, Jose 1 0 2.0 0 2 0 1 2 2 1.000 0 0
Young, Eric 8 2 26.0 2 4 1 1 4 5 .800 0 0
Cirillo, Jeff 3 2 19.0 4 3 0 2 2 4 .500 -1 -1
Concepcion, Dave 16 0 104.7 13 36 3 12 33 38 .868 -1 -1
Gallego, Mike 11 3 43.0 8 21 0 4 14 15 .933 0 -1
Garner, Phil 2 0 9.0 1 6 1 0 2 3 .667 -1 -1
Gonzales, Rene 10 4 47.0 12 21 1 5 14 17 .824 -1 -1
Sojo, Luis 5 4 40.0 7 10 0 2 11 14 .786 -1 -1
Almon, Bill 5 0 12.0 3 3 1 1 2 4 .500 -2 -2
Brookens, Tom 10 0 29.7 7 11 0 3 7 10 .700 -2 -2
Castro, Juan 85 67 578.7 93 179 6 28 166 205 .810 -1 -2
Dunston, Shawon 16 8 65.0 5 19 1 5 18 22 .818 -1 -2
Gomez, Chris 23 19 165.3 29 65 3 16 60 75 .800 -3 -2
Gonzalez, Alex 112 110 948.3 148 270 7 59 250 308 .812 -1 -2
Williams, Matt 2 2 14.0 3 5 0 1 3 5 .600 -2 -2
Belliard, Rafael 60 21 271.7 43 77 2 19 82 99 .828 -3 -3
Griffin, Alfredo 20 18 164.0 34 38 3 9 49 60 .817 -3 -3
Martinez, Ramon 10 9 81.3 12 26 4 6 23 33 .697 -4 -3
Guillen, Ozzie 42 17 181.0 26 65 5 12 52 66 .788 -4 -4
Loretta, Mark 77 62 522.7 83 175 8 32 161 201 .801 -6 -4
Speier, Chris 42 0 195.0 35 77 3 16 59 71 .831 -4 -4
Trillo, Manny 14 0 42.3 9 11 1 1 9 14 .643 -5 -5
Reboulet, Jeff 66 44 411.0 89 114 11 36 122 152 .803 -6 -6
Easley, Damion 65 51 464.3 73 149 6 24 149 188 .793 -8 -7
Elster, Kevin 55 52 456.0 60 133 11 25 133 168 .792 -8 -7
Trammell, Alan 166 152 1336.7 255 446 19 92 415 492 .843 -7 -7
Washington, Ron 54 0 431.3 82 142 16 25 128 159 .805 -9 -7
Reynolds, Craig 48 0 295.3 57 98 6 19 84 108 .778 -9 -8
Weiss, Walt 171 137 1220.0 192 402 27 79 365 450 .811 -13 -11
Larkin, Barry 426 412 3431.3 585 1102 45 224 1085 1310 .828 -17 -14


GP: Games played
GS: Games started
Innings: Defensive innings at position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double plays
PM: Plays made (fieldable chances converted into outs)
CH: Fieldable chances
ZR: Zone rating (PM divided by CH)
Diff: Difference between PM and PM made by an average defender
RS: Runs saved compared to average

One can only imagine how good Ozzie Smith was in his prime if he was 73 runs above average from ages 36-41. Zone rating covers Smith's career from age 33 on, and he put up a total of 134 runs saved compared to average in 10 seasons, although the final three were part-time. That's roughly equivalent to being 20 runs better than average over a full season on a rate basis, over a time frame that began 10 years removed from the typical middle infielder's defensive peak.

I'd expected to see more players with bigger negative numbers, but I guess this is indicative that teams are pretty smart about moving guys off shortstop when they can no longer hack it defensively. Or it could be that that none of these guys were good enough hitters past age 36 to justify playing below average defense. We're also dealing with a subset of all players since zone rating has only been around for 22 years, which constricts what we may be seeing.

I don't see the Captain matching the Wizard's defensive coda, although my hatred of Jeter may be coloring my expectations. I've got him projected around -4 for 2010, so if he were to play through 40 and follow a typical aging pattern he'd wind up in the -30 to -35 range in total over the next five seasons, bottoming out at around -8 to -10. The good news is CAIRO thinks that even at age 40, Jeter should still be 17 runs above a replacement level shortstop offensively, so he shouldn't be harming the Yankees chances to win on the field too badly, although his salary and the opportunity cost of it may impact how they can fill out the rest of the roster in a way that could.

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