Thursday, February 11, 2010

What Becomes Of 35 Year Old Shortstops?

With all the recent talk about Derek Jeter's future with the Yankees, I thought it might be interesting to look at the history of 35 year old shortstops in baseball. While every player is unique and it shouldn't be assumed that they will follow the same patterns as their predecessors, it may at least give us some idea of the different paths Jeter's future could follow.

So first, I ran a query for every player who played most of his innings at shortstop at age 35. I'm not excluding anyone, so even players with one PA will get included. First, I'll mention that there have been 50211 unique player seasons, excluding pitchers at all positions, including pinch-hitting, pinch-running and DHing. Of those 50211 seasons, 321 have been a player aged 35 or older who have played most of their innings at SS. Of those, 107 were for a player who was exactly 35 (using season minus birth year to calculate age).

While I don't think data from the late 1800s - early 1900s tells us anything useful in regards to modern day player aging, I kept those players in on the hope that I may stumble upon another Birdie Cree.

Here's the full list of those 107 players.

player year tm lg age pos pa avg/obp/slg wOBA wOBA+ BRAA
Honus Wagner 1909 PIT NL 35 SS 564 .339/.420/.489 .401 142 54
Joe Cronin 1941 BOS AL 35 SS 601 .311/.406/.508 .398 123 36
Derek Jeter 2009 NYA AL 35 SS 712 .334/.406/.465 .386 115 36
Eddie Joost 1951 PHA AL 35 SS 665 .289/.409/.461 .387 120 35
George Davis 1905 CHA AL 35 SS 614 .278/.353/.340 .318 116 27
Candy Nelson 1884 NY4 AA 35 SS 515 .255/.375/.310 .325 123 27
Dave Bancroft 1926 BSN NL 35 SS 519 .311/.399/.384 .358 112 23
Alan Trammell 1993 DET AL 35 SS 443 .329/.388/.496 .385 117 23
Bobby Wallace 1908 SLA AL 35 SS 541 .253/.327/.324 .298 111 14
Miguel Tejada 2009 HOU NL 35 SS 673 .313/.340/.455 .344 106 12
Barry Larkin 1999 CIN NL 35 SS 682 .293/.390/.420 .363 108 12
Pee Wee Reese 1953 BRO NL 35 SS 610 .271/.374/.420 .355 108 12
Bill Dahlen 1905 NY1 NL 35 SS 594 .242/.337/.337 .309 107 9
Tony Lazzeri 1938 CHN NL 35 SS 142 .267/.380/.433 .363 116 6
Walt Weiss 1998 ATL NL 35 SS 412 .280/.386/.343 .339 104 5
Omar Vizquel 2002 CLE AL 35 SS 656 .275/.341/.418 .333 101 5
Jack Glasscock 1892 SLN NL 35 SS 617 .267/.327/.348 .305 105 4
Luke Appling 1942 CHA AL 35 SS 609 .262/.342/.341 .312 101 4
Ozzie Smith 1989 SLN NL 35 SS 653 .273/.335/.361 .313 104 4
Luis Aparicio 1969 CHA AL 35 SS 671 .280/.352/.362 .323 105 4
Joe Tinker 1915 CHF FL 35 SS 80 .269/.388/.328 .336 114 4
Mike Bordick 2000 BAL/NYN AL 35 SS 640 .285/.341/.443 .341 99 3
Art Fletcher 1920 NY1/PHI NL 35 SS 575 .284/.315/.396 .312 104 3
Jimmy Johnston 1924 BRO NL 35 SS 343 .298/.356/.365 .326 101 3
Nomar Garciaparra 2008 LAN NL 35 SS 181 .264/.326/.466 .340 104 3
Phil Rizzuto 1951 NYA AL 35 SS 603 .274/.350/.346 .318 99 1
Greg Gagne 1996 LAN NL 35 SS 483 .255/.333/.364 .314 97 1
Ed Caskin 1886 NY1 NL 35 SS 4 .500/.500/.500 .450 157 1
John Morrill 1890 BSP PL 35 SS 9 .143/.333/.143 .260 80 -1
Lou Boudreau 1952 BOS AL 35 SS 2 .000/.000/.000 .000 0 -1
Fred Pfeffer 1895 LS3 NL 35 SS 50 .289/.360/.311 .313 93 -1
Chick Keating 1926 PHI NL 35 SS 2 .000/.000/.000 .000 0 -1
Ernie Johnson 1923 CHA/NYA AL 35 SS 96 .297/.333/.385 .319 97 -1
John Valentin 2002 NYN NL 35 SS 242 .240/.339/.356 .316 97 -1
Dave Altizer 1911 CIN NL 35 SS 85 .227/.318/.307 .289 93 -1
Lou Merloni 2006 CLE AL 35 SS 21 .211/.286/.263 .256 76 -2
Nolen Richardson 1938 CIN NL 35 SS 103 .290/.311/.330 .288 92 -2
Ivan DeJesus 1988 DET AL 35 SS 18 .176/.222/.176 .190 60 -2
Roger Peckinpaugh 1926 WS1 AL 35 SS 175 .238/.360/.299 .313 95 -2
Bill Almon 1987 PIT/NYN NL 35 SS 83 .230/.313/.284 .279 86 -3
Marty Marion 1952 SLA AL 35 SS 206 .247/.320/.339 .299 96 -3
Paul Popovich 1975 PIT NL 35 SS 44 .200/.273/.225 .238 76 -3
Tim Foli 1985 PIT NL 35 SS 41 .189/.268/.189 .224 73 -3
Billy Klaus 1963 PHI NL 35 SS 19 .056/.105/.056 .085 29 -4
Dickey Pearce 1871 NY2 NA 35 SS 167 .270/.287/.301 .265 87 -4
Hank Schreiber 1926 CHN NL 35 SS 18 .056/.056/.111 .069 21 -4
Frankie Crosetti 1945 NYA AL 35 SS 510 .238/.341/.293 .299 99 -4
Alvin Dark 1957 SLN NL 35 SS 620 .290/.326/.381 .313 98 -5
Dal Maxvill 1974 PIT/OAK NL 35 SS 84 .189/.286/.189 .236 77 -5
Eddie Bressoud 1967 SLN NL 35 SS 76 .134/.237/.224 .219 73 -5
Mick Kelleher 1982 DET/CAL AL 35 SS 56 .160/.250/.180 .212 66 -5
Alan Strange 1941 SLA AL 35 SS 127 .232/.323/.268 .280 86 -5
John McDonald 2009 TOR AL 35 SS 155 .258/.271/.384 .283 85 -6
Ed McKean 1899 SLN NL 35 SS 297 .260/.310/.339 .292 93 -7
Frank Shugart 1901 CHA AL 35 SS 445 .251/.301/.345 .288 93 -7
Ossie Bluege 1935 WS1 AL 35 SS 358 .263/.341/.325 .307 92 -7
Leo Durocher 1940 BRO NL 35 SS 172 .231/.285/.319 .271 87 -7
Rabbit Maranville 1926 BRO NL 35 SS 260 .235/.312/.312 .286 89 -7
Chris Speier 1985 CHN NL 35 SS 237 .243/.295/.349 .286 93 -7
Billy Rogell 1939 DET AL 35 SS 200 .230/.330/.333 .304 90 -7
Dickie Thon 1993 ML4 AL 35 SS 272 .269/.324/.331 .295 90 -8
Gil English 1944 BRO NL 35 SS 85 .152/.212/.228 .202 66 -8
Jose Valentin 2004 CHA AL 35 SS 498 .216/.287/.473 .322 95 -8
Jose Vizcaino 2003 HOU NL 35 SS 199 .249/.281/.365 .283 86 -9
Cal Ripken 1995 BAL AL 35 SS 612 .262/.324/.422 .324 96 -9
Wayne Tolleson 1990 NYA AL 35 SS 81 .149/.210/.189 .188 59 -9
Alvaro Espinoza 1997 SEA AL 35 SS 75 .181/.213/.194 .190 56 -9
Craig Reynolds 1987 HOU NL 35 SS 412 .254/.303/.348 .289 89 -10
Alfredo Griffin 1992 TOR AL 35 SS 161 .233/.273/.280 .251 79 -10
Roy Hughes 1946 PHI NL 35 SS 296 .236/.287/.283 .261 85 -11
Germany Smith 1898 SLN NL 35 SS 182 .159/.275/.204 .236 78 -11
Sparky Adams 1929 PIT NL 35 SS 212 .260/.316/.311 .287 83 -11
Alex Grammas 1961 SLN NL 35 SS 191 .212/.293/.282 .266 83 -11
Don Kessinger 1977 SLN/CHA NL 35 SS 282 .237/.309/.281 .273 85 -12
Billy Jurges 1943 NY1 NL 35 SS 538 .229/.310/.279 .276 91 -13
Fred Stanley 1982 OAK AL 35 SS 258 .193/.287/.250 .255 79 -13
Orlando Cabrera 2009 MIN/OAK AL 35 SS 702 .284/.316/.389 .309 92 -14
Ed Holly 1914 PTF FL 35 SS 367 .246/.281/.294 .260 85 -14
Rabbit Warstler 1938 BSN NL 35 SS 515 .231/.303/.270 .268 85 -14
Ozzie Guillen 1999 ATL NL 35 SS 250 .241/.284/.323 .271 80 -15
Royce Clayton 2005 ARI NL 35 SS 563 .270/.320/.351 .301 92 -15
Joe Boley 1931 PHA AL 35 SS 241 .228/.282/.295 .262 80 -15
Leo Cardenas 1973 CLE AL 35 SS 208 .215/.264/.236 .233 74 -16
Mark Christman 1948 WS1 AL 35 SS 435 .259/.303/.318 .281 86 -16
Dick Groat 1965 SLN NL 35 SS 651 .254/.316/.315 .288 95 -16
Freddie Patek 1979 KCA AL 35 SS 328 .252/.293/.317 .274 84 -16
Garry Templeton 1991 SDN/NYN NL 35 SS 289 .221/.246/.304 .242 79 -16
Bert Campaneris 1977 TEX AL 35 SS 608 .254/.314/.341 .295 91 -16
Bill Russell 1983 LAN NL 35 SS 490 .246/.302/.286 .271 87 -16
Wally Gerber 1926 SLA AL 35 SS 454 .270/.339/.290 .294 89 -17
Monte Cross 1904 PHA AL 35 SS 556 .189/.266/.256 .243 89 -18
Mark Belanger 1979 BAL AL 35 SS 231 .167/.273/.217 .237 72 -18
George Wright 1882 PRO NL 35 SS 189 .162/.180/.189 .167 61 -18
Davy Force 1884 BFN NL 35 SS 430 .206/.256/.253 .234 84 -18
Larry Bowa 1980 PHI NL 35 SS 570 .267/.300/.322 .279 90 -18
Rafael Belliard 1996 ATL NL 35 SS 145 .169/.179/.218 .175 54 -19
Bob Lillis 1965 HOU NL 35 SS 435 .221/.267/.255 .241 80 -20
Tommy Corcoran 1904 CIN NL 35 SS 599 .230/.257/.301 .248 88 -23
Dave Concepcion 1983 CIN NL 35 SS 591 .233/.303/.280 .270 87 -23
Gene Michael 1973 NYA AL 35 SS 445 .225/.270/.278 .249 79 -24
Ivy Olson 1920 BRO NL 35 SS 658 .254/.278/.314 .264 87 -25
Roy McMillan 1964 ML1/NYN NL 35 SS 412 .214/.248/.253 .228 76 -26
Mickey Doolan 1915 BLF/CHF FL 35 SS 521 .200/.248/.273 .236 79 -28
George McBride 1915 WS1 AL 35 SS 506 .204/.251/.252 .231 78 -29
Herman Long 1901 BSN NL 35 SS 544 .216/.254/.284 .241 81 -31
Bones Ely 1898 PIT NL 35 SS 543 .212/.247/.270 .233 77 -32
Skeeter Webb 1944 CHA AL 35 SS 534 .211/.242/.271 .230 76 -34


Since cross-era comparison is difficult, I chose to compare players to their league averages without position-adjusting. Variations in position-adjustments and replacement level in different seasons aren't consistent, but performance relative to league average is a slightly more consistent basis for comparison, even though the pool of available talent hasn't been the same throughout the years.

wOBA is the player's weighted on-base average with a park-adjustment. wOBA+ is simply player wOBA divided by the league wOBA times 100 for the season in question. So a wOBA+ of 100 is average, a wOBA+ greater than 100 is better than average. This is similar to OPS+, but I think it's better since it doesn't weigh OBP and SLG equally. BRAA are batting runs above average (not position-adjusted), calculated as (player wOBA minus league wOBA, divided by 1.15 times plate appearances). Because we don't have accurate CS numbers for the early period of baseball, this does not include SB.

What Derek Jeter did in 2009 was pretty impressive. If we add in SB he picks up another five runs and moves ahead of Joe Cronin in value. What's interesting to me is how few 35 year old shortstops were able to even be league average. Amongst guys who got at least 500 PAs, there are only 20 who were able to hit that mark. Keep in mind that this table is comparing shortstops to league average at all positions. Shortstops have typically been seven or eight runs below average offensively over a full season, and if we want to put this in terms of replacement level you can add another 20 or so runs over a full season. Unfortunately in Jeter's case, I'd project him to give away the positional adjustment defensively over the next few years if he follows the typical aging pattern.

Looking back is nice, but the real purpose for this post is to look at what has happened to shortstops as they go past age 35.

player year tm lg age pos pa avg/obp/slg wOBA wOBA+ BRAA
Luke Appling 1943 CHA AL 36 SS 676 .328/.419/.407 .376 126 45
Honus Wagner 1910 PIT NL 36 SS 620 .320/.390/.432 .367 122 30
Candy Nelson 1885 NY4 AA 36 SS 484 .255/.353/.310 .310 114 27
Pee Wee Reese 1954 BRO NL 36 SS 653 .309/.404/.455 .380 116 26
Eddie Joost 1952 PHA AL 36 SS 667 .244/.388/.415 .363 117 24
George Davis 1906 CHA AL 36 SS 529 .277/.338/.355 .314 113 18
Luis Aparicio 1970 CHA AL 36 SS 611 .313/.372/.404 .346 111 18
Barry Larkin 2000 CIN NL 36 SS 445 .313/.389/.487 .383 113 16
Jack Glasscock 1893 SLN/PIT NL 36 SS 539 .320/.384/.412 .357 109 15
Bill Dahlen 1906 NY1 NL 36 SS 557 .240/.357/.297 .311 111 14
Ernie Johnson 1924 NYA AL 36 2B 131 .353/.412/.597 .429 128 11
Monte Cross 1905 PHA AL 36 SS 277 .266/.332/.349 .309 113 8
Joe Cronin 1942 BOS AL 36 3B 94 .304/.415/.494 .399 130 7
Tony Lazzeri 1939 BRO/NY1 NL 36 3B 102 .289/.422/.458 .394 123 6
Phil Rizzuto 1952 NYA AL 36 SS 650 .254/.337/.341 .309 100 5
Bobby Wallace 1909 SLA AL 36 SS 445 .238/.310/.278 .275 100 4
Chris Speier 1986 CHN NL 36 3B 172 .284/.349/.452 .349 112 4
Frankie Crosetti 1946 NYA AL 36 SS 68 .288/.382/.339 .336 108 1
Cal Ripken 1996 BAL AL 36 SS 707 .278/.341/.466 .349 100 1
Ed Holly 1915 PTF FL 36 SS 48 .262/.354/.310 .311 105 1
Jimmy Johnston 1925 BRO NL 36 3B 480 .297/.369/.355 .331 99 1
Alan Strange 1942 SLA AL 36 3B 40 .270/.325/.324 .296 96 -1
Nolen Richardson 1939 CIN NL 36 SS 3 .000/.000/.000 .000 0 -1
Roger Peckinpaugh 1927 CHA AL 36 SS 239 .295/.360/.350 .324 98 -1
Dal Maxvill 1975 OAK AL 36 SS 10 .200/.200/.200 .180 57 -1
Leo Durocher 1941 BRO NL 36 SS 43 .286/.302/.310 .276 90 -1
Joe Tinker 1916 CHN NL 36 SS 11 .100/.182/.100 .147 52 -1
Mickey Doolan 1916 CHN/NY1 NL 36 SS 131 .223/.282/.322 .271 96 -2
Rabbit Maranville 1927 SLN NL 36 SS 31 .241/.290/.276 .261 81 -2
Marty Marion 1953 SLA AL 36 3B 7 .000/.000/.000 .000 0 -2
Bill Russell 1984 LAN NL 36 SS 289 .267/.329/.321 .297 97 -2
Ossie Bluege 1936 WS1 AL 36 2B 363 .288/.375/.342 .332 96 -2
Bill Almon 1988 PHI NL 36 3B 29 .115/.207/.192 .191 64 -3
Mike Bordick 2001 BAL AL 36 SS 255 .249/.314/.397 .312 94 -3
Larry Bowa 1981 PHI NL 36 SS 387 .283/.331/.339 .303 99 -3
Craig Reynolds 1988 HOU NL 36 SS 169 .255/.290/.317 .273 91 -3
Leo Cardenas 1974 TEX AL 36 3B 94 .272/.287/.304 .266 86 -3
Nomar Garciaparra 2009 OAK AL 36 DH 169 .281/.314/.388 .308 92 -3
Alvin Dark 1958 SLN/CHN NL 36 3B 570 .295/.337/.364 .314 97 -4
Joe Boley 1932 PHA/CLE AL 36 SS 39 .211/.231/.263 .221 66 -4
Freddie Patek 1980 CAL AL 36 SS 291 .264/.302/.392 .303 94 -4
Gene Michael 1974 NYA AL 36 2B 192 .260/.313/.311 .284 92 -4
Jose Valentin 2005 LAN NL 36 3B 184 .170/.326/.265 .286 87 -6
Mark Christman 1949 WS1 AL 36 3B 121 .214/.273/.313 .263 80 -7
Rafael Belliard 1997 ATL NL 36 SS 73 .211/.219/.296 .223 68 -7
Dave Bancroft 1927 BSN NL 36 SS 419 .243/.322/.307 .290 90 -7
Ozzie Guillen 2000 TBA AL 36 SS 113 .243/.283/.336 .276 80 -7
Omar Vizquel 2003 CLE AL 36 SS 280 .244/.321/.336 .299 90 -7
Alex Grammas 1962 SLN/CHN NL 36 SS 82 .205/.244/.244 .224 70 -7
Sparky Adams 1930 SLN NL 36 3B 616 .314/.365/.409 .345 98 -7
Alan Trammell 1994 DET AL 36 SS 309 .267/.307/.414 .314 92 -8
Billy Rogell 1940 CHN NL 36 SS 61 .136/.164/.186 .159 51 -8
Bones Ely 1899 PIT NL 36 SS 549 .278/.313/.352 .297 95 -8
Davy Force 1885 BFN NL 36 2B 266 .225/.263/.257 .238 88 -8
Bob Lillis 1966 HOU NL 36 2B 173 .232/.260/.268 .239 78 -9
Alfredo Griffin 1993 TOR AL 36 SS 98 .211/.235/.242 .216 66 -10
Ozzie Smith 1990 SLN NL 36 SS 585 .254/.330/.305 .293 94 -10
Jose Vizcaino 2004 HOU NL 36 SS 380 .274/.311/.374 .302 91 -11
Dick Groat 1966 PHI NL 36 SS 633 .260/.311/.320 .286 93 -11
Greg Gagne 1997 LAN NL 36 SS 550 .251/.298/.354 .290 89 -12
Herman Long 1902 BSN NL 36 SS 471 .230/.282/.269 .254 90 -12
Walt Weiss 1999 ATL NL 36 SS 321 .226/.315/.323 .291 86 -13
Don Kessinger 1978 CHA AL 36 SS 468 .255/.312/.309 .284 90 -14
Rabbit Warstler 1939 BSN NL 36 SS 366 .243/.292/.292 .267 83 -14
Billy Jurges 1944 NY1 NL 36 3B 269 .211/.279/.240 .244 79 -15
Dave Concepcion 1984 CIN NL 36 SS 592 .245/.307/.320 .284 92 -15
Dickey Pearce 1872 NY2 NA 36 SS 210 .194/.210/.223 .195 68 -15
George McBride 1916 WS1 AL 36 SS 494 .227/.271/.283 .252 86 -17
Royce Clayton 2006 WAS/CIN NL 36 SS 495 .258/.307/.341 .290 87 -17
Fred Pfeffer 1896 NY1/CHN NL 36 2B 401 .241/.292/.337 .281 86 -18
Roy McMillan 1965 NYN NL 36 SS 558 .242/.280/.292 .259 86 -19
Tommy Corcoran 1905 CIN NL 36 SS 629 .248/.277/.329 .268 93 -19
Mark Belanger 1980 BAL AL 36 SS 280 .228/.261/.276 .243 75 -19
Bert Campaneris 1978 TEX AL 36 SS 294 .186/.245/.238 .223 71 -24
Ivy Olson 1921 BRO NL 36 SS 684 .267/.301/.345 .288 89 -25
Wally Gerber 1927 SLA AL 36 SS 475 .224/.284/.295 .264 79 -30
Skeeter Webb 1945 DET AL 36 SS 437 .199/.254/.238 .229 76 -31


Looking at the same set of players and what they did the following season, we get a list of 77 players. Four players drop from the list because their age 35 season was 2009 (Jeter, Miguel Tejada, John McDonald and Orlando Cabrera), but that's still a pretty big chunk of players who dropped out of the league. On this list, only ten players who got 500 PAs were able to hit at a league average level. Twenty of these players played more games at a position other than shortstop as well, which likely indicates a defensive decline.

player year tm lg age pos pa avg/obp/slg wOBA wOBA+ BRAA
Honus Wagner 1911 PIT NL 37 SS 546 .334/.423/.507 .408 132 43
Ozzie Smith 1991 SLN NL 37 SS 635 .285/.380/.367 .342 112 20
Bobby Wallace 1910 SLA AL 37 SS 558 .258/.324/.323 .296 106 13
Phil Rizzuto 1953 NYA AL 37 SS 488 .271/.383/.351 .340 107 11
Billy Jurges 1945 NY1 NL 37 3B 200 .324/.405/.403 .367 118 9
Pee Wee Reese 1955 BRO NL 37 SS 639 .282/.371/.403 .347 107 9
Joe Cronin 1943 BOS AL 37 3B 88 .312/.398/.558 .409 137 8
Willie Keeler 1909 NYA AL 37 OF 394 .264/.327/.319 .297 108 7
Jose Valentin 2006 NYN NL 37 2B 427 .271/.330/.490 .349 105 7
Eddie Joost 1953 PHA AL 37 SS 222 .249/.401/.384 .361 113 7
George Davis 1907 CHA AL 37 SS 517 .238/.313/.288 .280 102 4
Chris Speier 1987 SFN NL 37 2B 363 .249/.342/.394 .329 102 4
Alvin Dark 1959 CHN NL 37 3B 538 .264/.342/.386 .325 102 3
Candy Nelson 1886 NY4 AA 37 SS 479 .225/.332/.252 .282 100 3
Omar Vizquel 2004 CLE AL 37 SS 631 .291/.353/.388 .331 100 2
Barry Larkin 2001 CIN NL 37 SS 185 .256/.373/.372 .341 103 0
Sparky Adams 1931 SLN NL 37 3B 652 .293/.340/.390 .325 100 0
Frankie Crosetti 1947 NYA AL 37 SS 1 .000/.000/.000 .000 0 0
Ossie Bluege 1937 WS1 AL 37 SS 141 .283/.355/.370 .328 96 -1
Bill Russell 1985 LAN NL 37 SS 189 .260/.333/.308 .296 96 -1
Rafael Belliard 1998 ATL NL 37 SS 20 .250/.250/.250 .225 69 -2
Dickey Pearce 1873 BR2 NA 37 SS 270 .275/.296/.305 .271 93 -2
Paul Richards 1945 DET AL 37 C 254 .256/.315/.355 .300 99 -2
Leo Cardenas 1975 TEX AL 37 3B 116 .235/.328/.284 .288 91 -3
Freddie Patek 1981 CAL AL 37 2B 48 .234/.250/.298 .242 78 -3
Ernie Johnson 1925 NYA AL 37 2B 178 .282/.315/.412 .317 93 -3
Alex Grammas 1963 CHN NL 37 SS 27 .185/.185/.185 .167 56 -3
Jimmy Johnston 1926 BSN/NY1 NL 37 OF 142 .238/.324/.270 .281 88 -4
Bob Lillis 1967 HOU NL 37 SS 83 .244/.253/.256 .230 77 -5
Alan Trammell 1995 DET AL 37 SS 252 .269/.345/.350 .316 93 -5
Cal Ripken 1997 BAL AL 37 3B 686 .270/.331/.402 .322 96 -5
Walt Weiss 2000 ATL NL 37 SS 224 .260/.353/.313 .310 91 -6
Fred Pfeffer 1897 CHN NL 37 2B 129 .228/.318/.246 .271 83 -7
George McBride 1917 WS1 AL 37 SS 155 .191/.265/.213 .229 79 -8
Jose Vizcaino 2005 HOU NL 37 2B 204 .246/.299/.337 .284 87 -8
Monte Cross 1906 PHA AL 37 SS 502 .200/.291/.272 .263 95 -8
Art Fletcher 1922 PHI NL 37 SS 422 .280/.325/.409 .322 97 -8
Don Kessinger 1979 CHA AL 37 SS 121 .200/.264/.282 .249 76 -8
Dick Groat 1967 PHI/SFN NL 37 SS 106 .156/.236/.188 .205 68 -9
Mike Bordick 2002 BAL AL 37 SS 407 .232/.302/.365 .296 90 -9
Roy McMillan 1966 NYN NL 37 SS 243 .214/.284/.277 .259 84 -9
Craig Reynolds 1989 HOU NL 37 2B 208 .201/.274/.254 .247 82 -9
Royce Clayton 2007 TOR/BOS AL 37 SS 213 .246/.296/.333 .281 85 -10
Gene Michael 1975 DET AL 37 SS 154 .214/.253/.290 .243 77 -10
Bill Dahlen 1907 NY1 NL 37 SS 519 .207/.291/.254 .257 93 -11
Jack Glasscock 1894 PIT NL 37 SS 367 .280/.349/.361 .322 90 -11
Rabbit Warstler 1940 BSN/CHN NL 37 2B 234 .222/.282/.264 .253 81 -11
Mark Belanger 1981 BAL AL 37 SS 153 .165/.242/.237 .224 72 -11
Dave Concepcion 1985 CIN NL 37 SS 617 .252/.314/.330 .292 95 -12
Rabbit Maranville 1928 SLN NL 37 SS 403 .240/.310/.342 .293 90 -13
Skeeter Webb 1946 DET AL 37 2B 178 .219/.258/.237 .229 74 -14
Bert Campaneris 1979 TEX/CAL AL 37 SS 272 .230/.290/.278 .262 80 -14
Davy Force 1886 WS8 NL 37 SS 259 .182/.236/.211 .209 73 -16
Herman Long 1903 NYA/DET AL 37 SS 332 .213/.244/.260 .228 80 -16
Larry Bowa 1982 CHN NL 37 SS 540 .246/.302/.305 .276 90 -16
Dave Bancroft 1928 BRO NL 37 SS 576 .247/.326/.303 .292 89 -17
Ivy Olson 1922 BRO NL 37 2B 578 .272/.306/.347 .291 88 -21
Wally Gerber 1928 SLA/BOS AL 37 SS 351 .217/.291/.245 .253 78 -21
Luis Aparicio 1971 BOS AL 37 SS 532 .232/.284/.303 .265 87 -23
Tommy Corcoran 1906 CIN NL 37 SS 450 .207/.242/.249 .224 80 -24
Bones Ely 1900 PIT NL 37 SS 493 .244/.272/.282 .250 80 -27


Of those 36 year olds, 61 were still in the league in their age 37 season (Nomar Garciaparra drops as his age 36 season was 2009). Eight were able to hit at league average level with 500 or more PAs.

player year tm lg age pos pa avg/obp/slg wOBA wOBA+ BRAA
Honus Wagner 1912 PIT NL 38 SS 623 .324/.395/.496 .389 123 40
Ozzie Smith 1992 SLN NL 38 SS 578 .295/.367/.342 .326 107 14
Luke Appling 1945 CHA AL 38 SS 69 .368/.478/.526 .443 147 9
Eddie Joost 1954 PHA AL 38 SS 57 .362/.474/.489 .431 137 6
Joe Cronin 1944 BOS AL 38 1B 226 .241/.358/.356 .328 108 5
Dickey Pearce 1874 BR2 NA 38 SS 261 .294/.310/.298 .276 101 4
Candy Nelson 1887 NY4/NY1 AA 38 OF 315 .243/.378/.270 .316 101 3
Bill Dahlen 1908 BSN NL 38 SS 567 .239/.296/.307 .275 101 3
Monte Cross 1907 PHA AL 38 SS 288 .206/.316/.282 .282 103 1
Willie Keeler 1910 NY1 NL 38 OF 13 .300/.462/.300 .374 125 1
Frankie Crosetti 1948 NYA AL 38 2B 16 .286/.375/.429 .356 109 0
Chris Speier 1988 SFN NL 38 2B 196 .216/.311/.333 .293 98 0
Herman Long 1904 PHI NL 38 2B 4 .250/.250/.250 .225 80 0
Billy Jurges 1946 CHN NL 38 SS 265 .222/.351/.281 .303 99 0
Leo Durocher 1943 BRO NL 38 SS 19 .222/.263/.222 .227 75 -1
Sparky Adams 1932 SLN NL 38 3B 142 .276/.352/.315 .310 97 -2
George Davis 1908 CHA AL 38 2B 467 .217/.298/.255 .261 98 -2
Mark Belanger 1982 LAN NL 38 SS 55 .240/.309/.260 .268 87 -2
Tommy Corcoran 1907 NY1 NL 38 2B 233 .265/.288/.323 .272 98 -2
Alvin Dark 1960 PHI/ML1 NL 38 3B 371 .265/.321/.351 .301 96 -2
Ossie Bluege 1938 WS1 AL 38 2B 206 .261/.340/.337 .310 91 -4
Jack Glasscock 1895 LS3/WSN NL 38 SS 190 .276/.337/.333 .307 91 -4
Luis Aparicio 1972 BOS AL 38 SS 469 .257/.299/.351 .288 99 -5
Jose Valentin 2007 NYN NL 38 2B 182 .241/.302/.373 .298 90 -5
Mike Bordick 2003 TOR AL 38 SS 379 .274/.340/.382 .323 97 -5
Bill Russell 1986 LAN NL 38 OF 235 .250/.302/.301 .275 88 -6
Paul Richards 1946 DET AL 38 C 162 .201/.315/.266 .276 89 -6
Skeeter Webb 1947 DET AL 38 2B 86 .203/.267/.241 .238 76 -6
Jose Vizcaino 2006 SFN/SLN NL 38 SS 159 .232/.314/.317 .289 87 -6
Dave Concepcion 1986 CIN NL 38 SS 341 .260/.314/.344 .295 94 -7
Bert Campaneris 1980 CAL AL 38 SS 227 .252/.300/.329 .282 87 -7
Cal Ripken 1998 BAL AL 38 3B 658 .271/.331/.389 .320 95 -8
George McBride 1918 WS1 AL 38 SS 53 .132/.132/.132 .119 41 -8
Omar Vizquel 2005 SFN NL 38 SS 631 .271/.341/.350 .314 96 -8
Rabbit Maranville 1929 BSN NL 38 SS 611 .284/.344/.366 .320 93 -10
Larry Bowa 1983 CHN NL 38 SS 538 .267/.312/.339 .292 94 -12
Bobby Wallace 1911 SLA AL 38 SS 458 .232/.312/.271 .274 88 -12
Ivy Olson 1923 BRO NL 38 2B 307 .260/.296/.315 .276 85 -13
Dave Bancroft 1929 BRO NL 38 SS 387 .277/.331/.332 .302 88 -13
Pee Wee Reese 1956 BRO NL 38 SS 633 .257/.322/.344 .301 95 -17
Phil Rizzuto 1954 NYA AL 38 SS 351 .195/.291/.251 .257 81 -17
Barry Larkin 2002 CIN NL 38 SS 561 .245/.305/.367 .297 91 -17
Alan Trammell 1996 DET AL 38 SS 206 .233/.267/.259 .240 69 -19
Mickey Doolan 1918 BRO NL 38 2B 330 .179/.233/.218 .210 73 -22
Bones Ely 1901 PIT/PHA NL 38 SS 422 .212/.232/.265 .222 73 -31


Moving onto age 38, we're down to 45 players. Honus Wagner really was a player, huh? Still putting up forty runs above average at age 38. We're down to three full-time players who were able to hit at league average.

player year tm lg age pos pa avg/obp/slg wOBA wOBA+ BRAA
Luke Appling 1946 CHA AL 39 SS 653 .309/.384/.378 .347 112 25
Cal Ripken 1999 BAL AL 39 3B 351 .340/.368/.584 .402 117 20
Honus Wagner 1913 PIT NL 39 SS 444 .300/.349/.385 .329 109 13
Dave Concepcion 1987 CIN NL 39 2B 310 .319/.377/.384 .343 106 4
Dickey Pearce 1875 SL2 NA 39 SS 318 .248/.264/.286 .246 98 2
Bill Dahlen 1909 BSN NL 39 SS 226 .234/.332/.305 .297 105 2
Omar Vizquel 2006 SFN NL 39 SS 646 .295/.361/.389 .336 101 1
Joe Cronin 1945 BOS AL 39 3B 11 .375/.545/.375 .442 146 1
Barry Larkin 2003 CIN NL 39 SS 264 .282/.345/.382 .326 99 1
Phil Rizzuto 1955 NYA AL 39 SS 168 .259/.369/.322 .324 101 1
Chris Speier 1989 SFN NL 39 SS 42 .243/.333/.351 .311 103 1
Bobby Wallace 1912 SLA AL 39 SS 367 .241/.332/.316 .300 98 0
Billy Jurges 1947 CHN NL 39 SS 49 .200/.347/.325 .314 97 0
Ivy Olson 1924 BRO NL 39 SS 30 .222/.300/.259 .263 82 -1
Bert Campaneris 1981 CAL AL 39 3B 88 .256/.295/.341 .283 92 -2
George McBride 1919 WS1 AL 39 SS 43 .200/.256/.275 .241 78 -3
Ozzie Smith 1993 SLN NL 39 SS 596 .288/.337/.356 .311 97 -3
Dave Bancroft 1930 NY1 NL 39 SS 19 .059/.158/.118 .141 40 -4
George Davis 1909 CHA AL 39 1B 79 .132/.253/.147 .207 76 -4
Eddie Joost 1955 BOS AL 39 SS 137 .193/.299/.336 .288 90 -5
Ossie Bluege 1939 WS1 AL 39 1B 66 .153/.242/.153 .199 59 -8
Sparky Adams 1933 SLN/CIN NL 39 3B 616 .257/.315/.305 .284 94 -8
Skeeter Webb 1948 PHA AL 39 2B 54 .148/.148/.185 .146 45 -9
Bones Ely 1902 WS1 AL 39 SS 402 .262/.301/.310 .277 89 -12
Rabbit Maranville 1930 BSN NL 39 SS 611 .281/.344/.367 .320 91 -15
Luis Aparicio 1973 BOS AL 39 SS 549 .271/.324/.309 .289 92 -17
Pee Wee Reese 1957 BRO NL 39 3B 372 .224/.306/.248 .264 83 -21
Larry Bowa 1984 CHN NL 39 SS 420 .223/.274/.269 .249 81 -25


Age 39 cuts us down to 28 players and two full-time league average performers.

player year tm lg age pos pa avg/obp/slg wOBA wOBA+ BRAA
Luke Appling 1947 CHA AL 40 SS 568 .306/.386/.412 .358 114 26
Barry Larkin 2004 CIN NL 40 SS 384 .289/.352/.419 .340 103 4
Honus Wagner 1914 PIT NL 40 SS 605 .252/.317/.317 .290 99 2
Bill Dahlen 1910 BRO NL 40 #N/A 2 .000/.000/.000 .000 0 -1
Leo Durocher 1945 BRO NL 40 2B 5 .200/.200/.200 .180 58 -1
Pee Wee Reese 1958 LAN NL 40 SS 175 .224/.337/.381 .321 100 -1
Phil Rizzuto 1956 NYA AL 40 SS 58 .231/.310/.231 .261 80 -3
Cal Ripken 2000 BAL AL 40 3B 339 .256/.310/.453 .327 94 -3
George McBride 1920 WS1 AL 40 SS 43 .220/.256/.244 .230 70 -4
Dickey Pearce 1876 SL3 NL 40 SS 105 .206/.229/.216 .204 77 -5
Bobby Wallace 1913 SLA AL 40 SS 164 .211/.293/.245 .256 86 -5
Ozzie Smith 1994 SLN NL 40 SS 423 .262/.326/.349 .304 93 -8
Sparky Adams 1934 CIN NL 40 3B 300 .252/.307/.317 .283 88 -9
Rabbit Maranville 1931 BSN NL 40 SS 620 .260/.329/.317 .297 93 -10
Larry Bowa 1985 CHN/NYN NL 40 SS 228 .234/.276/.304 .261 84 -12
Dave Concepcion 1988 CIN NL 40 2B 215 .198/.265/.244 .238 79 -12
Omar Vizquel 2007 SFN NL 40 SS 561 .246/.305/.316 .282 85 -25


Age 40 sees us down to 17 players, and only two above average performers. Even the great Wagner finally started showing the effects of age at this point, although he rebounded to put up 23 BRAA in his age 41 season and 17 BRAA in his age 42 season before his final season at age 43 where he put up 2 BRAA.

Here are the totals for everyone in this list from age 35 on.

Player PA wOBA+ BRAA
Honus Wagner 4740 119 224
Luke Appling 3919 113 157
Eddie Joost 1748 116 66
Candy Nelson 2056 110 64
Joe Cronin 1020 122 58
George Davis 2206 107 43
Derek Jeter 712 115 36
Barry Larkin 2521 103 16
Bill Dahlen 2468 103 15
Miguel Tejada 673 106 12
Tony Lazzeri 244 119 12
Willie Keeler 407 109 8
Pee Wee Reese 3082 103 7
Ernie Johnson 405 105 7
Ozzie Smith 3901 101 6
Jack Glasscock 1713 101 4
Joe Tinker 91 107 2
Bobby Wallace 2763 98 1
Chris Speier 1010 101 1
Ed Caskin 4 157 1
Lou Boudreau 2 0 -1
John Morrill 9 80 -1
Jimmy Johnston 965 98 -1
Chick Keating 2 0 -1
Nomar Garciaparra 350 98 -1
John Valentin 242 97 -1
Dave Altizer 85 93 -1
Lou Merloni 21 76 -2
Ivan DeJesus 18 60 -2
Phil Rizzuto 2318 98 -2
Nolen Richardson 106 89 -3
Paul Popovich 44 76 -3
Frankie Crosetti 595 100 -3
Tim Foli 41 73 -3
Roger Peckinpaugh 414 97 -3
Billy Klaus 19 29 -4
Hank Schreiber 18 21 -4
Marty Marion 213 93 -5
Art Fletcher 997 101 -5
Eddie Bressoud 76 73 -5
Mick Kelleher 56 66 -5
Bill Almon 112 80 -6
Alan Strange 167 88 -6
Dal Maxvill 94 75 -6
John McDonald 155 85 -6
Ed McKean 297 93 -7
Alvin Dark 2099 98 -7
Frank Shugart 445 93 -7
Dickie Thon 272 90 -8
Gil English 85 66 -8
Paul Richards 416 95 -8
Wayne Tolleson 81 59 -9
Alan Trammell 1210 97 -9
Alvaro Espinoza 75 56 -9
Leo Durocher 239 86 -10
Roy Hughes 296 85 -11
Germany Smith 182 78 -11
Greg Gagne 1033 93 -12
Jose Valentin 1291 96 -12
Ed Holly 415 87 -13
Fred Stanley 258 79 -13
Orlando Cabrera 702 92 -14
Mike Bordick 1681 96 -14
Walt Weiss 957 95 -14
Billy Rogell 261 81 -15
Garry Templeton 289 79 -16
Monte Cross 1623 97 -17
Dave Bancroft 1920 95 -18
George Wright 189 61 -18
Billy Jurges 1321 94 -19
Joe Boley 280 78 -19
Alfredo Griffin 259 74 -20
Ossie Bluege 1134 92 -21
Leo Cardenas 418 81 -21
Ozzie Guillen 363 80 -21
Alex Grammas 300 77 -22
Dickey Pearce 1361 89 -22
Luis Aparicio 2832 99 -22
Craig Reynolds 789 88 -22
Mark Christman 556 85 -23
Freddie Patek 667 88 -23
Bill Russell 1203 91 -25
Cal Ripken 3867 97 -25
Fred Pfeffer 580 86 -26
Rafael Belliard 238 60 -28
Jose Vizcaino 942 88 -33
Bob Lillis 691 79 -33
Don Kessinger 871 86 -34
Dick Groat 1390 92 -36
Sparky Adams 2538 96 -37
Gene Michael 791 82 -39
Rabbit Warstler 1115 84 -39
Royce Clayton 1271 89 -42
Davy Force 955 82 -42
Mark Belanger 719 74 -50
Mickey Doolan 982 79 -51
Roy McMillan 1213 82 -54
Omar Vizquel 3888 94 -58
Herman Long 1351 84 -60
Bert Campaneris 1641 86 -63
Dave Concepcion 2666 92 -65
Tommy Corcoran 1911 89 -67
George McBride 1294 79 -67
Wally Gerber 1280 82 -68
Ivy Olson 2257 88 -84
Larry Bowa 2683 90 -86
Skeeter Webb 1289 74 -92
Rabbit Maranville 3741 88 -109
Bones Ely 2409 83 -110


One last list. Here are the totals from age 36 on.

Player PA wOBA+ BRAA
Honus Wagner 4176 116 170
Luke Appling 3310 115 153
Candy Nelson 1541 105 37
Eddie Joost 1083 114 31
Joe Cronin 419 120 22
George Davis 1592 103 16
Chris Speier 773 103 8
Willie Keeler 407 109 8
Ernie Johnson 309 108 8
Tony Lazzeri 102 123 6
Bill Dahlen 1874 102 6
Barry Larkin 1839 101 4
Ozzie Smith 3248 100 2
Frankie Crosetti 85 107 2
Monte Cross 1067 102 1
Ed Holly 48 105 1
Jack Glasscock 1096 100 0
Alan Strange 40 96 -1
Roger Peckinpaugh 239 98 -1
Dal Maxvill 10 57 -1
Joe Tinker 11 52 -1
Alvin Dark 1479 99 -2
Bill Almon 29 64 -3
Leo Durocher 67 83 -3
Phil Rizzuto 1715 98 -3
Nomar Garciaparra 169 92 -3
Jimmy Johnston 622 96 -4
Joe Boley 39 66 -4
Jose Valentin 793 97 -4
Pee Wee Reese 2472 102 -4
Leo Cardenas 210 89 -6
Billy Jurges 783 97 -6
Mark Christman 121 80 -7
Freddie Patek 339 92 -7
Ozzie Guillen 113 80 -7
Billy Rogell 61 51 -8
Art Fletcher 422 97 -8
Paul Richards 416 95 -8
Rafael Belliard 93 68 -8
Bill Russell 713 94 -9
Alfredo Griffin 98 66 -10
Alex Grammas 109 67 -10
Greg Gagne 550 89 -12
Craig Reynolds 377 86 -12
Bobby Wallace 2222 95 -13
Bob Lillis 256 78 -14
Ossie Bluege 776 92 -14
Gene Michael 346 85 -14
Cal Ripken 3255 97 -16
Mike Bordick 1041 94 -17
Dickey Pearce 1194 90 -18
Walt Weiss 545 88 -19
Dick Groat 739 89 -20
Don Kessinger 589 87 -22
Mickey Doolan 461 80 -23
Davy Force 525 81 -24
Jose Vizcaino 743 89 -25
Rabbit Warstler 600 82 -25
Fred Pfeffer 530 85 -25
Sparky Adams 2326 97 -26
Luis Aparicio 2161 98 -26
Royce Clayton 708 86 -27
Roy McMillan 801 85 -28
Herman Long 807 86 -29
Alan Trammell 767 86 -32
Mark Belanger 488 75 -33
George McBride 788 80 -38
Dave Bancroft 1401 88 -41
Dave Concepcion 2075 94 -42
Tommy Corcoran 1312 89 -44
Bert Campaneris 1033 83 -46
Wally Gerber 826 79 -51
Skeeter Webb 755 73 -58
Ivy Olson 1599 88 -59
Omar Vizquel 3232 93 -63
Larry Bowa 2113 90 -67
Bones Ely 1866 85 -78
Rabbit Maranville 3481 88 -101


Bones Ely must have had a hell of a glove. Great name too.

I'll reiterate again, these are not position-adjusted, or compared to replacement level. Over a full season, a shortstop who hit at a league average level would be worth somewhere around 25-30 runs above a replacement level shortstop.

Still, overall this isn't very encouraging in regards to the prospects of Jeter's remaining career, and I haven't really delved into the expected defensive decline of a player in their mid-30s. However, Jeter's already demonstrated the ability to defy expectations, so maybe he can continue to do so. I'll get into Jeter's specific CAIRO career forecast when I start up the season preview pieces.

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