How Well Would an MLB All Star Team Project Over a Full Season?

A few posts back, fgasparini wondered what a team that would project to win 162 games would like. While it's not exactly what he asked for, I thought I could look at how a team comprised of the best players in baseball heading into 2010 would project. So using CAIRO projections for offense and defense, here are the players I have projected as the best at each position for 2010.

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	RS
Joe Mauer	26	MIN	AL	C	.325	.415	.492	.406	15
Albert Pujols	30	SLN	NL	1B	.314	.427	.587	.441	9
Chase Utley	31	PHI	NL	2B	.286	.382	.511	.383	13
Alex Rodriguez	34	NYA	AL	3B	.282	.389	.546	.396	-6
Hanley Ramirez	26	FLO	NL	SS	.310	.390	.530	.391	-6
Matt Holliday	30	SLN	NL	LF	.300	.384	.499	.391	9
Grady Sizemore	27	CLE	AL	CF	.261	.368	.469	.370	6
J.D. Drew	34	BOS	AL	RF	.269	.383	.472	.371	4
David Ortiz	34	BOS	AL	DH	.264	.371	.507	.374	0

wOBA: Weighted on-base average.
RS: Projected defensive runs saved compared to average, using zone rating and UZR.

In order to appear impartial, I've listed the second best player at each position besides Alex Rodriguez, since I have Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Nick Johnson all projected as the best player at their respective positions.

Since this is all theoretical, I'm going to assume these players can all play 162 games and there's no bench. If we give them enough plate appearances to add up to 4100 outs at the plate, here's how their total offense and defense would look.

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	RS	WAR	Outs
Grady Sizemore	755	.261	.368	.469	.370	114	5	4.7	477
Hanley Ramirez	755	.310	.390	.530	.391	132	-5	6.0	460
Chase Utley	755	.286	.382	.511	.383	125	12	6.6	466
Albert Pujols	755	.314	.427	.587	.441	145	8	6.8	432
Joe Mauer	750	.325	.415	.492	.406	123	12	7.2	439
Alex Rodriguez	754	.282	.389	.546	.396	131	-5	4.9	461
J.D. Drew	750	.269	.383	.472	.371	112	3	3.7	462
Matt Holliday	750	.300	.384	.499	.391	120	8	5.1	462
David Ortiz	700	.264	.371	.507	.374	118	0	2.9	441
	6774	.290	.390	.513	.391	1127	38	48.1	4100

BR: Batting runs using linear weights(absolute runs compared to zero, not position-adjusted).
RS: Projected defensive runs saved compared to average, using zone rating and UZR.
WAR: Wins above replacement (position-adjusted batting runs above replacement plus RS, divided by 10).

Not too bad.

As far as the pitching staff, I just picked the top five starters in terms of projected WAR using CAIRO, then removed A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain from the list to again conceal my bias. Then I added in the six best projected relievers, pro-rating Heath Bell's innings(#6) to get the total staff's innings to add up to 1440. Here's how that looks.

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Role	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
Roy Halladay	32	PHI	NL	SP	233	206	19	40	204	3.18	3.03	3.12	65.8	6.6
CC Sabathia	29	NYA	AL	SP	230	206	17	56	203	3.48	3.24	3.26	63.9	6.4
Felix Hernandez	23	SEA	AL	SP	215	193	17	70	191	3.50	3.25	3.52	59.2	5.9
Tim Lincecum	25	SFN	NL	SP	180	144	10	62	204	3.05	2.80	2.77	53.5	5.4
Javier Vazquez	33	NYA	AL	SP	211	194	22	49	205	3.76	3.52	3.37	52.0	5.2
Mariano Rivera	40	NYA	AL	RP	69	51	5	11	72	2.55	2.36	2.70	20.9	2.1
Joe Nathan	35	MIN	AL	RP	70	46	6	21	82	2.64	2.44	2.89	20.2	2.0
Jonathan Papelbon	29	BOS	AL	RP	68	55	5	19	76	2.68	2.57	2.86	19.5	1.9
Jonathan Broxton	25	LAN	NL	RP	71	48	4	27	96	2.81	2.65	2.49	17.7	1.8
Joakim Soria	25	KCA	AL	RP	58	47	5	17	64	3.02	2.80	3.18	14.3	1.4
Heath Bell	32	SDN	NL	RP	34	23	2	12	36	3.04	2.81	3.04	7.6	0.8
					1440	1213	113	384	1434	3.24	3.02	3.12	394.5	39.4

RA: Earned plus unearned runs allowed per nine.
FIP : Fielding Independent Pitching.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level pitcher.
WAR: RSAR divided by ten.


So you've got an offense that would project to score 1127 runs, and a defense that would save about 38 runs, along with a pitching staff that would project to allow 518 runs. So, RS = 1130. RA = 480. Plugging that into Pythagenpat gives us a winning percentage of around .839, or 136 wins.

In terms of WAR, you'd have 48.1 WAR from the position players and 39.4 from the pitchers, a total of 87.6. If a replacement level team is around 48 wins, that's 136 wins as well.