Saturday, February 6, 2010

2010 Projecting Standings - CHONE

I threw Sean Smith a few bucks to tweak CHONE to be biased for the Yankees, and here's how his projected standings look for the AL East.

AL East
New York Yankees: 99-63
Boston Red Sox: 93-69
Tampa Bay Rays: 88-74
Baltimore Orioles: 75-87
Toronto Blue Jays: 68-94

It cost me a little bit more, but I was able to get him to add this as well.
Normally, projections do not forecast the same range of wins and losses as will happen in real life. We expect that a few teams will win 95+ games, but are not sure exactly which ones, and if you pick any one team (Yankees excepted) the odds are they won't win that many games.

But yet I'm projecting 99 wins for the defending world champions. I think this is the highest projection I've ever had, for any team. I had them at 97 last year and they beat it by 6. I like the moves they have made in the last year. Curtis Granderson is a tremendous player who helps on offense and defense (at least against righties). Javier Vazquez was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and Nick Johnson is OBP Jesus. The Yankees are insanely talented, even more so than usual. The breaks of the season could mean that Boston wins the East, or even Tampa Bay, but the talent spread is so huge in this division that Baltimore and Toronto have basically no chance.

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