Thursday, February 4, 2010

2010 CAIRO Projections v0.3

I've uploaded the latest version of CAIRO, which can be downloaded here. In addition to making roster updates:



- I've added a tab for the latest projected standings.
- I've added a tab that shows the depth charts I'm using for my simulations. This includes the average wins and saves for the pitchers as they came out in the simulations.



Both of these are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TOO SERIOUSLY. Unfortunately, some people are too stupid to realize this even though I'm spelling it out as explicitly as I can. So if you're one of those people, try to read the first sentence in this paragraph again, very slowly. Feel free to move your lips while doing so if you have to.



Here's how the latest projected standings look.



AL East W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA
NYA 99.1 62.9 879 698 56.0 25.0 93-106 837-921 655-741
TAM 94.9 67.1 790 655 21.0 35.0 89-101 750-830 619-691
BOS 94.5 67.5 824 684 23.0 39.0 88-101 783-864 647-720
BAL 71.0 91.0 755 848 0.0 0.0 65-77 720-790 804-891
TOR 70.4 91.6 668 791 0.0 0.0 64-77 630-706 752-831
AL Central W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA
CHA 86.6 75.4 750 707 68.5 0.0 81-92 710-789 670-743
MIN 82.0 80.1 787 777 24.5 1.0 76-88 750-824 741-813
CLE 77.4 84.6 780 810 5.5 0.0 71-83 739-821 770-850
DET 72.1 89.9 709 800 1.5 0.0 66-78 672-747 761-840
KC 70.4 91.6 721 839 0.0 0.0 64-77 685-756 798-880
AL West W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA
TEX 81.5 80.5 767 768 34.0 0.0 75-88 732-802 730-806
LAA 80.4 81.6 747 736 30.5 0.0 74-87 712-783 697-774
SEA 80.0 82.0 715 706 24.0 0.0 74-86 677-753 671-741
OAK 78.2 83.8 679 709 12.5 0.0 72-84 642-716 667-751
NL East W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA
WAS 71.3 90.7 702 782 2.0 0.0 65-77 657-747 748-817
FLA 72.3 89.7 722 802 2.0 0.5 66-79 684-760 763-842
NYN 80.1 81.9 735 751 4.5 5.0 74-86 700-769 711-792
ATL 85.2 76.8 731 694 22.0 13.0 80-91 693-769 658-730
PHI 90.1 71.9 803 703 70.5 3.5 83-97 762-844 666-739
NL Central W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA
STL 90.5 71.5 717 638 56.5 9.0 84-97 677-757 602-675
CHN 86.2 75.8 729 679 24.5 17.3 80-92 697-760 645-713
CIN 84.2 77.8 731 705 12.0 15.3 78-90 696-766 669-741
MIL 80.9 81.1 736 738 6.5 5.0 74-88 697-774 697-779
PIT 72.6 89.4 671 745 0.0 0.0 65-80 635-706 703-787
HOU 66.1 95.9 650 796 0.5 0.0 60-72 618-682 756-836
NL West W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA
LAN 91.4 70.6 726 632 66.0 4.3 85-98 686-767 596-667
ARI 82.9 79.1 738 722 14.5 11.3 77-89 700-777 686-757
COL 82.5 79.5 802 787 15.5 9.3 76-89 761-843 738-836
SD 78.2 83.8 628 655 3.5 3.3 72-84 591-665 623-687
SF 77.1 84.9 679 713 0.5 3.0 71-83 643-715 678-749


W: Average wins over 100 iterations
L: Average losses over 100 iterations
RF: Average runs for/scored over 100 iterations
RA: Average runs allowed over 100 iterations
Div: # of times team won division over 100 iterations
WC: # of times team won wild card over 100 iterations
Std W, RF, RA: W, RF and RA within one standard deviation in either direction

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