Wednesday, January 27, 2010

MSNBC: Bye, bye Damon? Yankees sign Randy Winn

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees have signed outfielder Randy Winn to a one-year contract at around $2 million.


I had a hunch the Yanks would consider Winn. Here's his CAIRO projection for 2010 as a Yankee.



% G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SB CS DP AVG OBP SLG BR BRAR wOBA WAR
80% 101 420 378 56 110 27 3 7 45 39 56 0 15 1 4 .291 .356 .436 60 16 .348 2.2
65% 98 408 368 51 102 24 2 6 41 35 58 1 13 1 5 .277 .338 .404 51 9 .327 1.4
Baseline 96 400 360 46 95 21 2 5 37 31 61 2 11 2 6 .264 .321 .371 44 2 .307 0.8
35% 91 380 342 41 86 18 2 4 32 27 61 1 9 1 5 .250 .300 .343 36 -3 .285 0.2
20% 87 360 324 36 77 15 2 2 28 23 62 0 7 0 3 .237 .279 .314 29 -8 .263 -0.3
2009 149 597 538 65 137 32 5 2 51 49 93 1 16 2 8 .255 .315 .343 60 -2 .295 0.4

BR: Linear weights batting runs


BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level


wOBA: Weighted on-base average


WAR: Wins above replacement


That WAR includes an estimated LF defense of around +5.5 above average if he were to get 400 PAs. He'd project around -2 in CF over the same playing time.


If he's used in a strict platoon role, he'd project to hit around .280/.341/.394, for a wOBA of .326. That's still not very good, but he looks like he'll be a decent enough backup OF and platoon partner for TSBG (projected wOBA of .283 against lefties) and Curtis Granderson (projected wOBA of .294 against lefties), especially if Jamie Hoffmann ends up not being up to the task or if they want to get both TSBG and Granderson out of the lineup against a particular lefty.


Also, as Jonathan mentioned in the comments of the previous thread, the Yankees traded Mitch Hilligoss for Greg Golson. Golson was a hot prospect who was drafted 21st overall by the Phillies in 2004 but has put up a pretty poor professional line so far. Here's his CAIRO projection for 2010 as a Yankee.


% G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SB CS DP AVG OBP SLG BR BRAR wOBA
80% 132 547 520 63 123 23 6 13 51 33 133 0 25 3 10 .237 .287 .378 57 0 .293
65% 128 531 505 58 114 20 5 11 46 30 135 1 22 5 11 .226 .273 .350 48 -7 .275
Baseline 126 521 495 53 107 18 3 9 42 27 139 2 20 6 13 .216 .259 .323 39 -15 .258
35% 120 495 470 47 97 15 3 7 37 23 137 1 16 4 11 .206 .243 .299 32 -20 .241
20% 113 469 446 41 87 12 3 6 32 19 135 0 14 3 9 .195 .227 .276 24 -24 .223
2009 124 487 464 41 103 15 5 2 32 23 128 0 16 4 12 .222 .259 .289 31 -19 .246



Doesn't look like he's much of a player, although maybe he'll help out Scranton.

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