Revenge of the RLYW

RLYW.net: Looking Ahead to 2010: Jorge Posada

2010-03-17T07:25:00.000-05:00

Well, we've finally got the site back up on a different host. The URL for now is http://www.rlyw.net.

I still haven't moved any of the old posts or comments over, but all member info has been transferred so you can log in just like you did at http://www.replacementlevel.com.

This is still a work in progress, so bear with us through any growing pains, but our hope is that we should eventually end up with a more stable site, even if it doesn't look all that different on the front end.

NY Post: Jeter's upcoming deal is all about the time

2010-03-16T09:06:00.002-05:00

The Yankees know what Jeter means to them, and to their fans. Jeter knows what the Yankees mean to him, to his legacy, to his place in history.

It is a marriage destined to continue, and one that should continue, especially if Jeter has a 2010 that resembles 2009, when one of the five best shortstops ever born had one of his finest offensive seasons, when he addressed his lacking defense and responded with as strong a season with the glove as anyone could have asked. Jeter is not LaDainian Tomlinson. He may have miles on his odometer, but his engine is still in prime condition. And still has prime years left.

But over the past couple of days, the Yankees have gotten a taste of what renewing those vows will really mean. Adeinis Hechavarria, a 21-year-old Cuban refugee who starred for his homeland's junior team two years ago and defected to Mexico last year, was widely believed earmarked for the Yankees.

It made all the sense in the world: Hechavarria's talents translate to $10 million, about $2 million more than the Red Sox gave Jose Iglesias, another Cuban defector. Hechavarria's skills could easily translate to second base or center field, where the Yankees might have openings in the near future. And the Yankees . . . well, they are the Yankees. More often than not they get what -- and whom -- they want.

Only it doesn't appear they are going to get Hechavarria.

Sunday, the Post's George King, citing industry sources, reported that Hechavarria is all but assured of signing with the Blue Jays. Losing Hechavarria is hardly a gut-shot for the Yankees; whether he could withstand the rigors of major-league baseball and ever be Jeter's true heir remains unanswered, and will for a few years. It's why Hechavarria looked elsewhere that's intriguing.

He doesn't want to be a second baseman. He doesn't want to be a center fielder.

He wants to be a shortstop.

And right now -- and for the foreseeable future -- the Yankees already have a shortstop.

I don't think losing out on Hechavarria is a big deal considering he has gone from 19 to 21 in a few months and didn't really hit all that well in Cuba. I also don't know if Jeter as a roadblock is really going to be an issue after the next year or two, at least as far as blocking the signing of an amateur talent who's a few years away from seeing the majors.

I just fear a 5 year or 6 year extension that keeps Jeter in pinstripes past an age where he can remain useful, but we'll see what happens.

MLB.com: Aceves hard for Yankees to ignore

2010-03-15T10:37:00.003-05:00

The 27-year-old right-hander turned in another four strong innings in Saturday's 5-3 Grapefruit League victory over the Orioles at George M. Steinbrenner Field, allowing his first earned run of the spring but otherwise holding his bid together heading through the second half of camp.

Aceves served up a home run to the first batter he faced in relief of starter Javier Vazquez -- a solo shot to center off the bat of Garrett Atkins -- but the rest of Aceves' spring outing went smoothly.

Scattering three hits with no walks and one strikeout, Aceves exited with a 0.90 ERA through his 10 spring innings.

The Yankees headed to camp with Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes thought to be leading a pack that also includes Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre for the final spot in the rotation, but on a day when Gaudin allowed three runs in three innings in a 6-2 loss to the Tigers, it seemed to be Aceves who has stated his case most convincingly.

"It's impressive, because of the different things he's been able to do with the baseball," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. "He changes speeds, [has] late movement, pitches up and down. He changes eye level, in and out. He can do all of those things.

I really didn't think Aceves had a chance at the rotation heading into this spring, but if his competition continues to suck and he continues to pitch well, it's starting to look like more and more of a possibility.

While I think Aceves could probably be around league average as a starter, and could conceivably be the best fifth starter candidate in camp right now, I don't think a scenario that sees neither Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain in the rotation to start the year is good for the Yankees in the long-term, unless they would be willing to put one of them in the AAA rotation.

RLYW Fantasy League

2010-03-15T05:07:00.002-05:00

Just a reminder that we still have spots open in the RLYW fantasy league. The ID is 234542 and the password is CAIRO.

Spring is for the Young

2010-03-12T19:10:00.003-05:00

Jesus Montero has looked better than expected, defensively. However, this may not be saying much as the expectation going in was that he would drop the ball on every pitch/fielding opportunity and struggle to toss it back to the pitcher’s mound. In actuality, the times he’s been behind the plate I’ve forgotten he was there other than the fact that he is noticeable larger than your average backstop. Acknowledging that there is likely inherent bias, the reports that I’ve read/heard out of camp about his defense this spring seem to indicate the same thing: not a butcher, which is all that’s being asked of him. Offensively, he looks very imposing and has demonstrated a good command of the zone.

Christian Garcia has shown flashes. Despite annual trips to the DL lasting months (or seasons) at a time he seems to have found the time to develop a good change-up (ask Ryan Howard). The low to mid 80s change, nicely complements his 91-93 sinking fastball. The curveball hasn’t been as electric as advertised, but with a guy coming off 79 surgeries, I suppose you take what you can get. Hopefully, he’s able to stay healthy this year, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Despite going 5 for 12, Brandon Laird hasn’t stuck in my memory offensively. However, I will remember him for an awesome defensive play on Joey Gathright in the Blue Jays game. Laird stabbed a bouncing ball to his backhand side, then fired a laser over to first to get…THE SPEEDY GATHRIGHT. Didn’t know he had an arm like that.

McAllister and Nova both looked solid in brief appearances. Physically, they looked the part and both had good, not great, stuff. Nova kept the ball down and seemed to have good movement on his pitches. The velocity wasn’t blazing, but his motion was effortless, you can see why the organization’s scouts have always been high on him. McAllister had a decent slider and mixed things up with a 2 seamer and a 4, but I didn’t see a change-up.

Random Thoughts:

-Romulo Sanchez is Fat K-Rod.

-Eduardo Nunez has a poor approach and wild swing, don’t see things working out for him in AAA.

-Colin Curtis has shown surprising pop

-Melancon’s curve has looked pretty good, but the fastball command still isn’t where it needs to be.

I haven't seen every inning of every game, so I'd love to get some discussion about other things people have noticed about some of the younger players

NY Post: CC knows what Phil and Joba are feeling

2010-03-12T08:34:00.001-05:00

TAMPA -- Nine years ago, CC Sabathia was in a spot similar to the one Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain are in today.

He was 20 years old and locked in a fight with Steve Karsay for the fifth spot in the Cleveland rotation.

One difference was that Sabathia and Karsay waged their battle in Winter Haven, with only two newspapers covering the competition.

Chamberlain and Hughes? Their fight plays out on the back page of The Post. They also have Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre and Alfredo Aceves in the hunt.

I still think Joba can be a good starter, so I'm pulling for him to win the fifth starter spot out of camp. I think if Hughes starts out in the pen he'll still have a chance at the rotation in the future, whereas if Joba starts out in the pen that is pretty much where he's going to end up.

NorthJersey.com: Brett Gardner off to races for Yankees

2010-03-09T06:47:00.002-05:00

FORT MYERS, Fla. — Leading off Sunday’s third inning at Hammond Field, Brett Gardner made good on a spring training promise.

The Yankees’ speedy outfielder bunted for a single — an element to Gardner’s game that Joe Girardi wants to see more of this season. “That’s a weapon that he has to use,” the manager said.

Once on first base, Gardner displayed his ability to further disrupt a game by trying to steal second. Only this time, he had to outrun a mistake.

Twins veteran lefty Mike Maroth threw to first as Gardner bolted for second. Between the bases, Gardner slammed on the brakes and sprinted back to first base safely — narrowly avoiding the pursuit of shortstop Matt Tolbert.

On a team that is pretty much set everywhere, Gardner's one of the more interesting stories in camp this year. Really, if he can maintain the same offensive performance he had in 2009, he's a viable starter in LF.

BTW, sorry for the lack of meaningful posts lately, I'm dealing with some stuff that's cutting into my blogging time. I'm hoping to be able to start my player projections next week.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees, 1:05 PM ET Game Chatter

2010-03-08T13:19:00.002-05:00

Javy's first pitch gave me flashbacks to 2004.

The game's on YES and the Yankees are playing with a split squad. And Nick Johnson is alive.

NY Yankees hope Francisco Cervelli's surprising season was more than a fluke

2010-03-07T21:23:00.003-05:00

Two years ago, Cervelli broke his wrist in an infamous home plate collision in spring training that delayed his development as a hitter. Last November, he suffered a concussion playing winter ball when the backswing of a bat hit a spot on his head about three inches above his left ear.

And Saturday, he suffered another concussion that will sideline him for at least a few days when he was hit by a fastball on that exact same spot above his ear. His latest bad break came on his 24th birthday.

---

As they did with Molina, the Yankees view Cervelli strictly as a defensive specialist. Any offensive contribution is a bonus. And if Posada catches between 100 to 120 games, which is Yankees manager Joe Girardi’s stated goal, Cervelli’s bat will be as much of a non-issue as Mariano Rivera’s pitch selection.

But if Posada is sidelined for any significant period with injuries — the 38-year-old battled hamstring issues last season — the Yankees could find themselves leaning on a player whose line-drive rate went from 12.7 percent in the minors to an inexplicable 20.5 in the big leagues.

It doesn't sound like his recent injury is too serious, although concussions are never really "minor". Cervelli was one of the unexpected fun parts of last season's run. He's probably not likely to repeat his performance from last year. But he's sure to get a chance to try with a 38 year old catcher starting in front of him.

Impressions

2010-03-05T16:41:00.005-05:00

I didn't get home until the 7th inning, but I liked what I saw from some of our young guys.

I missed Montero's walk, but he showed good plate discipline when he was called out on strikes, laying off some close pitches and then got rung up on another borderline pitch. He looked fine on defense, too. He moved pretty slow laterally and popping out of the crouch, but I thought his receiving looked good and he did a good job using his body to keep the ball in front of him. It's only a couple innings and I wouldn't say it was any better than alright, but I can't say I saw anything that would make me take Posada's defense over his either -- admittedly, pretty low standards.

Vazquez -- not really young but whatever -- has a powerful swing. If only he had plate discipline... still, I think a team without playoff aspirations would be smart to give him a chance. He could hit for some serious power.

Corona showed some nice range to his left on a GB, and I'd like to see what his arm strength is like. Russo had a nice opposite field hit, hanging in on a breaking ball from a lefty.

NY Post: Worry level spikes as DH scratched

2010-03-05T07:29:00.001-05:00

CLEARWATER, Fla. — You just knew that at some point Nick Johnson was going to get injured.

It happens.

But before the second game of spring training and before the game? What in the name of Johnny Damon is going on?

Even by Johnson’s standards, this was a strange one. The DH made the wrong choice in pregame footwear and paid the price, tweaking his lower back during batting practice. Here we go again.

If this was anyone other than Johnson, it'd be a non-story. Unfortunately, it's not anyone other than Johnson.

The Hardball Times: Introducing THT Forecasts

2010-03-04T10:09:00.003-05:00

The Hardball Times released their 2010 forecasts today. Here's a list of what they've got.

- Oliver projections for the next six years for over 7,000 major and minor league players. These projections include hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics (the latter based on Brian Cartwright’s own play-by-play system), wins above replacement (WAR) projections, and coming soon, base running as well. You can read more about Oliver here.
- Raw statistics for the past three years, including all the statistical categories listed above.
- Major league equivalencies (MLEs) for the past three seasons, so you can see not just a player’s raw past statistics, but also how his numbers look adjusted for context.
- Depth chart projections to tell you just how much of an impact a player will make at the major league level this season.
- Over 1,300 player comments (and counting) from the best team bloggers on the internet, to give you a more subjective look at just about every player that matters.
- And all of the above, updated each and every week, from now until October.
- Plus, many more features, such as projected standings and personal player watch lists, with more to come very soon.

It costs $14.95 if you want to see all of them, but luckily for us, the Yankees forecasts are free. Unfortunately for us, I'm the guy who wrote the Yankee player comments, which means they're ridiculously biased. But you may want to check them out anyway.

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees, 1:05 PM ET Game Chatter/Live Blog

2010-03-03T12:52:00.027-05:00

It's the first spring training game of the year, and it's on YES! I'll try and live blog a bit as it goes along for those who can't watch.

Pre-game:
Yankee win probability: -100.0%

One minute into the first game and I'm already tired of Michael Kay...

Pitching matchup is Paul Maholm vs. Chad Gaudin. According to Kay, Gaudin's battling for the fifth spot in the rotation. That's about as true as me battling for Adriana Lima.

Top of the first
And we're off. Gaudin pitching to Andrew McCutchen. Guadin hit 92 on his last pitch. McCutchen grounds one up the middle, Ramiro Pena gets to it but can't get it to first in time.

Bad pickoff throw moves McCutchen to second, then Akinori Iwamura grounds back to Gaudin. ~~Kevin Maas~~ Garret Jones up now. He pops one to CF and Curtis Granderson grabs it. Yay Curtis! Ryan Doumit up. A grounder to Teixeira ends it. Gaudin faced three lefties and got them all out.

Bottom of the first
Derek Jeter leads it off. He grounds out to short, and here's Granderson.
Batting second? I would have him bat fifth and put Nick Johnson here. He grounds out.

YES just ran a very interesting graphic. Apparently Granderson didn't do very well against lefties last year.

Teixeira grounds out to end the inning. Boo.

Top of the second
The Bucs go down in order. Congratulations to Chad Gaudin for winning the fifth starter's job!

Bottom of the second
Ross Ohlendorf in for the Pirates now. A-Fraud is up. Boo. Oh, wait, he's not A-Fraud anymore, is he? Yay! He strikes out. Boo.

Marcus Thames up in his bid to make the team. Apparently, and this is the first time I've heard this, he is a former Yankee and he homered off Randy Johnson on the first pitch he saw in the majors. That's a really cool tidbit that I wish would be mentioned more frequently.

I'm assuming Thames and whoever was hitting after him made outs because now a commercial is on.

Top of the third
Sergio Mitre in now. He gets three ground ball outs, two to the Captain and one to A-Freud.

Bottom of the third
Nothing of note happened.

Top of the fourth
Mitre faces six Pirates and retires them all. That'd like retiring one Red Sock. Congratulations to Mitre on winning the fifth starter's job!

Bottom of the fourth
Ohlendorf out, Carrasco in. Jeter grounds out. Granderson and Teixiera are also both retired. Is it odd that until Michael Kay mentioned it just now I had no idea that Teixeira led the league in RBI last year?

Top of the fifth
Alfredo Aceves in now and he gives up a deep fly to the warning track in RF, where Jamie Hoffmann chases it down. Pretty nice play by Hoffmann. Is it Hoffmann, or Hoffman?

Another warning track fly ball, this time to LF and Gardner fights the sun and makes a nice catch himself. Hey Alfredo, those fly balls ain't gonna play in DNYS.

Ramiro Pena makes a good play on a hard grounder to second to end the frame.

Bottom of the fifth
I think this is the last inning I can blog, so how some runs?

Typical A-Rod, singling in a meaningless spring training game.

Randy Winn played basketball in college? I had no idea. Thames gets grazed by a pitch and the Yanks have two on with no outs, and here's Hoffmann. He grounds to second, moving the runners up.

TSBG gets a shot to drive in a run or two here. Gardner lines out to short and Francisco Cervelli grounds out to end the threat. This team stinks.

And with that, I'm out.

Lohud.com: Yanks designate Ramirez for assignment

2010-03-02T23:06:00.001-05:00

TAMPA, Fla. — The Yankees made their signing of Chan Ho Park official on Sunday, which meant they had to open a spot on the 40-man roster. It was Edwar Ramirez who paid the price.

Ramirez was designated for assignment, leaving the Yankees 10 days to either trade him or attempt to pass him through waivers.

"Selfishly, we hope we can keep him in the organization," general manager Brian Cashman said. "But we'll know here in the next 10 days how realistic that is."

Maybe I'm nuts, but I'd bet that if given the opportunity, Edwar would out pitch Park. I guess he'll get that opportunity in Washington or something now.

NJ.com NY Yankees pitcher Javier Vazquez moves ahead of the curve

2010-03-02T07:51:00.002-05:00

FanGraphs, through the use of pitch f/x data provided by Major League Baseball, attempts to measure the effectiveness of certain pitches. According to their data, Vazquez saw an across-the-board jump in the value of all four of his pitches (fastball, curveball, slider, changeup). Clearly, the use of his curveball was only one part of Vazquez's improvement in 2009.

Yet, no pitch in Vazquez's arsenal saw as much of a drastic bump in value as his curve, which according to FanGraphs ranked as one of the game's nastiest.

Vazquez's curveball saved a career-high 17.2 runs above average last season, putting him behind only the Astros' Wandy Rodriguez (23.9) and the Cardinals' Adam Wainwright (23.3).

Javier Vazquez may be one of the key factors in whether or not the Yankees can take the AL East. While expecting him to repeat last year where he was one of the best pitchers in baseball is probably not realistic, If he can give the Yankees 200 innings of 3.50 - 4.00 ERA I'd have to think the Yankees would be in the driver's seat for the division title.

If last year's success is actually due to a change in approach, ie using his curve more often, it bodes well for 2010.

NY Post: New Yankee Curtis Granderson improving vs. lefties

2010-03-01T09:11:00.003-05:00

TAMPA -- The Granderson Project is in full swing.

Yankees outfielder Curtis Granderson took live batting practice off a left-hander on Field 2 yesterday and early in the second round lined a pitch up the middle. That's progress.

Granted the left-handed pitcher was Kei Igawa, but Granderson is in the process of attacking left-handers in a much different way than he has in the past.

His development is one of the huge keys of this spring training. In Johnny Damon, the Yankees had a sure thing at the plate. Granderson is still developing as a hitter. He batted .183 against lefties last season and is a .210 hitter over his career, so something has to change. Only two of his 30 home runs last year came against lefthanders.

In his career, Granderson has an overall wOBA of .352 vs. RHP and .266 against LHP. His CAIRO projected splits are .361 vs. RHP and .299 vs. LHP. Over 200 PAs vs. LHP the difference between those splits is about six runs. His projected LHP split would still be below average, but it'd allow the Yankees a little bit more leeway in how Granderson is utilized, say in late innings against LHP.

I wouldn't expect him to ever become good against lefties, but I am optimistic he will be better.

Assorted News

2010-02-27T13:59:00.004-05:00

Not a whole lot going on yet, but thankfully games will be starting soon and Chad Jennings has the schedule for starters:

The Yankees have not announced which relievers will be pitching each day. The first time through, their starters will be limited to roughly 35 pitches.
The first name listed is that day’s starter. The other names will pitch in relief.
March 3 vs. Pittsburgh
Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre, Alfredo Aceves
March 4 at Philadelphia
CC Sabathia
March 5 vs. Tampa Bay
Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain
March 6 vs. Toronto
A.J. Burnett
March 7 at Minnesota
Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin
March 8 vs. Philadelphia (ss)
Javier Vazquez
March 8 at Pittsburgh (ss)
Alfredo Aceves
March 9 vs. Pittsburgh
CC Sabathia
March 10 at Detroit
Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes
March 11 vs. Atlanta
A.J. Burnett
March 12 at Washington
Andy Pettitte

Looks like every game but 3/7 and 3/10 will be televised.

Not surprisingly, Marcus Thames has an opt-out if he doesn't make the club out of ST.

"He was brought in to compete for a spot on the 25-man roster," Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Friday. "And at the end of camp, if he makes it, great. If he doesn’t make it, he’s free."

I don't think it will make much of a difference who wins the 5th OF spot. Hoffmann's .815 OPS in AAA last year was actually below average (95 OPS+), since the PCL is a more hitter friendly league than most minor leagues and Albuquerque plays like Coors used to. On the other hand, all Thames offers is power against LHP, his defense the last couple years has been horrid.

Thames might make a bit more sense for this roster, with Granderson's splits and Winn, Gardner, and Granderson all above average defenders, but I doubt the difference is more than 1/2 a win or so.

And changeups galore from a couple of our pitchers:

TAMPA, Fla. -- Encouraged by a full season of watching CC Sabathia dominate hitters with his changeup, Yankees pitcher A.J. Burnett spent his entire offseason trying to improve his own version of the pitch.
Burnett said he's never spent more time trying to refine his changeup, even enlisting the help of an old friend and neighbor, Reds reliever Arthur Rhodes.
"I think it's a big key," said Burnett, who wants the pitch to be reliable enough to use when his curveball is off. "Whether I throw it or not, I don't know. But I've been working it."
In 2005, his last with the Marlins, Burnett threw a career-high 9.9 percent changeups according to FanGraphs. But since that season, that number has slipped. And by 2009, Burnett's first with the Yankees, Burnett threw changeups on only 3.1 percent of his pitches.

Marc Carig

Hughes said that he is trying to focus on commanding his fastball, and believes that his arm speed and velocity are fine for this time in the spring. He said that his breaking ball is bouncing a little more than wanted, though that's better than hanging it.

He is continuing to experiment with yet another changeup grip -- "I've probably had about 29 changeup grips in the last year and a half," he said -- which is more like a straight circle-change and could help him as a fourth pitch.

MLB.com

LoHud: Hughes and Chamberlain throwing BP today

2010-02-26T10:42:00.001-05:00

Today’s live batting practice assignments for Field 1 start with these two names: Hughes, Chamberlain.

Guess which field Joe Girardi will be watching.

Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain will face hitters for the first time this afternoon, but we’ve already seen that these batting practice sessions don’t tell us a whole lot about the hitters or the pitchers. Hitters are mostly tracking pitches. Pitchers are announcing what they’re about to throw, then trying to throw strikes.

That said, this is clearly the next step in the fifth starter competition.

May the best man win.

The Star-Ledger: NY Yankees captain Derek Jeter says contract won't become distraction

2010-02-24T11:51:00.001-05:00

Speaking just before he and the Yankees took the field for team's first full-squad workout of spring training, Jeter reiterated his desire to finish his career in pinstripes, and insisted that he will not allow his own status to become a distraction as the team prepares to defend the world championship.

"This is the last time I'm going to talk about it because I think it's unfair to be talking about myself while we're trying to win," said Jeter, whose 10-year, $189 million deal expires at season's end. "That's the approach I've always had. That's not going to change. I know that it's going to maybe cause a lot of speculation, there may be a few stories out there. But it won't be a distraction because I won't be talking about it."

2010 CAIRO Projections v0.4

2010-02-23T10:41:00.004-05:00

I've uploaded the latest version of CAIRO, which can be downloaded here. As far as what's new:

- Updated for roster changes

- Fixed Juan Rivera's projection (there was another Juan Rivera that made his projection worse than it should have been)

- For position players, I've changed how I calculate offensive replacement level to match how it's done on Fangraphs and The Book. I used to calculate my own position adjustment based on a weighted average of the prior four years, but I figure it's better to be consistent with how other places do it as long as it's based on a solid methodology.

- I've updated the tab for the latest projected standings.

- The depth charts I'm using for my simulations have been updated to reflect all the recent roster activity through Chan Ho Park signing with the Yankees, and I've added simulated runs and RBIs to the hitter depth charts.

- I've added a tab for projected wOBA platoon splits for any players who've seen major league action. I'm using the methodology outlined in this post at Another Cubs Blog, which is a very good sabermetrically-inclined blog. In a nutshell:

1) Calculate the player's career wOBA split vs. LHP/RHP
2) Regress the split based on the research from The Book which shows that we should regress RHB against 2200 PAs, LHB against 1000 PAs, and switch-hitters against 600 PAs.
3) Use the player's historical PA distributions to figure out how his playing time will be distributed against LHP/RHP
4) Use all of the above with his projected wOBA to figure out his projected 2010 wOBA splits

It's pre-filled with CAIRO's 2010 wOBA projections, but you can replace those with any projected wOBA you want and it will re-calculate them.

- I added a tab which will let you play around with a team's lineup and bench to figure out how the entire team projects. I'll probably add a similar tab for pitching in the next update. You can change players, position and PAs and it will calculate everything else.

I'll again reiterate that the depth charts and projected standings are STILL EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TOO SERIOUSLY. I'll make the same suggestion about reading that sentence again slowly with your lips moving if you can't understand it. If you can't do that while breathing through your mouth, read a word, take a breath, read the next word, repeat.

And here's how the latest projected standings look.


Date	2/23/2010
Iterations	50000
American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Yankees	99.4	62.6	881	693	46.3%	24.0%	-3.6	-34	-60	91-107
Red Sox	93.8	68.2	824	688	27.4%	24.6%	-1.2	-48	-48	86-102
Rays	93.1	68.9	783	665	25.0%	24.0%	9.1	-20	-89	85-101
Orioles	68.5	93.5	746	855	1.0%	1.8%	4.5	5	-21	60-79
Blue Jays	64.3	97.7	661	794	0.4%	0.9%	-10.7	-137	23	56-76
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Twins	83.2	78.8	799	786	28.7%	3.4%	-3.8	-18	21	75-92
White Sox	81.8	80.2	738	741	24.7%	3.3%	2.8	14	9	74-91
Indians	80.8	81.2	798	807	21.9%	3.2%	15.8	25	-58	73-90
Tigers	80.3	81.7	735	752	20.8%	3.1%	-5.7	-8	7	72-90
Royals	67.5	94.5	715	846	3.9%	0.7%	2.5	29	4	59-79
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Mariners	82.6	79.4	702	680	30.1%	3.0%	-2.4	62	-12	74-92
Rangers	81.4	80.6	761	765	27.2%	2.9%	-5.6	-23	25	73-91
Angels	80.7	81.3	746	742	25.0%	2.9%	-16.3	-137	-19	73-90
Athletics	77.6	84.4	679	703	17.7%	2.2%	2.6	-80	-58	70-87
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Phillies	91.7	70.3	810	708	46.9%	8.7%	-1.3	-10	-1	84-100
Braves	84.5	77.5	737	708	23.4%	8.1%	-1.5	2	67	76-93
Marlins	80.0	82.0	762	771	14.1%	5.8%	-7.0	-10	5	72-89
Mets	77.1	84.9	744	778	9.9%	4.2%	7.1	73	21	69-87
Nationals	73.1	88.9	700	779	5.8%	2.7%	14.1	-10	-95	65-83
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Cardinals	90.6	71.4	719	644	36.6%	12.0%	-0.4	-11	4	83-99
Reds	85.5	76.5	744	711	22.2%	10.0%	7.5	71	-12	77-94
Cubs	83.8	78.2	729	712	17.8%	9.4%	0.8	22	40	76-93
Brewers	83.8	78.2	736	718	17.5%	9.2%	3.8	-49	-100	76-93
Pirates	73.6	88.4	676	747	4.8%	3.3%	11.6	40	-21	65-84
Astros	64.1	97.9	654	812	1.1%	0.7%	-9.9	11	42	56-76
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-	Std W
Rockies	84.7	77.3	796	764	27.4%	6.6%	-7.3	-8	49	77-94
Dodgers	84.6	77.4	714	678	27.0%	6.2%	-10.4	-66	67	77-93
Diamondbacks	81.5	80.5	738	728	19.3%	5.3%	11.5	18	-54	73-91
Giants	78.3	83.7	674	702	13.3%	4.0%	-9.7	17	91	70-88
Padres	77.9	84.1	631	657	12.9%	3.9%	2.9	-7	-112	70-88

W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
W+/-: 2010 projected wins minus 2009 actual wins
RS+/-: 2010 projected runs scored minus 2009 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2010 projected runs allowed minus 2009 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation

Baseball Prospectus thinks the Yankees are more like an 89 win team, although that could and probably will change, again. Their runs scored projection of 847 runs doesn't jive with their projected team line of .278/.367/.458. Of the 28 teams in MLB history to hit for an OPS of at least .825, the fewest runs scored by any of them was 897. Maybe they think the Yankees are going to hit into 100 extra double plays than an average team, or maybe they think they'll be -50 in baserunning. Or maybe they think the entire team will catch the Cano with RISP bug.

I'm going to be on vacation for the rest of the week, but I've asked Jonathan and Kyle to keep the site updated.

NorthJersey.com; Veteran pitcher Chan Ho Park joining Yankees

2010-02-22T11:49:00.003-05:00

TAMPA, Fla. – Veteran right-hander Chan Ho Park said he’s agreed to join the Yankees, in a further effort to bolster their bullpen.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman could not specifically address the issue. However, Cashman acknowledged that he’s had talks with Park’s agent for some time. He also likes what Park can offer a club, “especially out of the bullpen."

My first reaction was, really? What's the point? Park hasn't been a bad pitcher out of the bullpen, but is he really any better than whomever the Yankees had on hand? Anyway, here's his CAIRO projection as a Yankee reliever.

%	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	7	4	94	92	44	39	10	28	79	4.25	3.78	3.85	10.0	1.0
65%	6	4	89	93	48	43	11	30	71	4.81	4.30	4.33	4.0	0.4
Baseline	5	5	85	93	51	46	12	31	64	5.43	4.88	4.80	-2.1	-0.2
35%	4	4	77	88	49	45	13	31	54	5.81	5.24	5.27	-5.1	-0.5
20%	3	4	68	82	47	42	13	29	45	6.19	5.60	5.74	-7.4	-0.7
2009	3	3	83	87	44	42	5	32	70	4.72	4.50	3.59	4.6	0.5

CAIRO is not impressed, although I still have to apply the Yankee tweak to this which will shave about two runs off his RA/ERA/FIP. This projection also includes Park's time as a (mostly) bad starter since 2006. If we just look at his relief splits over the last two seasons, he's put up 120.1 innings of 3.29 ERA, with a FIP of 3.82. So he may be a useful middle relief arm.

I figure this will be like the LaTroy Hawkins signing of 2008. He'll be a veteran arm they can use in low leverage situations, with the possibility for a more important role if he can pitch well. If he sucks, he'll get released and sign with the Astros and dominate the lesser league.

It's a meh move, but it shouldn't hurt the team, and may help.

Update: As requested, here's Chad Gaudin's strictly relief projection, using the same 85 innings that I had for Park.

%	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	8	3	94	72	32	29	6	31	102	3.07	2.80	2.95	22.2	2.2
65%	7	3	89	73	35	32	7	32	93	3.53	3.24	3.39	16.7	1.7
Baseline	6	3	85	74	38	35	8	34	84	4.03	3.71	3.83	11.1	1.1
35%	5	3	77	70	37	34	9	33	71	4.36	4.03	4.28	7.3	0.7
20%	4	3	68	66	35	33	9	32	60	4.69	4.34	4.72	4.0	0.4
2009	6	10	147	137	97	87	14	71	136	5.95	5.30	4.20	-12.1	-1.2

The start->relief conversion seems to be overrating Gaudin a bit, but he does have a career 4.72 ERA as a starter compared to 4.00 as a reliever.

North Jersey.com: Klapisch: Red Sox answer Yankees’ brawn with defense

2010-02-22T07:55:00.000-05:00

Today, their universe revolves around pitching, defense and run-prevention — Whether the Sox’s arms can contain the Yankees’ run-scoring machine will be the biggest question of the summer. But after watching the Bombers lead the majors in virtually every offensive category in 2009, Boston GM Theo Epstein decided there had to be a smarter way to recapture the East.

While Boston's defense is certainly improved from last season, they don't even project to be the best defense in the division. Here's how I have the primary starters for each team projected defensively for 2010, using a weighted average of 2006-2009 zone rating and UZR with some regression towards the mean and aging factored in.

Pos	Red Sox	RS	Yankees	RS	Rays	RS
1B	Kevin Youkilis	4	Mark Teixeira	3	Carlos Pena	-2
2B	Dustin Pedroia	9	Robinson Cano	-1	Ben Zobrist	14
3B	Adrian Beltre	8	Alex Rodriguez	-4	Evan Longoria	14
C	Victor Martinez	3	Jorge Posada	-5	Dioner Navarro	2
CF	Mike Cameron	5	Curtis Granderson	6	B.J. Upton	3
LF	Jacoby Ellsbury	2	Brett Gardner	8	Carl Crawford	12
RF	J.D. Drew	2	Nick Swisher	0	Gabe Kapler	9
SS	Marco Scutaro	3	Derek Jeter	-4	Jason Bartlett	2
Total		36		3		53

RS: Runs saved compared to average, using an average of zone rating and UZR

We have sample size issues with several of these projections, particularly with Ben Zobrist, and the standard caveats about the reliability of defensive metrics apply as always. The benches could also change the overall numbers a bit. Despite that, I'm pretty comfortable in stating that Tampa's defense should be the best in the AL East, and will probably be neck and neck with Seattle for best overall defense in the AL in 2010. Despite that, I'm sure we'll be hearing about Boston's defense all year.

MLB.com: Elder statesman Pettitte up to challenge

2010-02-19T20:17:00.004-05:00

While Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes begin vying for the attention of the coaching staff, still trying to make the biggest leaps in their professional careers, Pettitte is saving his bullets for one more tour through the American League East.

Once again, Pettitte will try to juggle the responsibilities of being a father figure, both in the Yankees' clubhouse and at his Texas home. It has been a difficult balancing act, but Pettitte believes that the game will eventually tell him when it's time to stop.

"I don't want to go home and miss it, and [have] it killing me," Pettitte said. "When I do it, I want to be done with it. I don't think it'd be fair to my family to say, 'I'm done,' and then pull the rug from right out underneath them. The biggest thing is that I want to make sure I fully have exhausted myself of this."

NY Daily News-Feinsand: Entering contract's final year, New York Yankees' Mariano Rivera taking career one step at a time

2010-02-19T10:46:00.002-05:00

Rivera joined the rest of the Yankees' pitchers and catchers for the first official workout of the spring Thursday as he started the final year of his contract. GM Brian Cashman has made it clear that he has no intention to discuss a new deal with Rivera, Derek Jeter or Joe Girardi before the end of the season, but the closer doesn't seem bothered.

"I have a contract this year, that's all I need to know," Rivera said. "The rest is out of my control, therefore I don't have to worry about it."
...
Rivera has posted a sub-2.00 ERA in six of the past seven seasons, averaging 40 saves and only three blown saves during that stretch. His past two years have been extraordinary: 83saves, three blown saves, a 1.58 ERA, 149 strikeouts and 18 walks in 137 innings. Not bad for an old guy.

If Mo's not worried, we shouldn't be worried.

MLB.com: Before games, prognosticators clash

2010-02-17T22:44:00.001-05:00

The Yankees and Red Sox will battle it out in the AL East. The Rangers will supplant the Angels atop the AL West. And Joey Votto will put up some monster numbers for the Reds.

Those projections for the 2010 season are brought to you, respectively, by the increasingly familiar yet still difficult-to-understand statistical projection systems known as PECOTA, Marcel and CHONE.

These, along with others called CAIRO, ZiPS, FANS and maybe a few more that don't have strange anagrammed names, are soon to be the talk of the preseason.

CAIRO mentioned on MLB.com? Don't they know it's biased?

MLB.com: Yankees report to camp ready to repeat

2010-02-17T11:15:00.002-05:00

TAMPA, Fla. -- The offseason was much shorter than it usually is, but the Yankees would not have preferred it any other way. Now, it's time to do it all over again.

Three months after celebrating their 27th World Series championship, the Yankees' pitchers and catchers officially reported to George M. Steinbrenner Field on Wednesday, checking in with teammates and greeting manager Joe Girardi as they began the march to their possible title repeat.

Rumor has it they're in the best shape of their lives.

For those who missed out on the first RLYW fantasy baseball league, Jonathan has set up a second one.

The second fantasy league is up for those that got locked out of the first. Same instructions for signing up for this one except the ID is 234542 and the password again is CAIRO.

Please, if you're already in the first league, let those who got locked out sign up for this one first. If it doesn't get filled in a few days, you can double your fantasy fun and sign up. - Jonathan

MLB.com: Wang agrees to deal with Nationals

2010-02-16T14:55:00.001-05:00

The Nationals have agreed to terms with right-hander Chien-Ming Wang, a baseball source has confirmed to MLB.com. The terms of the agreement were not disclosed.

The Nationals are scheduled to hold a news conference Friday at Space Coast Stadium in Viera, Fla.

The United Daily News, a Taiwanese newspaper, was the first to break the news. The Nationals have not confirmed that Wang has signed with the team.

Best of luck to Wang.

How Did DNYS Play in 2009?

2010-02-15T08:49:00.005-05:00

I've been messing around with the component park factors for (Disgraceful) New Yankee Stadium and figured I'd post what they look like.

	LHB	LHB		RHB	RHB
Event	NYA road	DNYS	Ratio	NYA road	DNYS	Ratio
H	779	787	0.99	712	704	0.99
1B	481	499	1.02	464	472	1.02
2B	170	143	0.83	159	125	0.79
3B	20	13	0.64	10	2	0.20
HR	108	132	1.20	79	105	1.33
BB	284	335	1.14	266	286	1.08
HBP	24	26	1.05	41	34	0.84
K	586	594	1.00	556	538	0.98
AVG	.270	.268	0.99	.267	.264	0.99
OBP	.339	.346	1.02	.340	.342	1.01
SLG	.455	.460	1.01	.424	.431	1.02
wOBA	.345	.350	1.02	.335	.340	1.01
BABIP	.301	.291	0.97	.305	.291	0.95
BR	455	487	1.07	405	413	1.02
BR/Out	.216	.226	1.05	.206	.210	1.02

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
BR: Context-neutral linear weights batting runs
BR/Outs: BR per out made Ratio: DNYS value divided by road value, pro-rated to same number of PAs/ABs

Obviously, a lot of the focus was on the HR boost in 2009. We can see from this that despite that, it severly dampened 2Bs, and was slightly dampening ot hits in general. Although it may seem counter-intuitive that a park can have factors for BBs and Ks, it can. Things like the batter's eye, or how many games are played in the day versus night can have some impact. Also, the size of the foul ground can lead to shorter or longer PAs that can increase or decrease the likelihood of BBs and Ks (and all offensive events).

Focusing again on the HR factors, RHB got a bigger boost in home run rate than LHB. On a rate basis (HR/AB), RHB (opponents and Yankees) hit 33% more HRs per AB at DNYS than they did on the road. LHB also got a boost, but more like 20%.

Because we only have one season of data, we need to be cognizant of the fact that these numbers don't tell us enough to assume we will know how DNYS will play going forward. In addition to the general issue with making assumptions based on small sample sizes, one thing that doesn't get mentioned but really should be is that a couple of players can skew these park factors pretty significantly. To illustrate this, let's look at a list of all RHB and the number of HRs they hit at DNYS. Switch-hitters are being counted as RHB if they were batting from the right side.

player	split	bat	ab	hr
Rodriguez, Alex	DNYS	R	227	18
Jeter, Derek	DNYS	R	311	13
Posada, Jorge	DNYS	R	69	5
Teixeira, Mark	DNYS	R	91	4
Longoria, Evan	DNYS	R	27	4
Cabrera, Melky	DNYS	R	87	3
Bartlett, Jason	DNYS	R	17	3
Kinsler, Ian	DNYS	R	25	3
Cruz, Nelson	DNYS	R	19	3
Martinez, Victor	DNYS	R	12	2
Zobrist, Ben	DNYS	R	10	2
Hairston, Jerry	DNYS	R	26	2
Jones, Adam	DNYS	R	25	2
Reimold, Nolan	DNYS	R	28	2
Bay, Jason	DNYS	R	20	2
DeRosa, Mark	DNYS	R	20	2
Sheffield, Gary	DNYS	R	13	2
Hill, Aaron	DNYS	R	41	2
Bautista, Jose	DNYS	R	13	2
Encarnacion, Edwin	DNYS	R	20	2
Ruiz, Randy	DNYS	R	9	2
Swisher, Nick	DNYS	R	81	1
Aybar, Willy	DNYS	R	7	1
Hernandez, Anderson	DNYS	R	3	1
Napoli, Mike	DNYS	R	9	1
Guerrero, Vladimir	DNYS	R	4	1
Wigginton, Ty	DNYS	R	19	1
Pedroia, Dustin	DNYS	R	35	1
Lowell, Mike	DNYS	R	26	1
Dye, Jermaine	DNYS	R	11	1
Garko, Ryan	DNYS	R	12	1
Cuddyer, Michael	DNYS	R	16	1
Santos, Omir	DNYS	R	6	1
Suzuki, Kurt	DNYS	R	22	1
Ellis, Mark	DNYS	R	21	1
Gutierrez, Franklin	DNYS	R	13	1
Kapler, Gabe	DNYS	R	19	1
Young, Michael	DNYS	R	25	1
Rios, Alexis	DNYS	R	25	1
Wells, Vernon	DNYS	R	40	1
McDonald, John	DNYS	R	4	1
Werth, Jayson	DNYS	R	13	1
Ruiz, Carlos	DNYS	R	8	1
Mayberry, John	DNYS	R	8	1
Cedeno, Ronny	DNYS	R	9	1
Thames, Marcus	DNYS	R	12	1

Now, let's look at all RHB who homered in Yankee road games.

player	split	bat	ab	hr
Rodriguez, Alex	road	R	217	12
Swisher, Nick	road	R	81	8
Teixeira, Mark	road	R	86	5
Jeter, Derek	road	R	323	5
Youkilis, Kevin	road	R	32	4
Lowell, Mike	road	R	33	3
Longoria, Evan	road	R	27	3
Cabrera, Melky	road	R	70	2
Ross, Cody	road	R	10	2
Burrell, Pat	road	R	28	2
Izturis, Cesar	road	R	12	1
Navarro, Dioner	road	R	6	1
Molina, Jose	road	R	80	1
Napoli, Mike	road	R	13	1
Wood, Brandon	road	R	6	1
Francoeur, Jeff	road	R	12	1
Cervelli, Francisco	road	R	46	1
Jones, Adam	road	R	31	1
Mora, Melvin	road	R	31	1
Montanez, Luis	road	R	6	1
Reimold, Nolan	road	R	11	1
Bay, Jason	road	R	31	1
Green, Nick	road	R	24	1
Gonzalez, Alex	road	R	12	1
Dye, Jermaine	road	R	14	1
Quentin, Carlos	road	R	15	1
Ordonez, Magglio	road	R	9	1
Ramirez, Hanley	road	R	10	1
Uggla, Dan	road	R	10	1
Buck, John	road	R	4	1
Cuddyer, Michael	road	R	11	1
Sheffield, Gary	road	R	8	1
Suzuki, Kurt	road	R	11	1
Everidge, Tommy	road	R	8	1
Johjima, Kenji	road	R	11	1
Wilson, Josh	road	R	23	1
Upton, B.J.	road	R	33	1
Bartlett, Jason	road	R	24	1
Kinsler, Ian	road	R	12	1
Cruz, Nelson	road	R	8	1
Scutaro, Marco	road	R	36	1
Hill, Aaron	road	R	39	1
Rios, Alexis	road	R	17	1
Ruiz, Randy	road	R	9	1

As you can see, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez are a big part of the discrepancy for DNYS's HR factors for RHB.

In fact, if we remove them from both lists, the HR park factor for RHB drops from 1.33 to 1.15.

Split	AB	HR	HR/AB
RHB(DNYS)	1558	105	0.07
RHB(road)	1540	80	0.05
Ratio			1.30
RHB(DNYS) - Jeter/A-Rod	1020	74	0.07
RHB(road) - Jeter/A-Rod	1000	63	0.06
Ratio			1.15

Let's look at the same thing with LHB. Switch-hitters who batted lefty will be considered LHB here.

player	split	bat	ab	hr
Teixeira, Mark	DNYS	L	217	20
Damon, Johnny	DNYS	L	272	17
Cano, Robinson	DNYS	L	314	14
Matsui, Hideki	DNYS	L	253	13
Posada, Jorge	DNYS	L	122	9
Swisher, Nick	DNYS	L	145	7
Cabrera, Melky	DNYS	L	168	6
Markakis, Nick	DNYS	L	39	3
Morneau, Justin	DNYS	L	16	3
Lind, Adam	DNYS	L	35	3
Hinske, Eric	DNYS	L	36	2
Roberts, Brian	DNYS	L	23	2
Martinez, Victor	DNYS	L	29	2
Sizemore, Grady	DNYS	L	16	2
Choo, Shin-Soo	DNYS	L	13	2
Mauer, Joe	DNYS	L	16	2
Pena, Carlos	DNYS	L	19	2
Snider, Travis	DNYS	L	9	2
Ibanez, Raul	DNYS	L	13	2
Morales, Kendry	DNYS	L	10	1
Gardner, Brett	DNYS	L	106	1
Pena, Ramiro	DNYS	L	48	1
Kotchman, Casey	DNYS	L	11	1
Ortiz, David	DNYS	L	29	1
Cabrera, Asdrubal	DNYS	L	8	1
Granderson, Curtis	DNYS	L	11	1
Teahen, Mark	DNYS	L	9	1
Span, Denard	DNYS	L	16	1
Branyan, Russell	DNYS	L	11	1
Griffey, Ken	DNYS	L	8	1
Crawford, Carl	DNYS	L	34	1
Davis, Chris	DNYS	L	24	1
Murphy, David	DNYS	L	19	1
Overbay, Lyle	DNYS	L	31	1
Hafner, Travis	DNYS	L	14	1
Rollins, Jimmy	DNYS	L	5	1
Dunn, Adam	DNYS	L	9	1
Thomas, Clete	DNYS	L	6	1

player	split	bat	ab	hr
Matsui, Hideki	road	L	203	15
Swisher, Nick	road	L	191	13
Cano, Robinson	road	L	323	11
Teixeira, Mark	road	L	215	10
Posada, Jorge	road	L	137	8
Damon, Johnny	road	L	278	7
Hinske, Eric	road	L	48	5
Ortiz, David	road	L	30	3
Morales, Kendry	road	L	14	2
Cabrera, Melky	road	L	160	2
Gardner, Brett	road	L	142	2
McCann, Brian	road	L	12	2
Markakis, Nick	road	L	34	2
Huff, Aubrey	road	L	21	2
Scott, Luke	road	L	27	2
Varitek, Jason	road	L	19	2
Pena, Carlos	road	L	24	2
Davis, Chris	road	L	11	2
Figgins, Chone	road	L	15	1
Aybar, Erick	road	L	15	1
Pie, Felix	road	L	18	1
Ellsbury, Jacoby	road	L	27	1
Martinez, Victor	road	L	10	1
Thome, Jim	road	L	17	1
Sizemore, Grady	road	L	9	1
Choo, Shin-Soo	road	L	10	1
Granderson, Curtis	road	L	11	1
Mauer, Joe	road	L	13	1
Kubel, Jason	road	L	7	1
Cust, Jack	road	L	5	1
Suzuki, Ichiro	road	L	30	1
Griffey, Ken	road	L	16	1
Miranda, Juan	road	L	4	1
Lind, Adam	road	L	27	1

In this case, Johnny Damon looks like the primarily culprit in the apparent boost that DNYS gives LHB. If we remove Damon from the equation, the HR factor for LHB drops from 1.18 to 1.09.

Split	AB	HR	HR/AB
LHB(DNYS)	2201	132	0.06
LHB(road)	2123	108	0.05
Ratio			1.18
LHB(DNYS) - Damon	1929	115	0.06
LHB(road) - Damon	1845	101	0.05
Ratio			1.09

Moving away from the component park factors and looking at the big picture, a basic comparison of runs scored/allowed home and away gives us the misleading impression that DNYS played neutrally, or even as a slight pitcher's park. However, in terms of the context-neutral batting events, as viewed by either wOBA or in batting runs per out, we can see that it did boost offense, even if it didn't directly translate to runs in 2009. By how much? About 1.5% according to wOBA, and roughly 3.4% according to BR/Out.

Many times, once a narrative has started, it takes hold. I have a feeling that regardless of how DNYS plays going forward, we're going to keep reading and hearing about it being a bandbox, regardless of how it actually plays from this point on.

On a completely un-related note, I see that Baseball Prospectus has once again updated their projected standings for 2010. I also see that whatever they did is wrong, again.

If you look at how many runs they're projecting each team to score compared to the triple slash stats they list (AVG/OBP/SLG), the numbers make no sense. You can get a rough approximation of runs from OBP and SLG using the Hardball Times's GPA (gross production average) stat. This won't account for SB/CS, or non-SB baserunning, but those shouldn't have an impact of more than 20-30 runs either way.

First, I converted OBP and SLG to GPA using (1.8 x OBP + SLG)/4

Then I converted that to runs using the formula PA*1.356*(GPA^1.77), where PA = 4100 divided by (1 - team OBP). I get an average shortfall of 65 runs scored, with Houston the closest at 44, and the Yankees the furthest away at 100.

Team: PECOTA RS, GPA RS, Diff
Houston Astros: 691, 735, 44
San Francisco Giants: 681, 726, 45
Milwaukee Brewers: 743, 791, 48
San Diego Padres: 663, 711, 48
Pittsburgh Pirates: 671, 720, 49
Chicago White Sox: 732, 782, 50
Los Angeles Angels: 754, 808, 54
Toronto Blue Jays: 702, 756, 54
Cincinnati Reds: 691, 746, 55
Washington Nationals: 674, 730, 56
Texas Rangers: 816, 873, 57
Kansas City Royals: 714, 774, 60
Arizona Diamondbacks: 740, 802, 62
St. Louis Cardinals: 722, 784, 62
Los Angeles Dodgers: 688, 752, 64
New York Mets: 732, 797, 65
Oakland Athletics: 716, 781, 65
Philadelphia Phillies: 764, 830, 66
Detroit Tigers: 732, 800, 68
Florida Marlins: 733, 801, 68
Chicago Cubs: 712, 780, 68
Baltimore Orioles: 781, 850, 69
Tampa Bay Rays: 800, 870, 70
Seattle Mariners: 701, 772, 71
Cleveland Indians: 740, 822, 82
Minnesota Twins: 778, 860, 82
Atlanta Braves: 730, 814, 84
Boston Red Sox: 808, 893, 85
Colorado Rockies: 769, 854, 85
New York Yankees: 821, 921, 100

PECOTA RS are just the projected runs scored from the PECOTA standings page. GPA RS are the projected runs scored converting the OBP/SLG from the PECOTA standings page to runs using GPA. Diff is just GPA RS - PECOTA RS.

So again, I'll suggest to ignore these until they're fixed, because they're broken again.

RLYW Fantasy Baseball

2010-02-14T14:08:00.006-05:00

I decided to start a RLYW Fantasy Baseball League through Yahoo open to any readers here. I figured there may be a few followers that would be interested. Hopefully this will be an annual thing. The league winner will even get a whole thread dedicated to announcing his awesomeness.

Here's how it works. Just go to Yahoo's fantasy sports page and click on the "sign up" button for Fantasy Baseball '10.
You'll want to click on the option to join a private league. The ID is 163829 and the password is CAIRO.

The league's max capacity is 20 and it is a head-to-head league, meaning you will face off against another opponent each week. I'm not sure how many people will want to join, so if you're interested make sure to join soon to avoid getting locked out. There will be a live draft which is set for Saturday, March 27th at 4:15pm EDT. If you can't make the draft, you can always pre-rank players and the autodraft will select according to your rankings.

Scores are determined by the total number of points you rack up in certain statistical categories each week. Although I'd love to use more advanced statistics for scoring, I'm limited to what Yahoo offers. If you have any questions about the league, please feel free to ask in the comments section.

Again, all are welcome - unless you happened upon this site looking for rare Phil Hughes pictures.

Yankee catching prospect Jesus Montero gets first taste at corner

2010-02-12T15:16:00.004-05:00

TAMPA - After several rounds of batting practice and catching work, Jesus Montero picked up a different kind of glove Thursday - the Yankees' top prospect headed over to first base.

Montero, a catcher who is likely to start at Triple-A Scranton this season, took grounders and throws at first, working with infield instructor Jody Reed.

Daily News

'This doesn't really mean anything since all AAA Yankees catchers do this, but already I've seen people theorize that the Yankees mean to move him off of catcher now.

From Chad Jennings back on December 21st:

Montero will get some time at first base, at least during drills. It’s something all catchers in the Yankees system do. I’ve seen Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and Kevin Cash take ground balls at third base. P.J. Pilittere has gotten a bit of playing time at first.
“He’ll get that as a matter of course,” Newman said. “But all of our guys do. It won’t be anything special for him.”

Montero may end up moving to 1B, but not yet, especially not before they can see if his improvements in AA will last.

Zone Rating for Shortstops ages 36+

2010-02-12T08:13:00.004-05:00

Following up on the previous post, I figured I'd post a list of shortstops and their zone rating for ages 36 through the end of their careers. We only have zone rating data going back to 1987, so this list is somewhat limited. If you're unfamiliar with zone rating, the following two articles by Chris Dial at Baseball Think Factory are required reading IMO.

What is Zone Rating? and Dr. StrangeGlove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Zone Rating

These are the career totals for everyone who played at least an inning at shortstop from age 36 on since 1987. Standard caveats about defensive metrics apply, etc.,

Last,First	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	Diff	RS
Smith, Ozzie	745	592	6360.3	1224	2213	72	453	2069	2345	.882	102	73
Vizquel, Omar	767	730	6443.7	1091	2115	41	473	2005	2295	.874	84	64
Bordick, Mike	244	237	2079.3	415	698	11	173	668	769	.869	19	14
Ripken Jr., Cal	161	157	1385.7	231	466	14	109	444	510	.871	14	10
Counsell, Craig	166	137	1269.3	212	494	13	122	447	526	.850	11	7
Vizcaino, Jose	107	76	677.7	98	231	11	34	226	260	.869	8	7
McLemore, Mark	74	64	568.0	87	175	6	46	169	193	.876	7	5
Sanchez, Rey	102	89	799.7	146	254	7	61	242	280	.864	6	5
Gagne, Greg	143	138	1223.0	174	358	16	55	389	451	.863	6	4
Aurilia, Rich	12	11	94.0	14	35	2	6	33	37	.892	2	2
Benjamin, Mike	15	11	88.7	18	35	1	5	36	40	.900	2	2
Clayton, Royce	198	177	1563.0	244	519	26	84	503	603	.834	4	2
Hernandez, Jose	12	6	75.0	14	30	0	7	29	31	.935	4	2
Wilson, Jack	105	105	917.3	152	317	12	81	290	351	.826	4	2
Huson, Jeff	17	10	111.3	23	33	1	7	37	41	.902	2	1
McDonald, John	31	19	198.3	38	66	1	22	60	71	.845	2	1
Mordecai, Mike	18	11	116.0	19	34	1	11	29	34	.853	0	1
Alicea, Luis	1	0	0.3	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Ausmus, Brad	1	0	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	0	.000	0	0
Barnes, Skeeter	2	0	2.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Bell, Jay	14	7	60.0	12	23	1	6	18	20	.900	2	0
Blum, Geoff	1	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Cabrera, Jolbert	9	7	60.3	7	14	0	5	14	16	.875	1	0
DeCinces, Doug	1	0	2.7	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Fletcher, Scott	3	0	6.0	0	1	0	0	2	2	1.000	0	0
Gaetti, Gary	1	0	2.0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Grebeck, Craig	31	17	167.7	26	51	0	8	53	61	.869	1	0
Grudzielanek, Mark	7	1	15.7	1	3	0	0	3	3	1.000	0	0
Magadan, Dave	3	0	4.0	0	2	0	1	1	1	1.000	0	0
McGwire, Mark	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Mora, Melvin	1	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Morrison, Jim	1	0	4.0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0
Phillips, Tony	1	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0
Royster, Jerry	2	0	4.0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0
Salazar, Luis	12	8	81.3	14	27	0	5	26	29	.897	1	0
Schmidt, Mike	3	0	4.7	0	2	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0
Shumpert, Terry	4	2	17.3	2	7	0	0	7	8	.875	0	0
Sveum, Dale	4	1	13.0	1	5	0	1	4	4	1.000	0	0
Valentin, Jose	1	0	2.0	0	2	0	1	2	2	1.000	0	0
Young, Eric	8	2	26.0	2	4	1	1	4	5	.800	0	0
Cirillo, Jeff	3	2	19.0	4	3	0	2	2	4	.500	-1	-1
Concepcion, Dave	16	0	104.7	13	36	3	12	33	38	.868	-1	-1
Gallego, Mike	11	3	43.0	8	21	0	4	14	15	.933	0	-1
Garner, Phil	2	0	9.0	1	6	1	0	2	3	.667	-1	-1
Gonzales, Rene	10	4	47.0	12	21	1	5	14	17	.824	-1	-1
Sojo, Luis	5	4	40.0	7	10	0	2	11	14	.786	-1	-1
Almon, Bill	5	0	12.0	3	3	1	1	2	4	.500	-2	-2
Brookens, Tom	10	0	29.7	7	11	0	3	7	10	.700	-2	-2
Castro, Juan	85	67	578.7	93	179	6	28	166	205	.810	-1	-2
Dunston, Shawon	16	8	65.0	5	19	1	5	18	22	.818	-1	-2
Gomez, Chris	23	19	165.3	29	65	3	16	60	75	.800	-3	-2
Gonzalez, Alex	112	110	948.3	148	270	7	59	250	308	.812	-1	-2
Williams, Matt	2	2	14.0	3	5	0	1	3	5	.600	-2	-2
Belliard, Rafael	60	21	271.7	43	77	2	19	82	99	.828	-3	-3
Griffin, Alfredo	20	18	164.0	34	38	3	9	49	60	.817	-3	-3
Martinez, Ramon	10	9	81.3	12	26	4	6	23	33	.697	-4	-3
Guillen, Ozzie	42	17	181.0	26	65	5	12	52	66	.788	-4	-4
Loretta, Mark	77	62	522.7	83	175	8	32	161	201	.801	-6	-4
Speier, Chris	42	0	195.0	35	77	3	16	59	71	.831	-4	-4
Trillo, Manny	14	0	42.3	9	11	1	1	9	14	.643	-5	-5
Reboulet, Jeff	66	44	411.0	89	114	11	36	122	152	.803	-6	-6
Easley, Damion	65	51	464.3	73	149	6	24	149	188	.793	-8	-7
Elster, Kevin	55	52	456.0	60	133	11	25	133	168	.792	-8	-7
Trammell, Alan	166	152	1336.7	255	446	19	92	415	492	.843	-7	-7
Washington, Ron	54	0	431.3	82	142	16	25	128	159	.805	-9	-7
Reynolds, Craig	48	0	295.3	57	98	6	19	84	108	.778	-9	-8
Weiss, Walt	171	137	1220.0	192	402	27	79	365	450	.811	-13	-11
Larkin, Barry	426	412	3431.3	585	1102	45	224	1085	1310	.828	-17	-14

GP: Games played
GS: Games started
Innings: Defensive innings at position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double plays
PM: Plays made (fieldable chances converted into outs)
CH: Fieldable chances
ZR: Zone rating (PM divided by CH)
Diff: Difference between PM and PM made by an average defender
RS: Runs saved compared to average

One can only imagine how good Ozzie Smith was in his prime if he was 73 runs above average from ages 36-41. Zone rating covers Smith's career from age 33 on, and he put up a total of 134 runs saved compared to average in 10 seasons, although the final three were part-time. That's roughly equivalent to being 20 runs better than average over a full season on a rate basis, over a time frame that began 10 years removed from the typical middle infielder's defensive peak.

I'd expected to see more players with bigger negative numbers, but I guess this is indicative that teams are pretty smart about moving guys off shortstop when they can no longer hack it defensively. Or it could be that that none of these guys were good enough hitters past age 36 to justify playing below average defense. We're also dealing with a subset of all players since zone rating has only been around for 22 years, which constricts what we may be seeing.

I don't see the Captain matching the Wizard's defensive coda, although my hatred of Jeter may be coloring my expectations. I've got him projected around -4 for 2010, so if he were to play through 40 and follow a typical aging pattern he'd wind up in the -30 to -35 range in total over the next five seasons, bottoming out at around -8 to -10. The good news is CAIRO thinks that even at age 40, Jeter should still be 17 runs above a replacement level shortstop offensively, so he shouldn't be harming the Yankees chances to win on the field too badly, although his salary and the opportunity cost of it may impact how they can fill out the rest of the roster in a way that could.

What Becomes Of 35 Year Old Shortstops?

2010-02-11T10:35:00.008-05:00

With all the recent talk about Derek Jeter's future with the Yankees, I thought it might be interesting to look at the history of 35 year old shortstops in baseball. While every player is unique and it shouldn't be assumed that they will follow the same patterns as their predecessors, it may at least give us some idea of the different paths Jeter's future could follow.

So first, I ran a query for every player who played most of his innings at shortstop at age 35. I'm not excluding anyone, so even players with one PA will get included. First, I'll mention that there have been 50211 unique player seasons, excluding pitchers at all positions, including pinch-hitting, pinch-running and DHing. Of those 50211 seasons, 321 have been a player aged 35 or older who have played most of their innings at SS. Of those, 107 were for a player who was exactly 35 (using season minus birth year to calculate age).

While I don't think data from the late 1800s - early 1900s tells us anything useful in regards to modern day player aging, I kept those players in on the hope that I may stumble upon another Birdie Cree.

Here's the full list of those 107 players.

player	year	tm	lg	age	pos	pa	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	wOBA+	BRAA
Honus Wagner	1909	PIT	NL	35	SS	564	.339/.420/.489	.401	142	54
Joe Cronin	1941	BOS	AL	35	SS	601	.311/.406/.508	.398	123	36
Derek Jeter	2009	NYA	AL	35	SS	712	.334/.406/.465	.386	115	36
Eddie Joost	1951	PHA	AL	35	SS	665	.289/.409/.461	.387	120	35
George Davis	1905	CHA	AL	35	SS	614	.278/.353/.340	.318	116	27
Candy Nelson	1884	NY4	AA	35	SS	515	.255/.375/.310	.325	123	27
Dave Bancroft	1926	BSN	NL	35	SS	519	.311/.399/.384	.358	112	23
Alan Trammell	1993	DET	AL	35	SS	443	.329/.388/.496	.385	117	23
Bobby Wallace	1908	SLA	AL	35	SS	541	.253/.327/.324	.298	111	14
Miguel Tejada	2009	HOU	NL	35	SS	673	.313/.340/.455	.344	106	12
Barry Larkin	1999	CIN	NL	35	SS	682	.293/.390/.420	.363	108	12
Pee Wee Reese	1953	BRO	NL	35	SS	610	.271/.374/.420	.355	108	12
Bill Dahlen	1905	NY1	NL	35	SS	594	.242/.337/.337	.309	107	9
Tony Lazzeri	1938	CHN	NL	35	SS	142	.267/.380/.433	.363	116	6
Walt Weiss	1998	ATL	NL	35	SS	412	.280/.386/.343	.339	104	5
Omar Vizquel	2002	CLE	AL	35	SS	656	.275/.341/.418	.333	101	5
Jack Glasscock	1892	SLN	NL	35	SS	617	.267/.327/.348	.305	105	4
Luke Appling	1942	CHA	AL	35	SS	609	.262/.342/.341	.312	101	4
Ozzie Smith	1989	SLN	NL	35	SS	653	.273/.335/.361	.313	104	4
Luis Aparicio	1969	CHA	AL	35	SS	671	.280/.352/.362	.323	105	4
Joe Tinker	1915	CHF	FL	35	SS	80	.269/.388/.328	.336	114	4
Mike Bordick	2000	BAL/NYN	AL	35	SS	640	.285/.341/.443	.341	99	3
Art Fletcher	1920	NY1/PHI	NL	35	SS	575	.284/.315/.396	.312	104	3
Jimmy Johnston	1924	BRO	NL	35	SS	343	.298/.356/.365	.326	101	3
Nomar Garciaparra	2008	LAN	NL	35	SS	181	.264/.326/.466	.340	104	3
Phil Rizzuto	1951	NYA	AL	35	SS	603	.274/.350/.346	.318	99	1
Greg Gagne	1996	LAN	NL	35	SS	483	.255/.333/.364	.314	97	1
Ed Caskin	1886	NY1	NL	35	SS	4	.500/.500/.500	.450	157	1
John Morrill	1890	BSP	PL	35	SS	9	.143/.333/.143	.260	80	-1
Lou Boudreau	1952	BOS	AL	35	SS	2	.000/.000/.000	.000	0	-1
Fred Pfeffer	1895	LS3	NL	35	SS	50	.289/.360/.311	.313	93	-1
Chick Keating	1926	PHI	NL	35	SS	2	.000/.000/.000	.000	0	-1
Ernie Johnson	1923	CHA/NYA	AL	35	SS	96	.297/.333/.385	.319	97	-1
John Valentin	2002	NYN	NL	35	SS	242	.240/.339/.356	.316	97	-1
Dave Altizer	1911	CIN	NL	35	SS	85	.227/.318/.307	.289	93	-1
Lou Merloni	2006	CLE	AL	35	SS	21	.211/.286/.263	.256	76	-2
Nolen Richardson	1938	CIN	NL	35	SS	103	.290/.311/.330	.288	92	-2
Ivan DeJesus	1988	DET	AL	35	SS	18	.176/.222/.176	.190	60	-2
Roger Peckinpaugh	1926	WS1	AL	35	SS	175	.238/.360/.299	.313	95	-2
Bill Almon	1987	PIT/NYN	NL	35	SS	83	.230/.313/.284	.279	86	-3
Marty Marion	1952	SLA	AL	35	SS	206	.247/.320/.339	.299	96	-3
Paul Popovich	1975	PIT	NL	35	SS	44	.200/.273/.225	.238	76	-3
Tim Foli	1985	PIT	NL	35	SS	41	.189/.268/.189	.224	73	-3
Billy Klaus	1963	PHI	NL	35	SS	19	.056/.105/.056	.085	29	-4
Dickey Pearce	1871	NY2	NA	35	SS	167	.270/.287/.301	.265	87	-4
Hank Schreiber	1926	CHN	NL	35	SS	18	.056/.056/.111	.069	21	-4
Frankie Crosetti	1945	NYA	AL	35	SS	510	.238/.341/.293	.299	99	-4
Alvin Dark	1957	SLN	NL	35	SS	620	.290/.326/.381	.313	98	-5
Dal Maxvill	1974	PIT/OAK	NL	35	SS	84	.189/.286/.189	.236	77	-5
Eddie Bressoud	1967	SLN	NL	35	SS	76	.134/.237/.224	.219	73	-5
Mick Kelleher	1982	DET/CAL	AL	35	SS	56	.160/.250/.180	.212	66	-5
Alan Strange	1941	SLA	AL	35	SS	127	.232/.323/.268	.280	86	-5
John McDonald	2009	TOR	AL	35	SS	155	.258/.271/.384	.283	85	-6
Ed McKean	1899	SLN	NL	35	SS	297	.260/.310/.339	.292	93	-7
Frank Shugart	1901	CHA	AL	35	SS	445	.251/.301/.345	.288	93	-7
Ossie Bluege	1935	WS1	AL	35	SS	358	.263/.341/.325	.307	92	-7
Leo Durocher	1940	BRO	NL	35	SS	172	.231/.285/.319	.271	87	-7
Rabbit Maranville	1926	BRO	NL	35	SS	260	.235/.312/.312	.286	89	-7
Chris Speier	1985	CHN	NL	35	SS	237	.243/.295/.349	.286	93	-7
Billy Rogell	1939	DET	AL	35	SS	200	.230/.330/.333	.304	90	-7
Dickie Thon	1993	ML4	AL	35	SS	272	.269/.324/.331	.295	90	-8
Gil English	1944	BRO	NL	35	SS	85	.152/.212/.228	.202	66	-8
Jose Valentin	2004	CHA	AL	35	SS	498	.216/.287/.473	.322	95	-8
Jose Vizcaino	2003	HOU	NL	35	SS	199	.249/.281/.365	.283	86	-9
Cal Ripken	1995	BAL	AL	35	SS	612	.262/.324/.422	.324	96	-9
Wayne Tolleson	1990	NYA	AL	35	SS	81	.149/.210/.189	.188	59	-9
Alvaro Espinoza	1997	SEA	AL	35	SS	75	.181/.213/.194	.190	56	-9
Craig Reynolds	1987	HOU	NL	35	SS	412	.254/.303/.348	.289	89	-10
Alfredo Griffin	1992	TOR	AL	35	SS	161	.233/.273/.280	.251	79	-10
Roy Hughes	1946	PHI	NL	35	SS	296	.236/.287/.283	.261	85	-11
Germany Smith	1898	SLN	NL	35	SS	182	.159/.275/.204	.236	78	-11
Sparky Adams	1929	PIT	NL	35	SS	212	.260/.316/.311	.287	83	-11
Alex Grammas	1961	SLN	NL	35	SS	191	.212/.293/.282	.266	83	-11
Don Kessinger	1977	SLN/CHA	NL	35	SS	282	.237/.309/.281	.273	85	-12
Billy Jurges	1943	NY1	NL	35	SS	538	.229/.310/.279	.276	91	-13
Fred Stanley	1982	OAK	AL	35	SS	258	.193/.287/.250	.255	79	-13
Orlando Cabrera	2009	MIN/OAK	AL	35	SS	702	.284/.316/.389	.309	92	-14
Ed Holly	1914	PTF	FL	35	SS	367	.246/.281/.294	.260	85	-14
Rabbit Warstler	1938	BSN	NL	35	SS	515	.231/.303/.270	.268	85	-14
Ozzie Guillen	1999	ATL	NL	35	SS	250	.241/.284/.323	.271	80	-15
Royce Clayton	2005	ARI	NL	35	SS	563	.270/.320/.351	.301	92	-15
Joe Boley	1931	PHA	AL	35	SS	241	.228/.282/.295	.262	80	-15
Leo Cardenas	1973	CLE	AL	35	SS	208	.215/.264/.236	.233	74	-16
Mark Christman	1948	WS1	AL	35	SS	435	.259/.303/.318	.281	86	-16
Dick Groat	1965	SLN	NL	35	SS	651	.254/.316/.315	.288	95	-16
Freddie Patek	1979	KCA	AL	35	SS	328	.252/.293/.317	.274	84	-16
Garry Templeton	1991	SDN/NYN	NL	35	SS	289	.221/.246/.304	.242	79	-16
Bert Campaneris	1977	TEX	AL	35	SS	608	.254/.314/.341	.295	91	-16
Bill Russell	1983	LAN	NL	35	SS	490	.246/.302/.286	.271	87	-16
Wally Gerber	1926	SLA	AL	35	SS	454	.270/.339/.290	.294	89	-17
Monte Cross	1904	PHA	AL	35	SS	556	.189/.266/.256	.243	89	-18
Mark Belanger	1979	BAL	AL	35	SS	231	.167/.273/.217	.237	72	-18
George Wright	1882	PRO	NL	35	SS	189	.162/.180/.189	.167	61	-18
Davy Force	1884	BFN	NL	35	SS	430	.206/.256/.253	.234	84	-18
Larry Bowa	1980	PHI	NL	35	SS	570	.267/.300/.322	.279	90	-18
Rafael Belliard	1996	ATL	NL	35	SS	145	.169/.179/.218	.175	54	-19
Bob Lillis	1965	HOU	NL	35	SS	435	.221/.267/.255	.241	80	-20
Tommy Corcoran	1904	CIN	NL	35	SS	599	.230/.257/.301	.248	88	-23
Dave Concepcion	1983	CIN	NL	35	SS	591	.233/.303/.280	.270	87	-23
Gene Michael	1973	NYA	AL	35	SS	445	.225/.270/.278	.249	79	-24
Ivy Olson	1920	BRO	NL	35	SS	658	.254/.278/.314	.264	87	-25
Roy McMillan	1964	ML1/NYN	NL	35	SS	412	.214/.248/.253	.228	76	-26
Mickey Doolan	1915	BLF/CHF	FL	35	SS	521	.200/.248/.273	.236	79	-28
George McBride	1915	WS1	AL	35	SS	506	.204/.251/.252	.231	78	-29
Herman Long	1901	BSN	NL	35	SS	544	.216/.254/.284	.241	81	-31
Bones Ely	1898	PIT	NL	35	SS	543	.212/.247/.270	.233	77	-32
Skeeter Webb	1944	CHA	AL	35	SS	534	.211/.242/.271	.230	76	-34

Since cross-era comparison is difficult, I chose to compare players to their league averages without position-adjusting. Variations in position-adjustments and replacement level in different seasons aren't consistent, but performance relative to league average is a slightly more consistent basis for comparison, even though the pool of available talent hasn't been the same throughout the years.

wOBA is the player's weighted on-base average with a park-adjustment. wOBA+ is simply player wOBA divided by the league wOBA times 100 for the season in question. So a wOBA+ of 100 is average, a wOBA+ greater than 100 is better than average. This is similar to OPS+, but I think it's better since it doesn't weigh OBP and SLG equally. BRAA are batting runs above average (not position-adjusted), calculated as (player wOBA minus league wOBA, divided by 1.15 times plate appearances). Because we don't have accurate CS numbers for the early period of baseball, this does not include SB.

What Derek Jeter did in 2009 was pretty impressive. If we add in SB he picks up another five runs and moves ahead of Joe Cronin in value. What's interesting to me is how few 35 year old shortstops were able to even be league average. Amongst guys who got at least 500 PAs, there are only 20 who were able to hit that mark. Keep in mind that this table is comparing shortstops to league average at all positions. Shortstops have typically been seven or eight runs below average offensively over a full season, and if we want to put this in terms of replacement level you can add another 20 or so runs over a full season. Unfortunately in Jeter's case, I'd project him to give away the positional adjustment defensively over the next few years if he follows the typical aging pattern.

Looking back is nice, but the real purpose for this post is to look at what has happened to shortstops as they go past age 35.

player	year	tm	lg	age	pos	pa	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	wOBA+	BRAA
Luke Appling	1943	CHA	AL	36	SS	676	.328/.419/.407	.376	126	45
Honus Wagner	1910	PIT	NL	36	SS	620	.320/.390/.432	.367	122	30
Candy Nelson	1885	NY4	AA	36	SS	484	.255/.353/.310	.310	114	27
Pee Wee Reese	1954	BRO	NL	36	SS	653	.309/.404/.455	.380	116	26
Eddie Joost	1952	PHA	AL	36	SS	667	.244/.388/.415	.363	117	24
George Davis	1906	CHA	AL	36	SS	529	.277/.338/.355	.314	113	18
Luis Aparicio	1970	CHA	AL	36	SS	611	.313/.372/.404	.346	111	18
Barry Larkin	2000	CIN	NL	36	SS	445	.313/.389/.487	.383	113	16
Jack Glasscock	1893	SLN/PIT	NL	36	SS	539	.320/.384/.412	.357	109	15
Bill Dahlen	1906	NY1	NL	36	SS	557	.240/.357/.297	.311	111	14
Ernie Johnson	1924	NYA	AL	36	2B	131	.353/.412/.597	.429	128	11
Monte Cross	1905	PHA	AL	36	SS	277	.266/.332/.349	.309	113	8
Joe Cronin	1942	BOS	AL	36	3B	94	.304/.415/.494	.399	130	7
Tony Lazzeri	1939	BRO/NY1	NL	36	3B	102	.289/.422/.458	.394	123	6
Phil Rizzuto	1952	NYA	AL	36	SS	650	.254/.337/.341	.309	100	5
Bobby Wallace	1909	SLA	AL	36	SS	445	.238/.310/.278	.275	100	4
Chris Speier	1986	CHN	NL	36	3B	172	.284/.349/.452	.349	112	4
Frankie Crosetti	1946	NYA	AL	36	SS	68	.288/.382/.339	.336	108	1
Cal Ripken	1996	BAL	AL	36	SS	707	.278/.341/.466	.349	100	1
Ed Holly	1915	PTF	FL	36	SS	48	.262/.354/.310	.311	105	1
Jimmy Johnston	1925	BRO	NL	36	3B	480	.297/.369/.355	.331	99	1
Alan Strange	1942	SLA	AL	36	3B	40	.270/.325/.324	.296	96	-1
Nolen Richardson	1939	CIN	NL	36	SS	3	.000/.000/.000	.000	0	-1
Roger Peckinpaugh	1927	CHA	AL	36	SS	239	.295/.360/.350	.324	98	-1
Dal Maxvill	1975	OAK	AL	36	SS	10	.200/.200/.200	.180	57	-1
Leo Durocher	1941	BRO	NL	36	SS	43	.286/.302/.310	.276	90	-1
Joe Tinker	1916	CHN	NL	36	SS	11	.100/.182/.100	.147	52	-1
Mickey Doolan	1916	CHN/NY1	NL	36	SS	131	.223/.282/.322	.271	96	-2
Rabbit Maranville	1927	SLN	NL	36	SS	31	.241/.290/.276	.261	81	-2
Marty Marion	1953	SLA	AL	36	3B	7	.000/.000/.000	.000	0	-2
Bill Russell	1984	LAN	NL	36	SS	289	.267/.329/.321	.297	97	-2
Ossie Bluege	1936	WS1	AL	36	2B	363	.288/.375/.342	.332	96	-2
Bill Almon	1988	PHI	NL	36	3B	29	.115/.207/.192	.191	64	-3
Mike Bordick	2001	BAL	AL	36	SS	255	.249/.314/.397	.312	94	-3
Larry Bowa	1981	PHI	NL	36	SS	387	.283/.331/.339	.303	99	-3
Craig Reynolds	1988	HOU	NL	36	SS	169	.255/.290/.317	.273	91	-3
Leo Cardenas	1974	TEX	AL	36	3B	94	.272/.287/.304	.266	86	-3
Nomar Garciaparra	2009	OAK	AL	36	DH	169	.281/.314/.388	.308	92	-3
Alvin Dark	1958	SLN/CHN	NL	36	3B	570	.295/.337/.364	.314	97	-4
Joe Boley	1932	PHA/CLE	AL	36	SS	39	.211/.231/.263	.221	66	-4
Freddie Patek	1980	CAL	AL	36	SS	291	.264/.302/.392	.303	94	-4
Gene Michael	1974	NYA	AL	36	2B	192	.260/.313/.311	.284	92	-4
Jose Valentin	2005	LAN	NL	36	3B	184	.170/.326/.265	.286	87	-6
Mark Christman	1949	WS1	AL	36	3B	121	.214/.273/.313	.263	80	-7
Rafael Belliard	1997	ATL	NL	36	SS	73	.211/.219/.296	.223	68	-7
Dave Bancroft	1927	BSN	NL	36	SS	419	.243/.322/.307	.290	90	-7
Ozzie Guillen	2000	TBA	AL	36	SS	113	.243/.283/.336	.276	80	-7
Omar Vizquel	2003	CLE	AL	36	SS	280	.244/.321/.336	.299	90	-7
Alex Grammas	1962	SLN/CHN	NL	36	SS	82	.205/.244/.244	.224	70	-7
Sparky Adams	1930	SLN	NL	36	3B	616	.314/.365/.409	.345	98	-7
Alan Trammell	1994	DET	AL	36	SS	309	.267/.307/.414	.314	92	-8
Billy Rogell	1940	CHN	NL	36	SS	61	.136/.164/.186	.159	51	-8
Bones Ely	1899	PIT	NL	36	SS	549	.278/.313/.352	.297	95	-8
Davy Force	1885	BFN	NL	36	2B	266	.225/.263/.257	.238	88	-8
Bob Lillis	1966	HOU	NL	36	2B	173	.232/.260/.268	.239	78	-9
Alfredo Griffin	1993	TOR	AL	36	SS	98	.211/.235/.242	.216	66	-10
Ozzie Smith	1990	SLN	NL	36	SS	585	.254/.330/.305	.293	94	-10
Jose Vizcaino	2004	HOU	NL	36	SS	380	.274/.311/.374	.302	91	-11
Dick Groat	1966	PHI	NL	36	SS	633	.260/.311/.320	.286	93	-11
Greg Gagne	1997	LAN	NL	36	SS	550	.251/.298/.354	.290	89	-12
Herman Long	1902	BSN	NL	36	SS	471	.230/.282/.269	.254	90	-12
Walt Weiss	1999	ATL	NL	36	SS	321	.226/.315/.323	.291	86	-13
Don Kessinger	1978	CHA	AL	36	SS	468	.255/.312/.309	.284	90	-14
Rabbit Warstler	1939	BSN	NL	36	SS	366	.243/.292/.292	.267	83	-14
Billy Jurges	1944	NY1	NL	36	3B	269	.211/.279/.240	.244	79	-15
Dave Concepcion	1984	CIN	NL	36	SS	592	.245/.307/.320	.284	92	-15
Dickey Pearce	1872	NY2	NA	36	SS	210	.194/.210/.223	.195	68	-15
George McBride	1916	WS1	AL	36	SS	494	.227/.271/.283	.252	86	-17
Royce Clayton	2006	WAS/CIN	NL	36	SS	495	.258/.307/.341	.290	87	-17
Fred Pfeffer	1896	NY1/CHN	NL	36	2B	401	.241/.292/.337	.281	86	-18
Roy McMillan	1965	NYN	NL	36	SS	558	.242/.280/.292	.259	86	-19
Tommy Corcoran	1905	CIN	NL	36	SS	629	.248/.277/.329	.268	93	-19
Mark Belanger	1980	BAL	AL	36	SS	280	.228/.261/.276	.243	75	-19
Bert Campaneris	1978	TEX	AL	36	SS	294	.186/.245/.238	.223	71	-24
Ivy Olson	1921	BRO	NL	36	SS	684	.267/.301/.345	.288	89	-25
Wally Gerber	1927	SLA	AL	36	SS	475	.224/.284/.295	.264	79	-30
Skeeter Webb	1945	DET	AL	36	SS	437	.199/.254/.238	.229	76	-31

Looking at the same set of players and what they did the following season, we get a list of 77 players. Four players drop from the list because their age 35 season was 2009 (Jeter, Miguel Tejada, John McDonald and Orlando Cabrera), but that's still a pretty big chunk of players who dropped out of the league. On this list, only ten players who got 500 PAs were able to hit at a league average level. Twenty of these players played more games at a position other than shortstop as well, which likely indicates a defensive decline.

player	year	tm	lg	age	pos	pa	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	wOBA+	BRAA
Honus Wagner	1911	PIT	NL	37	SS	546	.334/.423/.507	.408	132	43
Ozzie Smith	1991	SLN	NL	37	SS	635	.285/.380/.367	.342	112	20
Bobby Wallace	1910	SLA	AL	37	SS	558	.258/.324/.323	.296	106	13
Phil Rizzuto	1953	NYA	AL	37	SS	488	.271/.383/.351	.340	107	11
Billy Jurges	1945	NY1	NL	37	3B	200	.324/.405/.403	.367	118	9
Pee Wee Reese	1955	BRO	NL	37	SS	639	.282/.371/.403	.347	107	9
Joe Cronin	1943	BOS	AL	37	3B	88	.312/.398/.558	.409	137	8
Willie Keeler	1909	NYA	AL	37	OF	394	.264/.327/.319	.297	108	7
Jose Valentin	2006	NYN	NL	37	2B	427	.271/.330/.490	.349	105	7
Eddie Joost	1953	PHA	AL	37	SS	222	.249/.401/.384	.361	113	7
George Davis	1907	CHA	AL	37	SS	517	.238/.313/.288	.280	102	4
Chris Speier	1987	SFN	NL	37	2B	363	.249/.342/.394	.329	102	4
Alvin Dark	1959	CHN	NL	37	3B	538	.264/.342/.386	.325	102	3
Candy Nelson	1886	NY4	AA	37	SS	479	.225/.332/.252	.282	100	3
Omar Vizquel	2004	CLE	AL	37	SS	631	.291/.353/.388	.331	100	2
Barry Larkin	2001	CIN	NL	37	SS	185	.256/.373/.372	.341	103	0
Sparky Adams	1931	SLN	NL	37	3B	652	.293/.340/.390	.325	100	0
Frankie Crosetti	1947	NYA	AL	37	SS	1	.000/.000/.000	.000	0	0
Ossie Bluege	1937	WS1	AL	37	SS	141	.283/.355/.370	.328	96	-1
Bill Russell	1985	LAN	NL	37	SS	189	.260/.333/.308	.296	96	-1
Rafael Belliard	1998	ATL	NL	37	SS	20	.250/.250/.250	.225	69	-2
Dickey Pearce	1873	BR2	NA	37	SS	270	.275/.296/.305	.271	93	-2
Paul Richards	1945	DET	AL	37	C	254	.256/.315/.355	.300	99	-2
Leo Cardenas	1975	TEX	AL	37	3B	116	.235/.328/.284	.288	91	-3
Freddie Patek	1981	CAL	AL	37	2B	48	.234/.250/.298	.242	78	-3
Ernie Johnson	1925	NYA	AL	37	2B	178	.282/.315/.412	.317	93	-3
Alex Grammas	1963	CHN	NL	37	SS	27	.185/.185/.185	.167	56	-3
Jimmy Johnston	1926	BSN/NY1	NL	37	OF	142	.238/.324/.270	.281	88	-4
Bob Lillis	1967	HOU	NL	37	SS	83	.244/.253/.256	.230	77	-5
Alan Trammell	1995	DET	AL	37	SS	252	.269/.345/.350	.316	93	-5
Cal Ripken	1997	BAL	AL	37	3B	686	.270/.331/.402	.322	96	-5
Walt Weiss	2000	ATL	NL	37	SS	224	.260/.353/.313	.310	91	-6
Fred Pfeffer	1897	CHN	NL	37	2B	129	.228/.318/.246	.271	83	-7
George McBride	1917	WS1	AL	37	SS	155	.191/.265/.213	.229	79	-8
Jose Vizcaino	2005	HOU	NL	37	2B	204	.246/.299/.337	.284	87	-8
Monte Cross	1906	PHA	AL	37	SS	502	.200/.291/.272	.263	95	-8
Art Fletcher	1922	PHI	NL	37	SS	422	.280/.325/.409	.322	97	-8
Don Kessinger	1979	CHA	AL	37	SS	121	.200/.264/.282	.249	76	-8
Dick Groat	1967	PHI/SFN	NL	37	SS	106	.156/.236/.188	.205	68	-9
Mike Bordick	2002	BAL	AL	37	SS	407	.232/.302/.365	.296	90	-9
Roy McMillan	1966	NYN	NL	37	SS	243	.214/.284/.277	.259	84	-9
Craig Reynolds	1989	HOU	NL	37	2B	208	.201/.274/.254	.247	82	-9
Royce Clayton	2007	TOR/BOS	AL	37	SS	213	.246/.296/.333	.281	85	-10
Gene Michael	1975	DET	AL	37	SS	154	.214/.253/.290	.243	77	-10
Bill Dahlen	1907	NY1	NL	37	SS	519	.207/.291/.254	.257	93	-11
Jack Glasscock	1894	PIT	NL	37	SS	367	.280/.349/.361	.322	90	-11
Rabbit Warstler	1940	BSN/CHN	NL	37	2B	234	.222/.282/.264	.253	81	-11
Mark Belanger	1981	BAL	AL	37	SS	153	.165/.242/.237	.224	72	-11
Dave Concepcion	1985	CIN	NL	37	SS	617	.252/.314/.330	.292	95	-12
Rabbit Maranville	1928	SLN	NL	37	SS	403	.240/.310/.342	.293	90	-13
Skeeter Webb	1946	DET	AL	37	2B	178	.219/.258/.237	.229	74	-14
Bert Campaneris	1979	TEX/CAL	AL	37	SS	272	.230/.290/.278	.262	80	-14
Davy Force	1886	WS8	NL	37	SS	259	.182/.236/.211	.209	73	-16
Herman Long	1903	NYA/DET	AL	37	SS	332	.213/.244/.260	.228	80	-16
Larry Bowa	1982	CHN	NL	37	SS	540	.246/.302/.305	.276	90	-16
Dave Bancroft	1928	BRO	NL	37	SS	576	.247/.326/.303	.292	89	-17
Ivy Olson	1922	BRO	NL	37	2B	578	.272/.306/.347	.291	88	-21
Wally Gerber	1928	SLA/BOS	AL	37	SS	351	.217/.291/.245	.253	78	-21
Luis Aparicio	1971	BOS	AL	37	SS	532	.232/.284/.303	.265	87	-23
Tommy Corcoran	1906	CIN	NL	37	SS	450	.207/.242/.249	.224	80	-24
Bones Ely	1900	PIT	NL	37	SS	493	.244/.272/.282	.250	80	-27

Of those 36 year olds, 61 were still in the league in their age 37 season (Nomar Garciaparra drops as his age 36 season was 2009). Eight were able to hit at league average level with 500 or more PAs.

player	year	tm	lg	age	pos	pa	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	wOBA+	BRAA
Honus Wagner	1912	PIT	NL	38	SS	623	.324/.395/.496	.389	123	40
Ozzie Smith	1992	SLN	NL	38	SS	578	.295/.367/.342	.326	107	14
Luke Appling	1945	CHA	AL	38	SS	69	.368/.478/.526	.443	147	9
Eddie Joost	1954	PHA	AL	38	SS	57	.362/.474/.489	.431	137	6
Joe Cronin	1944	BOS	AL	38	1B	226	.241/.358/.356	.328	108	5
Dickey Pearce	1874	BR2	NA	38	SS	261	.294/.310/.298	.276	101	4
Candy Nelson	1887	NY4/NY1	AA	38	OF	315	.243/.378/.270	.316	101	3
Bill Dahlen	1908	BSN	NL	38	SS	567	.239/.296/.307	.275	101	3
Monte Cross	1907	PHA	AL	38	SS	288	.206/.316/.282	.282	103	1
Willie Keeler	1910	NY1	NL	38	OF	13	.300/.462/.300	.374	125	1
Frankie Crosetti	1948	NYA	AL	38	2B	16	.286/.375/.429	.356	109	0
Chris Speier	1988	SFN	NL	38	2B	196	.216/.311/.333	.293	98	0
Herman Long	1904	PHI	NL	38	2B	4	.250/.250/.250	.225	80	0
Billy Jurges	1946	CHN	NL	38	SS	265	.222/.351/.281	.303	99	0
Leo Durocher	1943	BRO	NL	38	SS	19	.222/.263/.222	.227	75	-1
Sparky Adams	1932	SLN	NL	38	3B	142	.276/.352/.315	.310	97	-2
George Davis	1908	CHA	AL	38	2B	467	.217/.298/.255	.261	98	-2
Mark Belanger	1982	LAN	NL	38	SS	55	.240/.309/.260	.268	87	-2
Tommy Corcoran	1907	NY1	NL	38	2B	233	.265/.288/.323	.272	98	-2
Alvin Dark	1960	PHI/ML1	NL	38	3B	371	.265/.321/.351	.301	96	-2
Ossie Bluege	1938	WS1	AL	38	2B	206	.261/.340/.337	.310	91	-4
Jack Glasscock	1895	LS3/WSN	NL	38	SS	190	.276/.337/.333	.307	91	-4
Luis Aparicio	1972	BOS	AL	38	SS	469	.257/.299/.351	.288	99	-5
Jose Valentin	2007	NYN	NL	38	2B	182	.241/.302/.373	.298	90	-5
Mike Bordick	2003	TOR	AL	38	SS	379	.274/.340/.382	.323	97	-5
Bill Russell	1986	LAN	NL	38	OF	235	.250/.302/.301	.275	88	-6
Paul Richards	1946	DET	AL	38	C	162	.201/.315/.266	.276	89	-6
Skeeter Webb	1947	DET	AL	38	2B	86	.203/.267/.241	.238	76	-6
Jose Vizcaino	2006	SFN/SLN	NL	38	SS	159	.232/.314/.317	.289	87	-6
Dave Concepcion	1986	CIN	NL	38	SS	341	.260/.314/.344	.295	94	-7
Bert Campaneris	1980	CAL	AL	38	SS	227	.252/.300/.329	.282	87	-7
Cal Ripken	1998	BAL	AL	38	3B	658	.271/.331/.389	.320	95	-8
George McBride	1918	WS1	AL	38	SS	53	.132/.132/.132	.119	41	-8
Omar Vizquel	2005	SFN	NL	38	SS	631	.271/.341/.350	.314	96	-8
Rabbit Maranville	1929	BSN	NL	38	SS	611	.284/.344/.366	.320	93	-10
Larry Bowa	1983	CHN	NL	38	SS	538	.267/.312/.339	.292	94	-12
Bobby Wallace	1911	SLA	AL	38	SS	458	.232/.312/.271	.274	88	-12
Ivy Olson	1923	BRO	NL	38	2B	307	.260/.296/.315	.276	85	-13
Dave Bancroft	1929	BRO	NL	38	SS	387	.277/.331/.332	.302	88	-13
Pee Wee Reese	1956	BRO	NL	38	SS	633	.257/.322/.344	.301	95	-17
Phil Rizzuto	1954	NYA	AL	38	SS	351	.195/.291/.251	.257	81	-17
Barry Larkin	2002	CIN	NL	38	SS	561	.245/.305/.367	.297	91	-17
Alan Trammell	1996	DET	AL	38	SS	206	.233/.267/.259	.240	69	-19
Mickey Doolan	1918	BRO	NL	38	2B	330	.179/.233/.218	.210	73	-22
Bones Ely	1901	PIT/PHA	NL	38	SS	422	.212/.232/.265	.222	73	-31

Moving onto age 38, we're down to 45 players. Honus Wagner really was a player, huh? Still putting up forty runs above average at age 38. We're down to three full-time players who were able to hit at league average.

player	year	tm	lg	age	pos	pa	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	wOBA+	BRAA
Luke Appling	1946	CHA	AL	39	SS	653	.309/.384/.378	.347	112	25
Cal Ripken	1999	BAL	AL	39	3B	351	.340/.368/.584	.402	117	20
Honus Wagner	1913	PIT	NL	39	SS	444	.300/.349/.385	.329	109	13
Dave Concepcion	1987	CIN	NL	39	2B	310	.319/.377/.384	.343	106	4
Dickey Pearce	1875	SL2	NA	39	SS	318	.248/.264/.286	.246	98	2
Bill Dahlen	1909	BSN	NL	39	SS	226	.234/.332/.305	.297	105	2
Omar Vizquel	2006	SFN	NL	39	SS	646	.295/.361/.389	.336	101	1
Joe Cronin	1945	BOS	AL	39	3B	11	.375/.545/.375	.442	146	1
Barry Larkin	2003	CIN	NL	39	SS	264	.282/.345/.382	.326	99	1
Phil Rizzuto	1955	NYA	AL	39	SS	168	.259/.369/.322	.324	101	1
Chris Speier	1989	SFN	NL	39	SS	42	.243/.333/.351	.311	103	1
Bobby Wallace	1912	SLA	AL	39	SS	367	.241/.332/.316	.300	98	0
Billy Jurges	1947	CHN	NL	39	SS	49	.200/.347/.325	.314	97	0
Ivy Olson	1924	BRO	NL	39	SS	30	.222/.300/.259	.263	82	-1
Bert Campaneris	1981	CAL	AL	39	3B	88	.256/.295/.341	.283	92	-2
George McBride	1919	WS1	AL	39	SS	43	.200/.256/.275	.241	78	-3
Ozzie Smith	1993	SLN	NL	39	SS	596	.288/.337/.356	.311	97	-3
Dave Bancroft	1930	NY1	NL	39	SS	19	.059/.158/.118	.141	40	-4
George Davis	1909	CHA	AL	39	1B	79	.132/.253/.147	.207	76	-4
Eddie Joost	1955	BOS	AL	39	SS	137	.193/.299/.336	.288	90	-5
Ossie Bluege	1939	WS1	AL	39	1B	66	.153/.242/.153	.199	59	-8
Sparky Adams	1933	SLN/CIN	NL	39	3B	616	.257/.315/.305	.284	94	-8
Skeeter Webb	1948	PHA	AL	39	2B	54	.148/.148/.185	.146	45	-9
Bones Ely	1902	WS1	AL	39	SS	402	.262/.301/.310	.277	89	-12
Rabbit Maranville	1930	BSN	NL	39	SS	611	.281/.344/.367	.320	91	-15
Luis Aparicio	1973	BOS	AL	39	SS	549	.271/.324/.309	.289	92	-17
Pee Wee Reese	1957	BRO	NL	39	3B	372	.224/.306/.248	.264	83	-21
Larry Bowa	1984	CHN	NL	39	SS	420	.223/.274/.269	.249	81	-25

Age 39 cuts us down to 28 players and two full-time league average performers.

player	year	tm	lg	age	pos	pa	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	wOBA+	BRAA
Luke Appling	1947	CHA	AL	40	SS	568	.306/.386/.412	.358	114	26
Barry Larkin	2004	CIN	NL	40	SS	384	.289/.352/.419	.340	103	4
Honus Wagner	1914	PIT	NL	40	SS	605	.252/.317/.317	.290	99	2
Bill Dahlen	1910	BRO	NL	40	#N/A	2	.000/.000/.000	.000	0	-1
Leo Durocher	1945	BRO	NL	40	2B	5	.200/.200/.200	.180	58	-1
Pee Wee Reese	1958	LAN	NL	40	SS	175	.224/.337/.381	.321	100	-1
Phil Rizzuto	1956	NYA	AL	40	SS	58	.231/.310/.231	.261	80	-3
Cal Ripken	2000	BAL	AL	40	3B	339	.256/.310/.453	.327	94	-3
George McBride	1920	WS1	AL	40	SS	43	.220/.256/.244	.230	70	-4
Dickey Pearce	1876	SL3	NL	40	SS	105	.206/.229/.216	.204	77	-5
Bobby Wallace	1913	SLA	AL	40	SS	164	.211/.293/.245	.256	86	-5
Ozzie Smith	1994	SLN	NL	40	SS	423	.262/.326/.349	.304	93	-8
Sparky Adams	1934	CIN	NL	40	3B	300	.252/.307/.317	.283	88	-9
Rabbit Maranville	1931	BSN	NL	40	SS	620	.260/.329/.317	.297	93	-10
Larry Bowa	1985	CHN/NYN	NL	40	SS	228	.234/.276/.304	.261	84	-12
Dave Concepcion	1988	CIN	NL	40	2B	215	.198/.265/.244	.238	79	-12
Omar Vizquel	2007	SFN	NL	40	SS	561	.246/.305/.316	.282	85	-25

Age 40 sees us down to 17 players, and only two above average performers. Even the great Wagner finally started showing the effects of age at this point, although he rebounded to put up 23 BRAA in his age 41 season and 17 BRAA in his age 42 season before his final season at age 43 where he put up 2 BRAA.

Here are the totals for everyone in this list from age 35 on.

Player	PA	wOBA+	BRAA
Honus Wagner	4740	119	224
Luke Appling	3919	113	157
Eddie Joost	1748	116	66
Candy Nelson	2056	110	64
Joe Cronin	1020	122	58
George Davis	2206	107	43
Derek Jeter	712	115	36
Barry Larkin	2521	103	16
Bill Dahlen	2468	103	15
Miguel Tejada	673	106	12
Tony Lazzeri	244	119	12
Willie Keeler	407	109	8
Pee Wee Reese	3082	103	7
Ernie Johnson	405	105	7
Ozzie Smith	3901	101	6
Jack Glasscock	1713	101	4
Joe Tinker	91	107	2
Bobby Wallace	2763	98	1
Chris Speier	1010	101	1
Ed Caskin	4	157	1
Lou Boudreau	2	0	-1
John Morrill	9	80	-1
Jimmy Johnston	965	98	-1
Chick Keating	2	0	-1
Nomar Garciaparra	350	98	-1
John Valentin	242	97	-1
Dave Altizer	85	93	-1
Lou Merloni	21	76	-2
Ivan DeJesus	18	60	-2
Phil Rizzuto	2318	98	-2
Nolen Richardson	106	89	-3
Paul Popovich	44	76	-3
Frankie Crosetti	595	100	-3
Tim Foli	41	73	-3
Roger Peckinpaugh	414	97	-3
Billy Klaus	19	29	-4
Hank Schreiber	18	21	-4
Marty Marion	213	93	-5
Art Fletcher	997	101	-5
Eddie Bressoud	76	73	-5
Mick Kelleher	56	66	-5
Bill Almon	112	80	-6
Alan Strange	167	88	-6
Dal Maxvill	94	75	-6
John McDonald	155	85	-6
Ed McKean	297	93	-7
Alvin Dark	2099	98	-7
Frank Shugart	445	93	-7
Dickie Thon	272	90	-8
Gil English	85	66	-8
Paul Richards	416	95	-8
Wayne Tolleson	81	59	-9
Alan Trammell	1210	97	-9
Alvaro Espinoza	75	56	-9
Leo Durocher	239	86	-10
Roy Hughes	296	85	-11
Germany Smith	182	78	-11
Greg Gagne	1033	93	-12
Jose Valentin	1291	96	-12
Ed Holly	415	87	-13
Fred Stanley	258	79	-13
Orlando Cabrera	702	92	-14
Mike Bordick	1681	96	-14
Walt Weiss	957	95	-14
Billy Rogell	261	81	-15
Garry Templeton	289	79	-16
Monte Cross	1623	97	-17
Dave Bancroft	1920	95	-18
George Wright	189	61	-18
Billy Jurges	1321	94	-19
Joe Boley	280	78	-19
Alfredo Griffin	259	74	-20
Ossie Bluege	1134	92	-21
Leo Cardenas	418	81	-21
Ozzie Guillen	363	80	-21
Alex Grammas	300	77	-22
Dickey Pearce	1361	89	-22
Luis Aparicio	2832	99	-22
Craig Reynolds	789	88	-22
Mark Christman	556	85	-23
Freddie Patek	667	88	-23
Bill Russell	1203	91	-25
Cal Ripken	3867	97	-25
Fred Pfeffer	580	86	-26
Rafael Belliard	238	60	-28
Jose Vizcaino	942	88	-33
Bob Lillis	691	79	-33
Don Kessinger	871	86	-34
Dick Groat	1390	92	-36
Sparky Adams	2538	96	-37
Gene Michael	791	82	-39
Rabbit Warstler	1115	84	-39
Royce Clayton	1271	89	-42
Davy Force	955	82	-42
Mark Belanger	719	74	-50
Mickey Doolan	982	79	-51
Roy McMillan	1213	82	-54
Omar Vizquel	3888	94	-58
Herman Long	1351	84	-60
Bert Campaneris	1641	86	-63
Dave Concepcion	2666	92	-65
Tommy Corcoran	1911	89	-67
George McBride	1294	79	-67
Wally Gerber	1280	82	-68
Ivy Olson	2257	88	-84
Larry Bowa	2683	90	-86
Skeeter Webb	1289	74	-92
Rabbit Maranville	3741	88	-109
Bones Ely	2409	83	-110

One last list. Here are the totals from age 36 on.

Player	PA	wOBA+	BRAA
Honus Wagner	4176	116	170
Luke Appling	3310	115	153
Candy Nelson	1541	105	37
Eddie Joost	1083	114	31
Joe Cronin	419	120	22
George Davis	1592	103	16
Chris Speier	773	103	8
Willie Keeler	407	109	8
Ernie Johnson	309	108	8
Tony Lazzeri	102	123	6
Bill Dahlen	1874	102	6
Barry Larkin	1839	101	4
Ozzie Smith	3248	100	2
Frankie Crosetti	85	107	2
Monte Cross	1067	102	1
Ed Holly	48	105	1
Jack Glasscock	1096	100	0
Alan Strange	40	96	-1
Roger Peckinpaugh	239	98	-1
Dal Maxvill	10	57	-1
Joe Tinker	11	52	-1
Alvin Dark	1479	99	-2
Bill Almon	29	64	-3
Leo Durocher	67	83	-3
Phil Rizzuto	1715	98	-3
Nomar Garciaparra	169	92	-3
Jimmy Johnston	622	96	-4
Joe Boley	39	66	-4
Jose Valentin	793	97	-4
Pee Wee Reese	2472	102	-4
Leo Cardenas	210	89	-6
Billy Jurges	783	97	-6
Mark Christman	121	80	-7
Freddie Patek	339	92	-7
Ozzie Guillen	113	80	-7
Billy Rogell	61	51	-8
Art Fletcher	422	97	-8
Paul Richards	416	95	-8
Rafael Belliard	93	68	-8
Bill Russell	713	94	-9
Alfredo Griffin	98	66	-10
Alex Grammas	109	67	-10
Greg Gagne	550	89	-12
Craig Reynolds	377	86	-12
Bobby Wallace	2222	95	-13
Bob Lillis	256	78	-14
Ossie Bluege	776	92	-14
Gene Michael	346	85	-14
Cal Ripken	3255	97	-16
Mike Bordick	1041	94	-17
Dickey Pearce	1194	90	-18
Walt Weiss	545	88	-19
Dick Groat	739	89	-20
Don Kessinger	589	87	-22
Mickey Doolan	461	80	-23
Davy Force	525	81	-24
Jose Vizcaino	743	89	-25
Rabbit Warstler	600	82	-25
Fred Pfeffer	530	85	-25
Sparky Adams	2326	97	-26
Luis Aparicio	2161	98	-26
Royce Clayton	708	86	-27
Roy McMillan	801	85	-28
Herman Long	807	86	-29
Alan Trammell	767	86	-32
Mark Belanger	488	75	-33
George McBride	788	80	-38
Dave Bancroft	1401	88	-41
Dave Concepcion	2075	94	-42
Tommy Corcoran	1312	89	-44
Bert Campaneris	1033	83	-46
Wally Gerber	826	79	-51
Skeeter Webb	755	73	-58
Ivy Olson	1599	88	-59
Omar Vizquel	3232	93	-63
Larry Bowa	2113	90	-67
Bones Ely	1866	85	-78
Rabbit Maranville	3481	88	-101

Bones Ely must have had a hell of a glove. Great name too.

I'll reiterate again, these are not position-adjusted, or compared to replacement level. Over a full season, a shortstop who hit at a league average level would be worth somewhere around 25-30 runs above a replacement level shortstop.

Still, overall this isn't very encouraging in regards to the prospects of Jeter's remaining career, and I haven't really delved into the expected defensive decline of a player in their mid-30s. However, Jeter's already demonstrated the ability to defy expectations, so maybe he can continue to do so. I'll get into Jeter's specific CAIRO career forecast when I start up the season preview pieces.

Sporting News: Yankees privately pushed Jeter to improve defense

2010-02-10T10:53:00.002-05:00

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman had dinner with shortstop Derek Jeter following the 2007 season and informed him that his defense must improve, according to the New York Post.

At that time, Jeter was being criticized by statisticians for his eroding defensive ability, and the Yankees also were privately concerned, according to the newspaper. There was even some thought of a position change.

So, Jeter worked out that offseason at the Athletes Compound in Tampa with the director of the facility. His defense improved some in 2008 and returned to Gold Glove level in 2009.

"The player Derek is, he took to it and said, 'Watch, I will prove you wrong,' " Cashman told the newspaper.

Interesting, I've never heard about this before. Although I'd dispute the phrase about 'returned to Gold Glove level'. Public pronouncements by the Yankees were generally in the tone of "you can't trust those damn statistics. You need to use your eyes."

NY Post: Cashman: No new pacts for big three

2010-02-09T09:20:00.001-05:00

When Brian Cashman looks at Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Joe Girardi, the Yankees’ GM paints his shortstop, closer and manager with the same brush.

And with spring training opening next week in Tampa, Cashman has no plans to stray from his plan of not negotiating with them. All three contracts are in the final year.

“I don’t think you can separate one from the other,” Cashman explained. “I am not saying they are the same, but the questions will come, ‘If you did one, why didn’t you do the other?’ If this was Kansas City, it would be different — but it’s not.”

I think this is the right approach, although I really don't want to even think about the possibility of Mo pitching in another uniform.

CNNSI: Yankees sign Marcus Thames

2010-02-08T15:49:00.001-05:00

The Yankees have signed outfielder Marcus Thames to a non-roster contract, league sources tell SI.com. Thames should compete with Randy Winn and Brett Gardner for playing time

Thames hit .252 with 13 home runs and 36 RBIs with Detroit last year. He broke in with Yankees in 2002, and hit his first home run off Randy Johnson. He went to the Rangers in 2003 and spent the past six years with the Tigers. Thames has played 252 of his 319 career outfield games in leftfield. He is the second ex-Tigers outfielder the Yankees have added this offseason, having traded for Curtis Granderson earlier.

Can Magglio Ordonez be far behind?

How Well Would an MLB All Star Team Project Over a Full Season?

2010-02-08T09:32:00.003-05:00

A few posts back, fgasparini wondered what a team that would project to win 162 games would like. While it's not exactly what he asked for, I thought I could look at how a team comprised of the best players in baseball heading into 2010 would project. So using CAIRO projections for offense and defense, here are the players I have projected as the best at each position for 2010.

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	RS
Joe Mauer	26	MIN	AL	C	.325	.415	.492	.406	15
Albert Pujols	30	SLN	NL	1B	.314	.427	.587	.441	9
Chase Utley	31	PHI	NL	2B	.286	.382	.511	.383	13
Alex Rodriguez	34	NYA	AL	3B	.282	.389	.546	.396	-6
Hanley Ramirez	26	FLO	NL	SS	.310	.390	.530	.391	-6
Matt Holliday	30	SLN	NL	LF	.300	.384	.499	.391	9
Grady Sizemore	27	CLE	AL	CF	.261	.368	.469	.370	6
J.D. Drew	34	BOS	AL	RF	.269	.383	.472	.371	4
David Ortiz	34	BOS	AL	DH	.264	.371	.507	.374	0

wOBA: Weighted on-base average.
RS: Projected defensive runs saved compared to average, using zone rating and UZR.

In order to appear impartial, I've listed the second best player at each position besides Alex Rodriguez, since I have Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Nick Johnson all projected as the best player at their respective positions.

Since this is all theoretical, I'm going to assume these players can all play 162 games and there's no bench. If we give them enough plate appearances to add up to 4100 outs at the plate, here's how their total offense and defense would look.

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	BR	RS	WAR	Outs
Grady Sizemore	755	.261	.368	.469	.370	114	5	4.7	477
Hanley Ramirez	755	.310	.390	.530	.391	132	-5	6.0	460
Chase Utley	755	.286	.382	.511	.383	125	12	6.6	466
Albert Pujols	755	.314	.427	.587	.441	145	8	6.8	432
Joe Mauer	750	.325	.415	.492	.406	123	12	7.2	439
Alex Rodriguez	754	.282	.389	.546	.396	131	-5	4.9	461
J.D. Drew	750	.269	.383	.472	.371	112	3	3.7	462
Matt Holliday	750	.300	.384	.499	.391	120	8	5.1	462
David Ortiz	700	.264	.371	.507	.374	118	0	2.9	441
	6774	.290	.390	.513	.391	1127	38	48.1	4100

BR: Batting runs using linear weights(absolute runs compared to zero, not position-adjusted).
RS: Projected defensive runs saved compared to average, using zone rating and UZR.
WAR: Wins above replacement (position-adjusted batting runs above replacement plus RS, divided by 10).

Not too bad.

As far as the pitching staff, I just picked the top five starters in terms of projected WAR using CAIRO, then removed A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain from the list to again conceal my bias. Then I added in the six best projected relievers, pro-rating Heath Bell's innings(#6) to get the total staff's innings to add up to 1440. Here's how that looks.

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Role	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
Roy Halladay	32	PHI	NL	SP	233	206	19	40	204	3.18	3.03	3.12	65.8	6.6
CC Sabathia	29	NYA	AL	SP	230	206	17	56	203	3.48	3.24	3.26	63.9	6.4
Felix Hernandez	23	SEA	AL	SP	215	193	17	70	191	3.50	3.25	3.52	59.2	5.9
Tim Lincecum	25	SFN	NL	SP	180	144	10	62	204	3.05	2.80	2.77	53.5	5.4
Javier Vazquez	33	NYA	AL	SP	211	194	22	49	205	3.76	3.52	3.37	52.0	5.2
Mariano Rivera	40	NYA	AL	RP	69	51	5	11	72	2.55	2.36	2.70	20.9	2.1
Joe Nathan	35	MIN	AL	RP	70	46	6	21	82	2.64	2.44	2.89	20.2	2.0
Jonathan Papelbon	29	BOS	AL	RP	68	55	5	19	76	2.68	2.57	2.86	19.5	1.9
Jonathan Broxton	25	LAN	NL	RP	71	48	4	27	96	2.81	2.65	2.49	17.7	1.8
Joakim Soria	25	KCA	AL	RP	58	47	5	17	64	3.02	2.80	3.18	14.3	1.4
Heath Bell	32	SDN	NL	RP	34	23	2	12	36	3.04	2.81	3.04	7.6	0.8
					1440	1213	113	384	1434	3.24	3.02	3.12	394.5	39.4

RA: Earned plus unearned runs allowed per nine.
FIP : Fielding Independent Pitching.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level pitcher.
WAR: RSAR divided by ten.

So you've got an offense that would project to score 1127 runs, and a defense that would save about 38 runs, along with a pitching staff that would project to allow 518 runs. So, RS = 1130. RA = 480. Plugging that into Pythagenpat gives us a winning percentage of around .839, or 136 wins.

In terms of WAR, you'd have 48.1 WAR from the position players and 39.4 from the pitchers, a total of 87.6. If a replacement level team is around 48 wins, that's 136 wins as well.

2010 Projecting Standings - CHONE

2010-02-06T11:11:00.002-05:00

I threw Sean Smith a few bucks to tweak CHONE to be biased for the Yankees, and here's how his projected standings look for the AL East.

AL East
New York Yankees: 99-63
Boston Red Sox: 93-69
Tampa Bay Rays: 88-74
Baltimore Orioles: 75-87
Toronto Blue Jays: 68-94

It cost me a little bit more, but I was able to get him to add this as well.

Normally, projections do not forecast the same range of wins and losses as will happen in real life. We expect that a few teams will win 95+ games, but are not sure exactly which ones, and if you pick any one team (Yankees excepted) the odds are they won't win that many games.

But yet I'm projecting 99 wins for the defending world champions. I think this is the highest projection I've ever had, for any team. I had them at 97 last year and they beat it by 6. I like the moves they have made in the last year. Curtis Granderson is a tremendous player who helps on offense and defense (at least against righties). Javier Vazquez was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and Nick Johnson is OBP Jesus. The Yankees are insanely talented, even more so than usual. The breaks of the season could mean that Boston wins the East, or even Tampa Bay, but the talent spread is so huge in this division that Baltimore and Toronto have basically no chance.

MLB.com: Hank: Yankees can repeat in 2010

2010-02-05T09:57:00.001-05:00

NEW YORK -- Hank Steinbrenner believes the Yankees are in position to repeat as World Series champions after adding pitcher Javier Vazquez and outfielder Curtis Granderson during the offseason.

The Yankees' co-chairman spoke with the Associated Press on Thursday in Tampa, Fla., speaking highly of general manager's Brian Cashman's offseason moves to bolster New York's rotation and change the appearance of New York's outfield.

complete hot stove coverage

"The two trades that Brian did, I was really pleased with and very proud of," Steinbrenner told the AP. "I think that is going to make a big difference for us."

Acquired from the Braves, Vazquez will slide into a rotation that already includes CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte, with the fifth starter still yet to be decided.

Yeah, like a platoon CF and a starter who's going to put up an ERA of 4.91 are really going to make the team better...

2010 CAIRO Projections v0.3

2010-02-04T09:36:00.001-05:00

I've uploaded the latest version of CAIRO, which can be downloaded here. In addition to making roster updates:

- I've added a tab for the latest projected standings.
- I've added a tab that shows the depth charts I'm using for my simulations. This includes the average wins and saves for the pitchers as they came out in the simulations.

Both of these are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TOO SERIOUSLY. Unfortunately, some people are too stupid to realize this even though I'm spelling it out as explicitly as I can. So if you're one of those people, try to read the first sentence in this paragraph again, very slowly. Feel free to move your lips while doing so if you have to.

Here's how the latest projected standings look.

AL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA
NYA	99.1	62.9	879	698	56.0	25.0	93-106	837-921	655-741
TAM	94.9	67.1	790	655	21.0	35.0	89-101	750-830	619-691
BOS	94.5	67.5	824	684	23.0	39.0	88-101	783-864	647-720
BAL	71.0	91.0	755	848	0.0	0.0	65-77	720-790	804-891
TOR	70.4	91.6	668	791	0.0	0.0	64-77	630-706	752-831
AL Central	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA
CHA	86.6	75.4	750	707	68.5	0.0	81-92	710-789	670-743
MIN	82.0	80.1	787	777	24.5	1.0	76-88	750-824	741-813
CLE	77.4	84.6	780	810	5.5	0.0	71-83	739-821	770-850
DET	72.1	89.9	709	800	1.5	0.0	66-78	672-747	761-840
KC	70.4	91.6	721	839	0.0	0.0	64-77	685-756	798-880
AL West	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA
TEX	81.5	80.5	767	768	34.0	0.0	75-88	732-802	730-806
LAA	80.4	81.6	747	736	30.5	0.0	74-87	712-783	697-774
SEA	80.0	82.0	715	706	24.0	0.0	74-86	677-753	671-741
OAK	78.2	83.8	679	709	12.5	0.0	72-84	642-716	667-751
NL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA
WAS	71.3	90.7	702	782	2.0	0.0	65-77	657-747	748-817
FLA	72.3	89.7	722	802	2.0	0.5	66-79	684-760	763-842
NYN	80.1	81.9	735	751	4.5	5.0	74-86	700-769	711-792
ATL	85.2	76.8	731	694	22.0	13.0	80-91	693-769	658-730
PHI	90.1	71.9	803	703	70.5	3.5	83-97	762-844	666-739
NL Central	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA
STL	90.5	71.5	717	638	56.5	9.0	84-97	677-757	602-675
CHN	86.2	75.8	729	679	24.5	17.3	80-92	697-760	645-713
CIN	84.2	77.8	731	705	12.0	15.3	78-90	696-766	669-741
MIL	80.9	81.1	736	738	6.5	5.0	74-88	697-774	697-779
PIT	72.6	89.4	671	745	0.0	0.0	65-80	635-706	703-787
HOU	66.1	95.9	650	796	0.5	0.0	60-72	618-682	756-836
NL West	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA
LAN	91.4	70.6	726	632	66.0	4.3	85-98	686-767	596-667
ARI	82.9	79.1	738	722	14.5	11.3	77-89	700-777	686-757
COL	82.5	79.5	802	787	15.5	9.3	76-89	761-843	738-836
SD	78.2	83.8	628	655	3.5	3.3	72-84	591-665	623-687
SF	77.1	84.9	679	713	0.5	3.0	71-83	643-715	678-749

W: Average wins over 100 iterations
L: Average losses over 100 iterations
RF: Average runs for/scored over 100 iterations
RA: Average runs allowed over 100 iterations
Div: # of times team won division over 100 iterations
WC: # of times team won wild card over 100 iterations
Std W, RF, RA: W, RF and RA within one standard deviation in either direction

NY Post - Sherman: Joba's Bullpen Call

2010-02-03T09:06:00.002-05:00

It was impossible to ignore, and the Yankees didn't ignore it.

Words were not needed. Joba Chamberlain's body language screamed confidence and the scoreboard flashed 97 mph. Here at the end of his most taxing season, Chamberlain was a strutting fire-breather again. In the postseason. As a reliever.

The difference from the starter who too often was tentative and too frequently throwing fastballs at 89-91 mph was stark. As one Yankees official noted recently, "It was hard to miss."

The transformation was so blatant, in fact, that the No. 5 starter competition between Chamberlain and Phil Hughes is almost over two weeks before pitchers and catchers even report.

Another year of this crap...

Thinking About the 2010 MLB Schedule

2010-02-02T16:20:00.002-05:00

Currently, when I try to figure out how the Yankees as a team project in 2010 on a spreadsheet, I end up with them projecting to score about 873 runs and allow something like 695, which would essentially mean they are about a 98 win team as presently constituted. However, when I put the projections into Diamond Mind to simulate the season multiple times, they were coming out as a 102 win team and scoring about 40-45 more runs than expected. While I have the gap between the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays at about six games in total, the Yankees are coming out about eight games better than the Red Sox and 12 games better than Tampa Bay.

This generally means there's something up with the depth charts I'm using in the simulator not lining up with what I want them to be, which is something I'm still messing around with and will continue to mess around with through spring training. However, something I failed to consider was brought up by sam at this thread on Fangraphs. What about the strength of schedule?

So, I figured I'd use the results of my first set of projected standings to figure that out. Before I post the numbers, I need to make a confession. The only reason CAIRO was developed was because I felt other projetion systems were too harsh on the Yankees and wanted a system that would make them look better than any other. You may wonder why someone would go to the trouble of doing that, but it makes perfect sense. By doing so, I can pretend that the objective facts I know about the team are completely meaningless and I can use things that I know have no basis in reality and stick my head in the sand like an ostrich while pretending the Yankees are awesome, even if I actually know they aren't! It makes sense, right?

But I digress.

Anyway, here's a look at the AL strength of schedule, sorted in descending order of difficulty.

	AL
Rank	TM	SOS	W
1	Blue Jays	.519	84.0
2	Orioles	.512	83.0
3	Athletics	.505	81.8
4	Red Sox	.504	81.7
5	Angels	.504	81.7
6	Royals	.504	81.6
7	Rays	.501	81.2
8	Mariners	.501	81.1
9	Indians	.499	80.8
10	Rangers	.498	80.7
11	Tigers	.497	80.5
12	Yankees	.496	80.4
13	Twins	.494	80.0
14	White Sox	.487	79.0

SOS: Strength of schedule (calculated as the sum of the log5 winning percentage for each team's games using the winning percentages from the most recent run of my Diamond Mind simulations with CAIRO.

W: Win equivalent of SOS (SOS times 162 games)

I'll again say that the projections used to generate this are still not something we want to take too seriously yet, but it is pretty interesting to see this. It also kind of sheds some light on why the White Sox may be projecting better than expected.

Update:

I thought it would tell us more if we look at the actual differences in the schedule, so here it is.

Vs.	Rays	Red Sox	Yankees
Angels	1	2	0
Astros	3	0	3
Athletics	0	0	1
Braves	3	0	0
Dodgers	0	3	3
Giants	0	3	0
Indians	1	0	0
Mariners	0	1	1
Marlins	6	0	0
Mets	0	0	6
Padres	3	0	0
Phillies	0	6	3
Rangers	0	4	2
Rays	0	18	18
Red Sox	18	0	18
Rockies	0	3	0
Royals	1	0	1
Tigers	1	0	2
Twins	3	0	1
White Sox	1	1	0
Yankees	18	18	0

What I did here is remove all the common games from each team. So the Yankees have eight games against LA of Tampa Bay has nine, and Boston has 10. So I just subtract the minimum from all three, which shows the Red Sox having two additional games against LA of A and Tampa Bay having one.

MLB.com: Yankees' roster suits Girardi just fine

2010-02-01T23:24:00.001-05:00

NEW YORK -- The roster that Joe Girardi is considering right now should be, in all likelihood, the group that he takes to Spring Training in two weeks to begin the Yankees' defense of the World Series title.

Two weeks? The offseason sure flies when you win the World Series, huh?

Yankees' Top Prospects: 6-10

2010-01-30T19:51:00.011-05:00

*Click on the pictures to get the full-sized image.

6.) Corban Joseph, 2B/3B, B/T: L/R, 6’0” 188lbs, drafted 28^th in the 4^th round of the 2008 draft, signed for $207K

Strengths: Joseph’s short, powerful swing enables him to make consistent, hard contact. In 2009, over 25% of his BIP were linedrives, and he put up a 140 OPS+ in the pitcher friendly SAL. He backs up his bat with above average plate discipline, and his BB/K ratio was over twice as high as the league average. Joseph hit much better away from Charleston, and could see his power numbers jump with the move to Tampa as Montero, Romine, and David Adams did.

Weaknesses: Despite a strong bat, Joseph does not hit for much power, hitting only 4 HR last year compared to a league average of 5 (for his PA). Drafted as a SS, the Yankees immediately moved him to 2B, and he has played 3B as well. Scouts question whether or not he can play 2B in the majors, or if his power would play at 3B. His speed is only average, so a move to CF is unlikely.

Path to The Big Leagues: Joseph’s linedrive swing and excellent strikezone control has made me a huge fan. His context-neutral stats peg him at 83 BB and 81 SO in 650 PA last year along with 40 2B/3B, and I could see him developing into an everyday player.

There’s not a huge difference between 2B and 3B offensively in the majors, so I don’t worry too much about whether he’s a 3B or 2B so long as he can play one of those positions well.

Total zone seems to agree with scouts on his defense, as it had him -6 at 2B and +6 at 3B. His skill-set may be atypical for a major league 3B, but that doesn’t matter so long as he produces. If he reaches his potential, I see him as a high average, high OBP hitter with 10-15 HR power, but he’s still young enough and talented enough to develop more power. Like Mike Newman at Scouting the Sally, Bill Mueller was the name that came to mind when I was trying to think of a comp for Joseph.

It’s hard to see a spot for Joseph on the Yankees. Cano has a guaranteed contract for the next two years, and the Yankees have club options on him for two years after that. A-Rod is signed for eternity, without the option of shifting to 1B. Most likely Joseph ends up as trade-bait, but that could change if A-Rod has to move off of 3B sooner rather than later or if Cano struggles like he did in 2008.

Grade: B-

7.) Mark Melancon, RP, B/T: R/R, 6’2” 210lbs, drafted 28th in the 9th round of the 2006 draft, signed for $600K

Strengths: Melancon has a low to mid 90’s fastball (averaged 93.0 MPH in the majors) with movement. His power curveball is an out pitch when he commands it, and his changeup is good enough to get out LHB. Melancon excels at the three areas pitchers have the most control over: strikeouts (24.6% of BF) walks (5.5 % of BF), and GB (57.6% of BIP).

Weaknesses: His delivery is high-effort, which has caused elbow problems in the past and still affects his command, especially his curveball – despite a stellar walk rate, he hit a lot of batters and threw too many wild pitches. He’s given up nearly twice as many unearned runs as you’d expect with his ERA, but with as many GB as he gets, that could simply be due to poor playing surfaces and error-prone minor league infielders.

Melancon’s command problems were evident in the majors, walking 5.51 batters per nine while nearly 75% of his pitches were fastballs. It’s a miniscule sample size and was his first taste of the big leagues, but both numbers will have to come down if he is to succeed.

Path to The Big Leagues: Mark should compete for a job in the bullpen out of spring training, and would be first in line to get called up if he doesn’t win a spot. He has the stuff and mentality to be an advantage in late innings, and his performance in the minors suggests the same. CAIRO projects him to be about 0.37 R/9 better than Boone Logan (likely his main competition for the final bullpen spot), and I think Melancon has the much greater chance at surpassing his projection.

Grade: C+. This was a hard decision. I really like Melancon, but I don’t think his stuff or command is good enough to be a closer/bullpen Ace. Furthermore, relievers simply aren’t that valuable compared to starters or position players, and the highest grade I could ever see giving any relief prospect would be a B+ (Neftali Feliz as a reliever, for example).

8.) David Adams, 2B, B/T: R/R, 6’2”, 190lbs, drafted 29^th in the 3^rd round of the 2008 draft, signed for $333K

Strengths: Adams once looked destined for the 1^st round, but a poor junior year caused him to slip to the 4^th round, where the Yankees were happy to pick another college player who’s draft status was recently much higher. He has shown above average contact skills, good plate discipline, and gap power. His arm is well above average for a 2B, and Total Zone has him at +6 at 2B for his career. After not hitting any HR in 304 PA in Charleston, he hit 7 in 265 in Tampa; even more impressive, he still hit for 2B and 3B at a higher rate in Tampa.

Weaknesses: While he should stick at 2B, most scouts doubt his defense or power will be good enough for him to be an everyday player on a good team. Adams is said to be a smart player, but his speed is average at best.

Path to The Big Leagues: Adams was excellent in high A last year, and looks ready to start 2010 in AA Trenton. He has an unorthodox swing, and a good performance in the high minors would assuage many of the doubts surrounding him. Since he’s not on the 40-man roster and doesn’t have the range to play SS, even a September call-up seems unlikely no matter how well he plays. Like Joseph, a spot for Adams on the Yankees is hard to see, but the Yankees can always use another trade chip.

Grade: C+

9.) J.R. Murphy, C, B/T: B/R, 5’10” 170lbs, drafted 27th in the 2nd round of the 2009 draft, signed for $1.25M

Strengths: Murphy has a quick, linedrive swing, good athleticism, a strong arm, and an advanced approach at the plate. His pro debut went as well as could be expected.

Weaknesses: Scouts project Murphy to hit for average power, but it grades out below average now. He has the ability to stick at catcher, but is so raw back there it’s far from a certainty (he’s athletic enough to play LF, RF, or maybe even 3B, though).

Path to The Big Leagues: After his strong debut and advanced approach at the plate, Murphy should start 2010 in Charleston, likely splitting time between catcher and designated hitter. His status improved significantly just before last year’s draft, and hopefully he can show his improvements were real. Murphy is too far away to worry about how he might fit into the Yankees’ plans, especially until we know what position Montero plays, whether Romine is an everyday catcher, and if Murphy can even handle the position.

Grade: C+

10.) Gary Sanchez, C, B/T: R/R, 6’2” 190lbs, signed in 2009 for $3M

Strengths: Sanchez has plus arm strength, plus power, and showed the ability to hit breaking pitches and use all fields.

Weaknesses: He has no experience and almost no 17-year old can be considered a lock to stick at catcher.

Path to The Big Leagues: Sanchez is working out in Tampa right now, and already looks better than he did in the summer, according to Mark Newman. He’ll play in the GCL in 2010, and if everything goes well could be in full-season ball by 18. That the Yankees were willing to give him a $3M signing bonus shows they believe he can be an impact player, but like Murphy, he’s too far away to pencil into any future plans.

Grade: C+

Notes: I should have specified last time, but I’m using John Sickel’s grading scale. If there are any players you want a writeup of, just let me know and I’ll be happy to oblige. There are some others I plan on doing already, but I don’t think I’ll be ranking them 11-whatever I go to.

The system doesn’t look that good after trading our only advanced OF prospect and our best pitching prospect, but Cashman did the right thing to help the Yankees maximize their chances for winning it all again over the next couple seasons.

There’s some potential impact talent in the lower levels too (most teams can say the same, though), and I’ll be watching Heatchott, Murphy, Jose Ramirez, and Sanchez closely. We’ve kept all of our draft picks for 2010 (and will go overslot again), and I’m sure we’ll sign some of the top international free agents as well.

2010 PECOTA Projected Standings

2010-01-28T17:18:00.005-05:00

Baseball Prospectus has released the first version of their projected 2010 MLB standings. Unlike me, they've got the Yankees penciled in for third place. Where CAIRO has the Yanks projected at 102-60, PECOTA says 93-69.

PECOTA and CAIRO are basically dead even on the offense. They're projecting 917 runs and CAIRO says 916. The big difference is the runs allowed. CAIRO says 695, PECOTA says 789.

Here's how the pitching projections differ.

Name	cIP	cR	pIP	pR	dIP	dR
C.C. Sabathia*	215	89	207	95	8	-6
Javier Vazquez	201	86	199	97	2	-11
Andy Pettitte*	173	93	191	106	-18	-13
A.J. Burnett	167	82	175	111	-8	-29
Joba Chamberlain	155	82	144	78	11	4
Chad Gaudin	88	48	101	66	-13	-18
Philip Hughes	70	28	59	30	11	-2
Mariano Rivera	67	18	55	22	12	-4
Alfredo Aceves	57	27	50	26	7	1
Sergio Mitre	56	34	30	21	26	13
David Robertson	56	26	60	29	-4	-3
Edwar Ramirez	42	23	30	16	12	7
Damaso Marte*	37	17	40	22	-3	-5
Jonathan Albaladejo	12	7	40	21	-28	-14
Boone Logan*	7	4	45	28	-38	-25
Royce Ring*	22	11	0	0	22	11
Romulo Sanchez	19	12	0	0	19	12
Mark Melancon	15	8	0	0	15	8
Zachary McAllister	0	0	31	20	-31	-20
Total	1459	695	1457	789	2	-94

cIP: Projected IP in CAIRO

cR: Projected runs allowed in CAIRO

pIP: Projected IP in PECOTA

pR: Projected runs allowed in PECOTA

dIP: cIP minus pIP

dR: cR minus pR

The CAIRO IP are based on the last set of Diamond Mind simulations I ran, averaged over 100 seasons so they don't line up with what the CAIRO spreadsheet, and they need to be tweaked further. I didn't realize Burnett was only pitching 167 innings, for example. However, if you look at where things differ, it's primarily with Burnett and Gaudin in terms of rate of performance, and then in how many innings they're allocating to people like Boone Logan and Jonathan Albaladejo.

Digging a little deeper into what these numbers say, PECOTA isn't displaying total runs allowed so I divided the total 789 runs allowed in their standings by the 673 projected earned runs on the team depth chart to reverse engineer it. Right off the bat this looks off, because the ratio is 1.172. The typical ratio is generally 1.08. In fact, this is really, really, really screwed up. Since 1946, there have been 1507 team seasons. I'm using that cutoff to remove the small glove/ deadball era and the WWII era where you had players who didn't belong in the majors to get closer to the modern error rate. In those 1507 seasons, there have been 59 teams that had a RA/ER ratio that high or worse. So they're either predicting the 2010 Yankees to allow unearned runs at a rate that has happened at a rate of 0.03915063 in the MLB team seasons since 1946, or they screwed something up.

They have some smart guys over there, so my guess is it's the latter. As someone who screws up his spreadsheets constantly, I can understand that. I left a comment over there asking for them to elaborate. So don't worry about these yet.

A List (Continued)

2010-01-28T08:10:00.003-05:00

Following up on the prior post...

Of the 174 players listed, 89 of them had a higher wOBA in their age 35 season and 85 of them had a higher wOBA in their age 36 season.

Congratulations to fgasparini for coming the closest, although I don't reward imprecision so since he hedged his guess he gets NOTHING.

As far as the purpose of the post, sam kind of got it. We tend to think about trends in baseball as significant, and we think linearly. We should not really do that, because the data doesn't really show any predictiveness in trends.

The average player is typically at his most valuable in his late 20s. By the time he hits his mid-30s, he'll have lost somewhere between 10-15% of that value. But it's NOT A LINEAR decline. He may go from a wOBA of .345 at age 28 to a wOBA of .302 at age 35, but it's not necessarily going to happen by losing .043 points of wOBA every season. It also doesn't mean that we should expect him to be worse at age 36 than he was at age 35, because over-weighing one season is silly.

So yes, Randy Winn at age 36 is almost certainly not as good as Randy Winn was at age 28. But just because he had his worst season as a regular at age 35, it doesn't mean he's going to be even worse at age 36.

While the list of players I chose is going to have some selection bias (if a player was really bad at age 36 they wouldn't have gotten 300 ABs), I think/hope it illustrates my point. There's a 40-50% chance Winn will be better at age 36 than he was at age 35, and complaining about signing him because of a poor 2009 is really just complaining to complain.

Revenge of the RLYW

RLYW.net: Looking Ahead to 2010: Jorge Posada

NY Post: Jeter's upcoming deal is all about the time

MLB.com: Aceves hard for Yankees to ignore

RLYW Fantasy League

Spring is for the Young

NY Post: CC knows what Phil and Joba are feeling

NorthJersey.com: Brett Gardner off to races for Yankees

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees, 1:05 PM ET **Game Chatter**

NY Yankees hope Francisco Cervelli's surprising season was more than a fluke

Impressions

NY Post: Worry level spikes as DH scratched

The Hardball Times: Introducing THT Forecasts

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees, 1:05 PM ET **Game Chatter/Live Blog**

Lohud.com: Yanks designate Ramirez for assignment

NJ.com NY Yankees pitcher Javier Vazquez moves ahead of the curve

NY Post: New Yankee Curtis Granderson improving vs. lefties

Assorted News

LoHud: Hughes and Chamberlain throwing BP today

The Star-Ledger: NY Yankees captain Derek Jeter says contract won't become distraction

2010 CAIRO Projections v0.4

NorthJersey.com; Veteran pitcher Chan Ho Park joining Yankees

North Jersey.com: Klapisch: Red Sox answer Yankees’ brawn with defense

MLB.com: Elder statesman Pettitte up to challenge

NY Daily News-Feinsand: Entering contract's final year, New York Yankees' Mariano Rivera taking career one step at a time

MLB.com: Before games, prognosticators clash

MLB.com: Yankees report to camp ready to repeat

MLB.com: Wang agrees to deal with Nationals

How Did DNYS Play in 2009?

RLYW Fantasy Baseball

Yankee catching prospect Jesus Montero gets first taste at corner

Zone Rating for Shortstops ages 36+

What Becomes Of 35 Year Old Shortstops?

Sporting News: Yankees privately pushed Jeter to improve defense

NY Post: Cashman: No new pacts for big three

CNNSI: Yankees sign Marcus Thames

How Well Would an MLB All Star Team Project Over a Full Season?

2010 Projecting Standings - CHONE

MLB.com: Hank: Yankees can repeat in 2010

2010 CAIRO Projections v0.3

NY Post - Sherman: Joba's Bullpen Call

Thinking About the 2010 MLB Schedule

MLB.com: Yankees' roster suits Girardi just fine

Yankees' Top Prospects: 6-10

2010 PECOTA Projected Standings

A List (Continued)

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees, 1:05 PM ET Game Chatter

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees, 1:05 PM ET Game Chatter/Live Blog